[1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff] - page 159.

EfterlysT

full member

Activity: 425

Merit: 109

Quote from: kano on September 04, 2013, 09:03:44 PM

Quote from: EfterlysT on September 04, 2013, 08:57:46 PM

BTC round duration: 20 hours and 50 minutes CDF 98.53% Proofs of work: 366,636,418

Crazy stuff..

Not at all.

Firstly, on average, every second block will take more than 86,933,017
Secondly, a variance of 8 times isn't rare ... 8x = 695,464,136
Thirdly, 10x, though rare, it still happens = 869,330,170

If his CDF calculation is correct, then you should expect the current block length once every ~68 blocks

Ok !

kano

legendary

Activity: 4592

Merit: 1851

Linux since 1997 RedHat 4

Quote from: EfterlysT on September 04, 2013, 08:57:46 PM

BTC round duration: 20 hours and 50 minutes CDF 98.53% Proofs of work: 366,636,418

Crazy stuff..

Not at all.

Firstly, on average, every second block will take more than 86,933,017
Secondly, a variance of 8 times isn't rare ... 8x = 695,464,136
Thirdly, 10x, though rare, it still happens = 869,330,170

If his CDF calculation is correct, then you should expect the current block length once every ~68 blocks

EfterlysT

full member

Activity: 425

Merit: 109

BTC round duration: 20 hours and 50 minutes CDF 98.53% Proofs of work: 366,636,418

Crazy stuff..

norpick

newbie

Activity: 32

Merit: 0

not really had much luck in the last few days looking at the Blocks / minting timeline, more high % than low,

DoogieHouser

full member

Activity: 133

Merit: 100

Bitcoin Enthusiast

Quote from: Jayjay04 on September 04, 2013, 02:49:51 PM

this block is painfull

You're not kidding! 18 hours! As if the last one wasn't bad enough (12 hours).

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: norpick on September 04, 2013, 05:57:47 PM

why has it taken so long on this block? would that be due to the diff rise recently?

yes and no. yes in that more diff slows block production no in that 97% is bad and we are up to 97%

yesterday the wheel of fortune had 65 slots the new wheel now has 87 slots. so it is harder to "spin a win".

but the 97% is based with the diff increase accounted for so it is really lousy number.

philipma1957

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Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

block Be gone

norpick

newbie

Activity: 32

Merit: 0

why has it taken so long on this block? would that be due to the diff rise recently?

norpick

newbie

Activity: 32

Merit: 0

Quote from: cspindor on September 04, 2013, 04:25:14 PM

this block is not a good spot.

i was thinking the same thing too......

cspindor

newbie

Activity: 53

Merit: 0

this block is not a good spot.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: TheQuin on September 04, 2013, 02:52:51 PM

Quote from: cspindor on September 04, 2013, 02:12:21 PM

Im invested in bitcoin. I saw bitcoin on Max Keiser show. That is what caused me to find the mining world. I am new to mining, I have 6 usb stick already. I run my system on solar power. (like free) Im looking in to the cointerra, but im thinking December is to long to wait. Plus if they don't ship on time (like bfl). So it mite not be the time to go big, but if I dont go now, will their ever be a better time? the diff increase (wont last) will hurt the profit. we talking months or years of 30% per month???

We just don't know what the future difficulty increases will be. But I would think that it will plateau out at some point. The introduction of ASICs created a gold rush effect. Those that got them early enough made back their money and some. Now there are lots of pre-orders being delivered so the hash rate will continue to rise. There is little point ordering now so the hash rate rise should slow when that filters through to delivery. That's just my opinion but I think the boat sailed long ago on making any profit so I'm not buying more kit but I'm keeping on mining for a bit of a hobby with a few USB sticks.

yeah it is not the time to buy 10's of thousands (usd) worth of gear. Put in a finger or 2 to test the pudding for taste.

I am in a better spot as I made a bit of coins due to the doctor's good bitminter client.

TheQuin

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Activity: 2576

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Freebitco.in Support https://bit.ly/2I9BVS2

Quote from: cspindor on September 04, 2013, 02:12:21 PM

Im invested in bitcoin. I saw bitcoin on Max Keiser show. That is what caused me to find the mining world. I am new to mining, I have 6 usb stick already. I run my system on solar power. (like free) Im looking in to the cointerra, but im thinking December is to long to wait. Plus if they don't ship on time (like bfl). So it mite not be the time to go big, but if I dont go now, will their ever be a better time? the diff increase (wont last) will hurt the profit. we talking months or years of 30% per month???

We just don't know what the future difficulty increases will be. But I would think that it will plateau out at some point. The introduction of ASICs created a gold rush effect. Those that got them early enough made back their money and some. Now there are lots of pre-orders being delivered so the hash rate will continue to rise. There is little point ordering now so the hash rate rise should slow when that filters through to delivery. That's just my opinion but I think the boat sailed long ago on making any profit so I'm not buying more kit but I'm keeping on mining for a bit of a hobby with a few USB sticks.

