a reference to my work:
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/2014/02/01/investment-case-bitcoin/
Topic: [ 18 mar data ] A BITCOIN PRICE THEORY - page 10. (Read 60819 times)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 281588 20/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23640410 0.00% 0.00% 90.4448% 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404311 38.39% 8.86% 1.5468% 16.19% 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 888694 82.60% 30.49% 3.4000% 35.58% 178.47579 74.47% 10.88% 0.0015% 0.00000
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 733133 69.94% 9.61% 2.8049% 29.35% 15357.05709 75.19% 14.35% 0.1250% 0.00000
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 246805 71.09% 9.10% 0.9442% 9.88% 114039.92835 76.25% 11.48% 0.9281% 0.00000
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 98291 68.71% 9.43% 0.3760% 3.94% 240798.05631 70.50% 9.90% 1.9598% 0.00000
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31040 72.52% 8.52% 0.1188% 1.24% 242006.83886 74.52% 8.51% 1.9696% 0.00000
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24893 70.02% 8.92% 0.0952% 1.00% 414247.36810 71.49% 9.12% 3.3714% 0.00000
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50053 92.88% 74.45% 0.1915% 2.00% 2324363.85390 94.53% 79.62% 18.9172% 0.00000
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4489 71.78% 16.77% 0.0172% 0.18% 267665.61522 71.30% 15.28% 2.1784% 0.00000
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5562 82.27% 8.20% 0.0213% 0.22% 524703.32228 83.27% 8.28% 4.2704% 0.00000
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7672 70.75% 8.47% 0.0294% 0.31% 1708360.94025 72.18% 9.15% 13.9038% 0.00000
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1467 74.37% 6.82% 0.0056% 0.06% 1132149.10733 76.05% 7.08% 9.2142% 0.00000
> 1000 BTC 1121 66.73% 10.53% 0.0043% 0.04% 5303179.11919 69.45% 6.34% 43.1607% 0.00000
Total Actives 2497531 69.93% 18.14% 9.5552% 100.00% 12287049.68643 76.07% 21.20% 100.0000% 0.00000
Total 26137941 6.68% 1.73% 100.0000% 12287049.68643 76.07% 21.20% 100.0000% 0.00000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 281754 21/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23718956 0.00% 0.00% 90.4525% 78546 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404307 38.39% 8.86% 1.5418% 16.15% -4 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 889457 82.58% 30.46% 3.3920% 35.53% 763 178.83823 74.45% 10.86% 0.0015% 0.36244
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 736700 69.81% 9.56% 2.8094% 29.43% 3567 15434.31496 74.86% 14.28% 0.1256% 77.25786
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 247686 70.87% 9.06% 0.9446% 9.89% 881 114311.43846 76.04% 11.44% 0.9300% 271.51010
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 98975 68.52% 9.36% 0.3774% 3.95% 684 242415.69126 70.30% 9.83% 1.9723% 1617.63495
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31278 72.46% 8.46% 0.1193% 1.25% 238 243925.96439 74.48% 8.44% 1.9846% 1919.12553
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24879 69.84% 8.92% 0.0949% 0.99% -14 414162.34065 71.33% 9.12% 3.3696% -85.02745
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50053 92.91% 74.45% 0.1909% 2.00% 0 2324420.87056 94.54% 79.61% 18.9113% 57.01666
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4512 71.88% 16.67% 0.0172% 0.18% 23 269242.63002 71.40% 15.17% 2.1905% 1577.01479
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5536 82.41% 8.22% 0.0211% 0.22% -26 522588.60633 83.39% 8.30% 4.2517% -2114.71595
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7633 70.65% 8.48% 0.0291% 0.30% -39 1702173.67387 72.18% 9.17% 13.8487% -6187.26638
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1461 74.26% 6.84% 0.0056% 0.06% -6 1127089.70856 75.95% 7.11% 9.1699% -5059.39878
> 1000 BTC 1127 66.90% 10.47% 0.0043% 0.05% 6 5315255.60198 69.46% 6.33% 43.2444% 12076.48279
Total Actives 2503604 69.86% 18.10% 9.5475% 100.00% 6073 12291199.68302 76.06% 21.19% 100.0000% 4149.99658
