The problem on top of all this is that is if you include the (rare) non-share-chain blocks in your calculation - but don't include the hashes that were used to find those blocks ... so ... your stated luck would be higher than it really is ... hmm that doesn't sound good ... stating it higher than it really is.
In effect, any calculation of luck is ALWAYS going to be higher than actuality because of orphaned/dead shares that never make it onto the share chain.
minus the DOA "should" be closer to actual luck ?
well even taking away the 20% is still good luck & i hope it continues.
mine on !
The only catch of course would be to know if the non-share-chain blocks have roughly the same expected luck as the normal blocks.
i.e. is there some code/network related factor that affects their luck differently to the others?
The assumption would probably be no difference.
A very rough estimate of the non-share-chain blocks work would be 95% of all the pool's stale work - since it is that work (and only that work) that produces those blocks.
"95%" since on average, 19 out of 20 share-chain shares are submitted when there isn't a network block change.
... 30s per share = average 20 share changes per block change (on a 0% diff change), but only one of the 20 is a block change.