Topic: 1.2 Ghash for sale - page 2. (Read 4154 times)

Sorry, these numbers are statistically possible - BUT they are improbable!
This means, he could be even so lucky to find 10 blocks solo in one day.

In the longer run however (depending on where he is mining) his income will come closer and closer to the expected level.

So yes:
It is possible to gain more BTC with 1 GH/s than someone with 1.2 GH/s on a lucky/unlucky (depending on who you are) day.
It is far less likely to gain more in a week (actually VERY unlikely) than someone with 200 MH/s more.
It is nearly impossible to have a 1 month luck streak - there might be however people out there, that are experiencing this.


Think of it as the coin toss example:

Tossing a coin just 4 times makes it quite likely that an imbalance is visible.
If you toss it 1 million times, it is far less likely that there is a significant imbalance between heads and tails.

24 hours are just a too small sample size - especially considering you're probably comparing pool payouts and not shares submitted!

I haven't even provided statistics. I haven't finished my 24 hour run yet, for the third time...

Sukrim - You're correct as long as current trends hold and difficulty doesn't decrease somewhere along the way.  There are no guarantees.

Now can you confirm for me, kiwi, and any potential confused readers that kiwi's figures are statistically impossible?

I wrote about buying coins (buying computer hardware is also not that hard in non-US parts of the world by the way - this is why I expect difficulty to rise still...) on exchanges like MtGox or Tradehill. There's no mention of buying hardware in my post.

Once again:
At 0 growth worldwide from this day on, your customer pays ~18.17 USD per mined BTC.

If at any point in these 30 days the USD per BTC rate falls below ~18 on MtGox, it would have been wiser to send the 750 USD there and just place an offer @ 18 USD with the money than paying you. Especially considering that it takes you 30 days to deliver the full amout.

Currently the network is NOT steady, it grows. By over 4% per day. If this continues, your customers will get around 25 BTC, meaning they pay 30 USD/BTC. What's your added value compared to just walking to MtGox and getting 50% more Bitcoins directly in the wallet than waiting 30 days for Bitcoins that effectively cost (taking current numbers into consideration) 30 USD/BTC?

Oh, and by the way, a tipp:
You could save a lot on electricity and noise if you just take the money of your customers to MtGox, buy Bitcoins and send them slowly each day. You will with these prices still have a few left after the contract ends and you don't even need hardware!

If you do the 24 hour run and we compare results I can prove it. Obviously there is nothing for me to compare right now, I haven't even finished a 24 hour run as mentioned previously.

My point is, if you are going to leash the hashing power to someone, at least be honest with how much you can generate.

Kiwi, telling me that you don't like my proposal is one thing.  But at this point, you're basically telling me (and potentially dozens of noobs who don't know any better) that you've found a way to cheat the system.  If you know something we don't, kindly tell us.  Prove that 2+2=5 for you when it equals 4 for everyone else.  Prove it and sell the info here.  People would pay good money to make greater than 1.38BTC per day at this current difficulty level per 1Ghash.  Otherwise, stop with the nonsense.

Let me guess, your day job is selling roulette systems to rubes on the Vegas strip?

You can do all the math you want but in the end the most accurate and reliable way of testing is actually doing it.

Sure I can sit here and do calculations all day about my potential profit but I can never verify it until I do it.

Because neither of us have finished a 24 hour run...

Just face it, you're not profiting, and no one is going to "lease" the hashing power from you. No need to continue justifying your claim.

And if the potential renter can find a way to produce 1.2 Ghash very quickly in the face of skyrocketing GPU costs, ever limiting supplies, and inherent difficulty in maintaining the system, then more power to him.  Once again, this is for people who don't want to build a rig that will be hashing away (heat, noise, etc...) in their kitchen for the foreseeable future.

Buying coins now for 750 USD at 20 USD per BTC: 37,5 BTC

Renting 1200 MH/s for 30 days, estimating that difficulty stays constant (which it most likely WON'T!):

50 / ( (877226.66666667 * 2 ^ 32) / ( 1200 * 1000000 * 60 * 60 * 24 * 30 ) ) = 41.2776117 BTC

This means you buy bitcoins at
750 / 41.2776117 = 18.1696559 USD/BTC
at best (constant difficulty)
For every increase in difficulty you pay this much more per BTC. (50% increase? You pay ~27 USD/BTC!)