Total 26222560 6.67% 1.73% 100.0000% 84619 12291199.68302 76.06% 21.19% 100.0000% 4149.99658
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 281946 22/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23788234 0.00% 0.00% 90.4507% 69278 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404307 38.39% 8.86% 1.5373% 16.10% 0 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 889525 82.57% 30.46% 3.3823% 35.42% 68 178.98577 74.45% 10.84% 0.0015% 0.14755
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 741440 69.81% 9.50% 2.8192% 29.52% 4740 15566.17831 74.77% 14.15% 0.1266% 131.86335
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 250027 70.68% 8.97% 0.9507% 9.96% 2341 115022.93534 75.88% 11.37% 0.9355% 711.49688
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 99580 68.44% 9.30% 0.3786% 3.97% 605 243602.58819 70.18% 9.78% 1.9812% 1186.89693
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31236 72.35% 8.47% 0.1188% 1.24% -42 243421.87319 74.34% 8.46% 1.9797% -504.09121
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24963 69.76% 8.88% 0.0949% 0.99% 84 415678.42966 71.27% 9.08% 3.3806% 1516.08901
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50103 92.86% 74.37% 0.1905% 1.99% 50 2326085.97779 94.50% 79.55% 18.9174% 1665.10724
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4501 71.74% 16.69% 0.0171% 0.18% -11 268597.49245 71.24% 15.19% 2.1844% -645.13756
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5524 82.48% 8.20% 0.0210% 0.22% -12 521545.28108 83.46% 8.28% 4.2416% -1043.32526
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7646 70.49% 8.44% 0.0291% 0.30% 13 1705156.04694 72.02% 9.14% 13.8676% 2982.37307
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1466 74.08% 6.82% 0.0056% 0.06% 5 1130403.73945 75.79% 7.09% 9.1933% 3314.03089
> 1000 BTC 1126 66.96% 10.48% 0.0043% 0.04% -1 5310740.25269 69.51% 6.33% 43.1908% -4515.34929
Total Actives 2511444 69.83% 18.04% 9.5493% 100.00% 7840 12295999.78462 76.03% 21.18% 100.0000% 4800.10160
Total 26299678 6.67% 1.72% 100.0000% 77118 12295999.78462 76.03% 21.18% 100.0000% 4800.10160
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282123 23/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23856570 0.00% 0.00% 90.4693% 68336 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404313 38.39% 8.86% 1.5332% 16.09% 6 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 890850 82.53% 30.41% 3.3783% 35.45% 1325 179.45436 74.32% 10.81% 0.0015% 0.46858
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 741894 69.95% 9.49% 2.8134% 29.52% 454 15446.54826 75.26% 14.26% 0.1256% -119.63005
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 249847 70.76% 8.98% 0.9475% 9.94% -180 115223.57715 75.84% 11.34% 0.9367% 200.64181
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 99708 68.43% 9.29% 0.3781% 3.97% 128 244299.08099 70.19% 9.75% 1.9861% 696.49279
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31304 72.47% 8.45% 0.1187% 1.25% 68 244172.92254 74.44% 8.43% 1.9851% 751.04936
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24907 69.77% 8.89% 0.0945% 0.99% -56 414901.93382 71.25% 9.09% 3.3731% -776.49585
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50131 92.83% 74.32% 0.1901% 1.99% 28 2327214.99511 94.47% 79.51% 18.9198% 1129.01731
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4513 71.55% 16.64% 0.0171% 0.18% 12 269370.15891 71.03% 15.15% 2.1899% 772.66646
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5521 82.67% 8.19% 0.0209% 0.22% -3 521273.04545 83.64% 8.27% 4.2378% -272.23563
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7651 70.42% 8.43% 0.0290% 0.30% 5 1707989.62295 71.95% 9.12% 13.8856% 2833.57601
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1460 74.18% 6.85% 0.0055% 0.06% -6 1126799.66153 75.94% 7.11% 9.1607% -3604.07792
> 1000 BTC 1127 66.90% 10.47% 0.0043% 0.04% 1 5313553.77399 69.42% 6.33% 43.1981% 2813.52130
