To quote bassclef from
this recent topic:
Having identified both fears, it's fairly easy to see how they are manipulated for profit. Bad news often accompanies bear markets for the same reason good news accompanies bull markets. They are often timed this way to maximize profits for investors. During bull markets, investors can call their friends at CNBC and unwittingly the anchors and news outlets become stock pumpers. They don't know any better, but the smart money does. Why did good news about the dollar come out recently? Because it's at the top of a bull run and those who accumulated months ago need plenty of buy orders to sell into. Good news almost always accompanies market tops to tempt "the herd" into buying through fear. Now do you understand, on this forum and others, why there are so many negative trolls during bear markets and positive trolls during bull markets? They are not there to be your friend, that's for sure!
To test this theory, look at stocks that are being "pumped" on mainstream news outlets. Note the price and return a few months later--likely it will be lower. A good example is the dollar which has been in a steady uptrend for quite some time. Check out recent news, like this gem: [Suspicious link removed]j.com/articles/dont-buck-the-dollar-trend-heard-on-the-street-1421189831[/url]. There is a chart with the words "Fly Like an Eagle." Are large investors stockpiling dollars at this price? Probably not, but they need someone to sell to, and they know the dumb-dumb public will fall for this. Understanding how this process works, again and again, and how the herd falls for it again and again, is key to understanding how markets operate.
On the 14th of January 2015 this uber bearish article was published:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/14/bitcoin-is-revealed-a-ponzi-scheme-for-redistributing-wealth-from-one-libertarian-to-another/Just right after fall to 152$ to encourage people into selling even more bitcoins. It's been long time since we last saw such volume. Putting it all together, I started to suspect that what we are witnessing is the end of the year long bear market. Last time this happened was in July 2013 when we bottomed at 65$. My question is --- is 152$ the new 65$? If that's so we should slowly but surely return to 450$, consolidate there for a while and then enter into new bubble phase (May 2015).
http://s14.postimg.org/h5c7fo5wx/bottom.pngThe buy/sell walls have changed notably. We can see that the walls are not equal at all these days but I remember that they were rather equally shaped over a long period of time before we fell to 152$. This makes me wonder how the walls looked like on the 13th of July 2013. Can anyone seek out the picture of the buy/sell walls from that time? I searched the wall observer thread but didn't find any good comparison to this:
http://s12.postimg.org/lnnyksksd/walls2015.pngSo what other similarities do we have between 14th of January 2015 and 6th of July 2013? Turns out that during the next 7 days after the violent crash the price recovered by ~40% and in 2013 it never returned back. It is 7 days since we fell to 152$ and we are up ~40% already! Look at the comparison below:
http://s24.postimg.org/3uqi0kfet/chart_july2013.pnghttp://s14.postimg.org/t8ml0cnap/chart_januar2015.pngAlso, do we have any uber bear news from the 7th of July 2013 so that we could compare them with the news from 14th of January 2015? I personally just bought back the bitcoins I sold at 300$, so I'm bullish from now on.
In all honesty, the conditions of the markets is one bitcoin has never seen before, both in scale and extent.
I would not be surprised to see bitcoin sink very very low below 50 USD before there is any semblance of sideways movement before another bull run.