Jayjay04

legendary

Activity: 1364

Merit: 1000

If someone is interested
Selling my preorder from TerraHash #509

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/terrahash-order-509-to-sell-for-45-ghsec-modular-board-klondike-16-287917

Jayjay04

legendary

Activity: 1364

Merit: 1000

this block is painfull

cspindor

newbie

Activity: 53

Merit: 0

Im invested in bitcoin. I saw bitcoin on Max Keiser show. That is what caused me to find the mining world. I am new to mining, I have 6 usb stick already. I run my system on solar power. (like free) Im looking in to the cointerra, but im thinking December is to long to wait. Plus if they don't ship on time (like bfl). So it mite not be the time to go big, but if I dont go now, will their ever be a better time? the diff increase (wont last) will hurt the profit. we talking months or years of 30% per month???

philipma1957

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Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: cspindor on September 04, 2013, 12:41:47 PM

is the diff really going up that fast/ it seam like the tech wont pay for its self.

please comment

maybe maybe not. hard to tell since the 30% jumps are coming fast and heavy it is scary to think beyond 30-60 days.

but 30% jumps don't inspire confidence in the tech paying off.

30% jumps will not be forever they will level off question is when.

EPOCH has a point about getting into mining vs other btc moves..

If you are really new. I suggest 2 moves get some coins and hold them. Say 2-5 coins

and get a few sticks a hub and a fan mine on bitminter. Buy 6 sticks from a seller like this

http://www.ebay.com/itm/PREORDER-USB-ASIC-MINER-Block-Erupter-333MH-Bitcoin-BTC-Mining-/261274881085?pt=CPUs&hash=item3cd5324c3d

not me I am holding my sticks and mining.

get a hub like this
http://www.amazon.com/ViewHD-Professional-Premium-Quality-Chipset/dp/B00B595GK4/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1378319795&sr=8-1&keywords=viewhd+usb+hub

get a fan like this

http://www.amazon.com/ARCTIC-USB-Powered-Portable-Cooling-Solution/dp/B003XN24GY/ref=pd_bxgy_pc_img_z

you are at 180 for the sticks and 60 for the hub fan not the cheapest hub but the most reliable hub out there. so you spent 240usd for a set it and forget it 2gh of hash. many will say buy the btc and hold so buy 2 btc and hold cost of 260 if you buy from coinbase.

do both you are at 500 spent. with everything in hand. and no more to lose.

Stinky_Pete

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 500

Quote from: Epoch on September 04, 2013, 01:00:05 PM

Quote from: cspindor on September 04, 2013, 12:41:47 PM

is the diff really going up that fast/ it seam like the tech wont pay for its self.

Yes, diff has been going up 20%-35% every 10-12 days for the past few months. And it will likely continue to do so for a while.

This is why a growing number of people are beginning to realize (or at least suspect) that any hardware bought now may not actually pay for itself. Or, at least, not any time soon. The less expensive hardware in terms of $/GH is all pre-order, months away; and the on-hand stuff (ASICMiner blades, sticks, ebay) is very expensive.

Either way it is a big gamble. There may be better choices for investing your $ than in mining hardware right now. If you aren't in the game already, this may not be the best time to start.

Agree

cspindor

newbie

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great info...thanx

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: epg on September 04, 2013, 12:56:33 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on September 04, 2013, 12:24:24 PM

Quote from: cspindor on September 04, 2013, 12:18:34 PM

would someone post some figures from a 10gh blade? how many day currently is it taking 10ghs to make one coin?

10.1 gh for 10 days at a diff of 87 mill will make .59 coins

10.1 gh for 10 days at a diff of 113 mill will make .45 coins

10.1 gh for 10 days at a diff of 147 mill will make .34 coins

so this is a 30 day projection of coins earned for the next 30 days at 30% diff jumps. sooner or later the 30% jumps will level off but as to when that happens Huh

Think you're off by a decimal point there. It'd be 0.059BTC, 0.045, 0.034, etc.

no I did 10 day estimates not 1 day estimates.

Epoch

legendary

Activity: 922

Merit: 1003

Quote from: cspindor on September 04, 2013, 12:41:47 PM

is the diff really going up that fast/ it seam like the tech wont pay for its self.

Yes, diff has been going up 20%-35% every 10-12 days for the past few months. And it will likely continue to do so for a while.

This is why a growing number of people are beginning to realize (or at least suspect) that any hardware bought now may not actually pay for itself. Or, at least, not any time soon. The less expensive hardware in terms of $/GH is all pre-order, months away; and the on-hand stuff (ASICMiner blades, sticks, ebay) is very expensive.

Either way it is a big gamble. There may be better choices for investing your $ than in mining hardware right now. If you aren't in the game already, this may not be the best time to start.

Topic: [1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff] - page 159. (Read 837101 times)