I will make an outlandish guess. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in a year's time. Perhaps I will update then.
We will see a spike in price after the halving, followed by volatile waves of selling and buying and the mother of all short squeezes. If - and I don't know if this is possible - but
if the price can consistently rise and stay between $1200-$3000 USD for at least 2 fiscal quarters - let's say to Thanksgiving? - we will see 'explosive percolation' - there will be such liquidity and price stability that we will see an increase in fiat flowing into and through bitcoin from various sources which will cause demand to increase and shoot up to perhaps $10K-$50K-$100K in a surprisingly short period of time (yes, BurtW, I know your model says it can't go that high this soon, I respectfully disagree
.
I'd expect this to be led by, say, FX currency traders using BTC as a hedge for their trades (the FX market is measured in the trillions of USD), or the BTC supply curve being rapidly recalculated by 'Mr. Market' after first the halving and then the Lightning Network launch. These events will in turn force coins off exchanges and out of the hands last people who'd be willing to trade at $3000 per BTC, and we all realize just how many coins won't sell for that price (or presumably any price) because they're inaccessible/lost/in hands of people who will never sell. That recalculation of both supply and demand will in turn kicks off the FOMO train, and the dumb money will flood in.
The road to $10K and beyond lies through a sprint to to the $1200-$3000 range after the halving. Hang on to your butts, things are juuuuuust about to get interesting.