Now, if difficulty goes up (and it will!), you are very soon making a worse deal than buying directly.
You are making an even worse deal if the USD/BTC rate falls below 18 USD/BTC in these 30 days, as you could buy then directly and at once.

Math done.

One of the biggest problems with these lease deals, and I've talked about it before, is that you're taking on all the risk without getting the full benefit.

If bitcoin crashes hard then you basically lose everything. You don't even have salvage hardware to fall back on. If bitcoin skyrockets then you'd have been better off buying them. So already the only scenario this pays in is if they stay relatively stable and in that case you need some really good returns relative to buying your own rig to make it worth it since you're taking all the risk. Not only do you not get better returns with this deal than buying your own rig you actually get worse.

Just so I understand, your retort to my irrefutable mathematical evidence is, "Well how about we wait a day and just write down what we mine?"  No thanks.  I'll just stick to the math.

By the way, you've not provided any statistical evidence, so I don't know what it is you're claiming that I'm denying.

Ok, so mine today for 24 hours and I'll do the same, and then report back to me how much you've made

You can't deny statistical evidence.

Let's do a little math, my grammar impaired friend.

But first, let's enter your information into our trusty calculator...

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/old_calculator.php

At 1 Ghash, you'll find a block roughly every 43.5 days.  There are 50 coins per block.  Divide 50 by 43.5 to find out your coins per day and what do you know...  you'll get approximately 1.14BTC per day, on average.  My guess is that you're on Slush's pool or something and your previous shares are being credited to you, only you're forgetting that those shares were earned at the previous difficulty.

At 1.2 Ghash, I will find a block every 36.5 days.  There are 50 coins per block.  Divide 50 by 36.5 and well I'll be... 1.2 Ghash will net you about 1.38BTC per day, only .02BTC more than my offer based on other rough estimates.  So how about we make a deal.  I'll update my daily payout offer at the current difficulty level to 1.38 per day, and you stop accusing me of ripping people off.

If my math is incorrect, let me know.  Otherwise, learn more about the system before spouting off.

Lol this guy is ripping you off, I'm getting more than that at this current difficulty level with 1 GH/s.

At the current difficulty level, the payout (according to my calculations) will be roughly 1.36BTC per 24 hour period.  If the difficulty level changes during your lease time, the payout will adjust as well, exactly as if you'd been mining yourself.

what is your payout level?

yea everything u said its true its not that easy as they make it look like ... but even so you should check your prices, i think they are still high.
thanks ...

Well, first, because you can only build a machine in theory for that money.  Try finding the appropriate cards, motherboards, and power supplies in your town to get 1.2 Ghash, as in, right now.  I live in one of the largest cities in the United States and it's beyond a hassle.  I've got local dealers trying to sell 5870's for $625.00.  You can go online, but by the time you realize that your backordered Tigerdirect cards will not be arriving for at least 1 month, rather than the 5-7 days they quote, the difficulty level will have increased who knows how many times.

Time and price are of the essence and mining equipment is very hard to come by for a lot of people.

Then, assuming you can get the parts right away, you have to build the system, which will be a pain for many people (especially people who've never built a rig before).  Only then can you even start mining.  And when you do begin to mine, there will be a series of loud, hot, open motherboards and wires all over the place.  This doesn't bother me; it probably does bother the wives of many would-be miners.  Aside from the other issues (downtime, pool attacks, persistent monitoring of miners, etc...), like with a car, some people just prefer to lease, rather than own.

With me, I start crediting your account the moment you pay me (and you begin receiving your daily payout the day your payment clears).  Moreover, you don't have to own, maintain, etc... any of the equipment.


At current rates... sure.  Investing in mining is for people who believe the exchange rate will go higher.

I don't get it. You make less than $750/month mining with 1.2 GH/s.