[1500 TH] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool - page 587.

lenny_

legendary

Activity: 1036

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DARKNETMARKETS.COM

Quote from: rav3n_pl on March 01, 2013, 02:31:06 AM

We need more power. Pool have to be over 600GH to have chance to make over 3 blocks per day and pay like it should.
NOW is best time to join p2pool ;]

Yeah, but who gonna pay for extra 300Gh/s of GPU hashpower? As we know, FPGA are useless on p2pool, and GPU miners are leaving slowely, moving to newer machines. P2pool has to change its strategy or it will vanish.

rav3n_pl

legendary

Activity: 1361

Merit: 1003

Don`t panic! Organize!

We need more power. Pool have to be over 600GH to have chance to make over 3 blocks per day and pay like it should.
NOW is best time to join p2pool ;]

zvs

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1000

https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com

i've officially made a run for the hillz

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: btharper on February 28, 2013, 01:00:18 PM

Any way to get a more in-depth statistical analysis automated enough to host it somewhere like p2pool.info?

It's possible to automate it. Don't know if p2Pool.info could host it though.

maqifrnswa

sr. member

Activity: 454

Merit: 252

I know it's bad luck and all, but there has been 5 blocks found in the past week (should have been 11-14).

btharper

sr. member

Activity: 389

Merit: 250

Quote from: organofcorti on February 28, 2013, 04:00:57 AM

As a follow up to my last post, here's a better way of judging luck:

the boxplots show the median, quartiles and outliers. The median (the line through the middle of the box) should be ln(2). As you can see, there is significant variation - but not a great deal more variation recently than in previous times.

Quote from: rav3n_pl on February 28, 2013, 02:40:33 AM

Looks like new chapter on NPW about P2Pool is comming

I'm flat out like a lizard drinking atm so if I can make some time for it, sure. But I get a feeling that everytime theres a new p2Pool miner, or new data, someone's going to question whether there's some new problem with the luck. Responding to the same sort of issues every few months is a bit disheartening. It's a Sisyphean task.

Any way to get a more in-depth statistical analysis automated enough to host it somewhere like p2pool.info?

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: kano on February 28, 2013, 05:05:10 AM

Ah well - it just looked like it - but I guess, as we all know, maths often proves something isn't how it looks Cheesy

I know. Everytime I learn something new in probability and statistics I start with an intuitition of what it's about and how it works. I'm almost always wrong.

kano

legendary

Activity: 4592

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Linux since 1997 RedHat 4

Quote from: organofcorti on February 28, 2013, 01:00:26 AM

Just finished a multivariate Augemented Dickey Fuller test on the p2Pool data shares per round data since Novemeber last year, to find if a trend has actually occurred.

p value for trend occurring: 0.96
p value for drift occurring: 0.99
p value for no trend or drift in data: 0.019

So (and check this out, kano Wink

) there has been no trend in the data since Novemeber last year.

Why does it look like there has been some kind of cyclical trend? This is probably due to the method used to illustrate "luck". Any interpretation is likely to vary from actuality in some way, and I recommend you don't use luck charts in general for any important decision about mining.

I'll try to post boxplots and smoothing spline results later.

Ah well - it just looked like it - but I guess, as we all know, maths often proves something isn't how it looks Cheesy

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

As a follow up to my last post, here's a better way of judging luck:

the boxplots show the median, quartiles and outliers. The median (the line through the middle of the box) should be ln(2). As you can see, there is significant variation - but not a great deal more variation recently than in previous times.

Quote from: rav3n_pl on February 28, 2013, 02:40:33 AM

Looks like new chapter on NPW about P2Pool is comming

I'm flat out like a lizard drinking atm so if I can make some time for it, sure. But I get a feeling that everytime theres a new p2Pool miner, or new data, someone's going to question whether there's some new problem with the luck. Responding to the same sort of issues every few months is a bit disheartening. It's a Sisyphean task.

rav3n_pl

legendary

Activity: 1361

Merit: 1003

Don`t panic! Organize!

Looks like new chapter on NPW about P2Pool is comming

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Just finished a multivariate Augemented Dickey Fuller test on the p2Pool data shares per round data since Novemeber last year, to find if a trend has actually occurred.

p value for trend occurring: 0.96
p value for drift occurring: 0.99
p value for no trend or drift in data: 0.019

So (and check this out, kano Wink

) there has been no trend in the data since Novemeber last year.

Why does it look like there has been some kind of cyclical trend? This is probably due to the method used to illustrate "luck". Any interpretation is likely to vary from actuality in some way, and I recommend you don't use luck charts in general for any important decision about mining.

I'll try to post boxplots and smoothing spline results later.

taltamir

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: Red Emerald on February 27, 2013, 11:46:26 PM

Quote from: taltamir on February 27, 2013, 11:36:18 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on February 27, 2013, 11:13:29 PM

Quote from: Aseras on February 27, 2013, 11:10:22 PM

Pool is dying now.. Lost 1/4 of the hashrate. Perhaps it'll come back if there's a good day. Although that would take a 4-7 block streak to bring luck just up to 100%PPS levels for 90 days.

