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Topic: (16 TH/s -> 23 TH/s) + ($15 -> $8) = Coincidence? (Read 2545 times)

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
BFL is not testing any ASICs on EMC.  Our increase appears solely due to OzCoin's fee introduction.

I would be completely open about any ASIC testing happening on a live server, believe me.  It would not  be a stealth issue.  I'd have up a page dedicated to it so people can watch.  Because it would be #%#@$ awesome!

legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1105
WalletScrutiny.com
Maybe the network is getting really, really, really lucky.

How long have we been "lucky"? Depending on how many blocks you look at, you might come to different speeds and different volatility of the speed measured.

http://bitcoincharts.com says 23.762 Thash/s
http://bitcoinwatch.com/ says 16.99 Thash/s
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ says 20 Thash/s
The last retarget sets the difficulty according to about 16Ghash/s.

I can't see anything in the charts that would get me excited (and this thread almost got me to spam my poor Facebook friends about bitcoin again. +10TH in one day after pirate announcing to pay back his dept just sounded too juicy.)
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
Vertrau in Gott
i just received my 200 jalapenos
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
pirate still has his gpumax.com weapon
The stupidity round here

Gpumax would not 'increase' network hashrate at all, it only distributes it
full member
Activity: 144
Merit: 100
The system has actually been running for a few months, a large block of GPUs were released by a user and they were added to the idle cluster.
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1007
The "23 TH" surge is purely luck based, compounded by the fact that the network speed -IS- increasing due to the surge in price from $6.50 last month.  We are not at 23 TH/s right now, simply looking at the chart makes it painfully obvious it's not a natural network growth causing that number to display.

However, always remember that difficulty lags behind price.  The price/difficulty ratio takes a long time to balance because price can fluctuate much faster than new hashing power can be added during a rally, and people are hesitant to turn off the new hardware they've added unless it runs at an absolute loss during a crash.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1009
firstbits:1MinerQ
a) random fluctuation (most probable)
b) someone developed ASICs three months before BFL and mining for themselves
c) someone is attempting 51% attack to destroy bitcoin
Is (a) most probable? Perhaps one our local math whizs can figure the statsitical likelihood of a 50% move in < 24 hours. I don't think it's even remotely likely given a base of this size.

I'm leaning towards some other company with an ASIC design. They likely pushed really hard to get them active as the price was rising. Even still, we ought to see that skew the pool stats unless they intentionally spread them over all pools to remain hidden.
sr. member
Activity: 306
Merit: 257
a) random fluctuation (most probable)
b) someone developed ASICs three months before BFL and mining for themselves
c) someone is attempting 51% attack to destroy bitcoin
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1002
BFL claims they only burn in on the testnetwork, for whatever that's worth.

Regardless, I don't think it has anything to do with the price change.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1009
firstbits:1MinerQ
And it's still rising - now at 25.1 TH/s according to Bitcoincharts.com. And 0.5 in last few minutes.
9.6 blocks in last hour. This is strange or is it just a temporary super luck wave?
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Inactive


FYI, 700 GH added in one day on EMC - confirmed by pool op.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1113700
According to the rest of the thread, it looks like that was just a whole bunch of users switching from OzCoin after the latter introduced a fee. Which means that it doesn't really explain why the total network hashrate would have increased.


Thank you for the clarification.  Now,... where is that 3 TH coming from?
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 564


FYI, 700 GH added in one day on EMC - confirmed by pool op.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1113700
According to the rest of the thread, it looks like that was just a whole bunch of users switching from OzCoin after the latter introduced a fee. Which means that it doesn't really explain why the total network hashrate would have increased.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1003
700GH/s=200 Jalapeños
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Inactive
Haven't BFL used that pool before for burning?

BFL supposedly uses a dedicated account on EMC to perform testing.

Reviewing EMC's miner stats it would appear that multiple accounts are contributing to the 700 GH increase.


Still, this is strange.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1003
Haven't BFL used that pool before for burning?
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
Inactive


FYI, 700 GH added in one day on EMC - confirmed by pool op.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1113700
donator
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
That's a significant portion of mining power a single entity has.
And yet blockchain.info isn't showing a change in distribution. Maybe it takes longer to update? I wouldn't expect all new mining to come online perfectly across all pools. And if only one or two new entities I would expect either a big jump in unknown or just one pool.

Maybe it's the way the different charts calculate the hashrate. Someone fooling around with the timestamps?
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1009
firstbits:1MinerQ
That's a significant portion of mining power a single entity has.
And yet blockchain.info isn't showing a change in distribution. Maybe it takes longer to update? I wouldn't expect all new mining to come online perfectly across all pools. And if only one or two new entities I would expect either a big jump in unknown or just one pool.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
Maybe the network is getting really, really, really lucky.
sr. member
Activity: 372
Merit: 250
That's a significant portion of mining power a single entity has.
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