I think it's strange that bad luck streaks at non-PPS pools freak miners out less than bad luck at p2Pool - a pool where a pool op cannot maliciously cause bad luck (lookin' at you, Bitclockers 2011 - early 2012).

I was under the understanding that hashrate has nothing to do with luck.
Successfully finding coins fluctuates and could be said to vary based on luck but hashrate is constant for a given hardware barring bugs.

He is saying that because of the luck, miners are leaving the pool, not that the luck is lowering the hash rate.

I think its also likely that GPU miners are going offline in general and ASIC miners are not pointing at p2pool because of the initial reports of problems with stratum.

Thanks, I misunderstood.
I mixed up this thread and another I have open about a recently reported bug with tanking hashrates that happens on certain miner configurations (for all pools)

Red Emerald

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Quote from: taltamir on February 27, 2013, 11:36:18 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on February 27, 2013, 11:13:29 PM

Quote from: Aseras on February 27, 2013, 11:10:22 PM

Pool is dying now.. Lost 1/4 of the hashrate. Perhaps it'll come back if there's a good day. Although that would take a 4-7 block streak to bring luck just up to 100%PPS levels for 90 days.

I think it's strange that bad luck streaks at non-PPS pools freak miners out less than bad luck at p2Pool - a pool where a pool op cannot maliciously cause bad luck (lookin' at you, Bitclockers 2011 - early 2012).

I was under the understanding that hashrate has nothing to do with luck.
Successfully finding coins fluctuates and could be said to vary based on luck but hashrate is constant for a given hardware barring bugs.

He is saying that because of the luck, miners are leaving the pool, not that the luck is lowering the hash rate.

I think its also likely that GPU miners are going offline in general and ASIC miners are not pointing at p2pool because of the initial reports of problems with stratum.

taltamir

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: organofcorti on February 27, 2013, 11:13:29 PM

Quote from: Aseras on February 27, 2013, 11:10:22 PM

Pool is dying now.. Lost 1/4 of the hashrate. Perhaps it'll come back if there's a good day. Although that would take a 4-7 block streak to bring luck just up to 100%PPS levels for 90 days.

I think it's strange that bad luck streaks at non-PPS pools freak miners out less than bad luck at p2Pool - a pool where a pool op cannot maliciously cause bad luck (lookin' at you, Bitclockers 2011 - early 2012).

I was under the understanding that hashrate has nothing to do with luck.
Successfully finding coins fluctuates and could be said to vary based on luck but hashrate is constant for a given hardware barring bugs.

tiberiandusk

hero member

Activity: 575

Merit: 500

The North Remembers

I switched back to Eclipse for a while. I was getting too many stales because my getblock latency is so high. Seems to be the internet here and there's nothing I can do about it.

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: Aseras on February 27, 2013, 11:10:22 PM

Pool is dying now.. Lost 1/4 of the hashrate. Perhaps it'll come back if there's a good day. Although that would take a 4-7 block streak to bring luck just up to 100%PPS levels for 90 days.

I think it's strange that bad luck streaks at non-PPS pools freak miners out less than bad luck at p2Pool - a pool where a pool op cannot maliciously cause bad luck (lookin' at you, Bitclockers 2011 - early 2012).

Aseras

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Pool is dying now.. Lost 1/4 of the hashrate. Perhaps it'll come back if there's a good day. Although that would take a 4-7 block streak to bring luck just up to 100%PPS levels for 90 days.

eleuthria

legendary

Activity: 1750

Merit: 1007

Quote from: zvs on February 27, 2013, 01:38:26 AM

Quote from: Aseras on February 26, 2013, 03:46:01 PM

Quote from: Subo1977 on February 26, 2013, 01:48:10 PM

Bo One here who Discuss about the l word?

It's pretty obvious something is wrong. normal variance should not be so cyclical.

http://p2pool.info/luck/

I now agree w/ people that something is wrong, but I don't think it's the cyclical nature of the luck, it's the gradual downturn...

stratum is much slower than longpolling, when not mining to localhost

Stratum is not inherently slower than longpolling. In a proper implementation the notification times between long polling and between Stratum are identical (or faster on Stratum since the remote server does less work and requires less burst bandwidth to forward them).

zvs

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1000

https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com

Quote from: Aseras on February 26, 2013, 03:46:01 PM

Quote from: Subo1977 on February 26, 2013, 01:48:10 PM

Bo One here who Discuss about the l word?

It's pretty obvious something is wrong. normal variance should not be so cyclical.

http://p2pool.info/luck/

I now agree w/ people that something is wrong, but I don't think it's the cyclical nature of the luck, it's the gradual downturn...

stratum is much slower than longpolling, when not mining to localhost

rav3n_pl

legendary

Activity: 1361

Merit: 1003

Don`t panic! Organize!

Just cant wait for 10x 1h blocks that are commin Tongue

Topic: [1500 TH] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool - page 587. (Read 2591920 times)