Total Actives 2513226 69.87% 18.03% 9.5307% 100.00% 1782 12300424.77880 75.99% 21.17% 100.0000% 4424.99418
Total 26369796 6.66% 1.72% 100.0000% 70118 12300424.77880 75.99% 21.17% 100.0000% 4424.99418
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282312 24/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23919316 0.00% 0.00% 90.4656% 62746 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404273 38.40% 8.87% 1.5290% 16.04% -40 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 891253 82.53% 30.40% 3.3708% 35.35% 403 179.40679 74.32% 10.81% 0.0015% -0.04756
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 746834 69.81% 9.42% 2.8246% 29.63% 4940 15615.89649 74.81% 14.10% 0.1269% 169.34823
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 251302 70.33% 8.92% 0.9505% 9.97% 1455 115694.54530 75.48% 11.29% 0.9402% 470.96814
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 100313 68.21% 9.23% 0.3794% 3.98% 605 245818.39854 69.95% 9.68% 1.9977% 1519.31755
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31449 72.41% 8.40% 0.1189% 1.25% 145 245251.76897 74.41% 8.39% 1.9931% 1078.84643
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25052 69.63% 8.83% 0.0947% 0.99% 145 417291.10370 71.14% 9.03% 3.3912% 2389.16988
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50190 92.80% 74.23% 0.1898% 1.99% 59 2329109.56899 94.45% 79.44% 18.9279% 1894.57388
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4521 71.47% 16.61% 0.0171% 0.18% 8 269922.53709 70.94% 15.11% 2.1936% 552.37818
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5534 82.40% 8.17% 0.0209% 0.22% 13 522585.15612 83.36% 8.25% 4.2469% 1312.11068
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7630 70.16% 8.44% 0.0289% 0.30% -21 1707099.54467 71.64% 9.11% 13.8730% -890.07829
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1455 74.36% 6.87% 0.0055% 0.06% -5 1122178.52159 76.29% 7.14% 9.1196% -4621.13994
> 1000 BTC 1109 67.54% 10.64% 0.0042% 0.04% -18 5314403.32307 69.95% 6.33% 43.1884% 849.54908
Total Actives 2520915 69.78% 17.97% 9.5344% 100.00% 7689 12305149.77507 76.18% 21.16% 100.0000% 4724.99627
Total 26440231 6.65% 1.71% 100.0000% 70435 12305149.77507 76.18% 21.16% 100.0000% 4724.99627
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282477 25/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23975002 0.00% 0.00% 90.4743% 55686 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404273 38.40% 8.87% 1.5256% 16.02% 0 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 892616 82.51% 30.35% 3.3685% 35.36% 1363 179.90381 74.33% 10.78% 0.0015% 0.49702
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 749650 69.86% 9.39% 2.8289% 29.70% 2816 15693.60393 74.78% 14.03% 0.1275% 77.70744
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 250536 70.57% 8.95% 0.9454% 9.93% -766 115367.64763 75.68% 11.32% 0.9372% -326.89767
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 100245 68.43% 9.23% 0.3783% 3.97% -68 245603.76148 70.18% 9.69% 1.9953% -214.63706
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31446 72.40% 8.39% 0.1187% 1.25% -3 245260.39065 74.37% 8.38% 1.9925% 8.62168
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25000 69.78% 8.85% 0.0943% 0.99% -52 416858.91696 71.24% 9.04% 3.3865% -432.18674
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50214 92.78% 74.18% 0.1895% 1.99% 24 2329831.34184 94.44% 79.40% 18.9274% 721.77285
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4512 71.61% 16.62% 0.0170% 0.18% -9 269414.69710 71.09% 15.12% 2.1887% -507.83999
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5538 82.48% 8.14% 0.0209% 0.22% 4 523010.62348 83.45% 8.22% 4.2489% 425.46736
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7645 70.35% 8.37% 0.0288% 0.30% 15 1710751.93319 71.80% 9.05% 13.8981% 3652.38852
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1454 74.35% 6.88% 0.0055% 0.06% -1 1121013.49627 76.30% 7.15% 9.1071% -1165.02532
> 1000 BTC 1112 67.54% 10.61% 0.0042% 0.04% 3 5316288.45150 69.97% 6.33% 43.1893% 1885.12843
Total Actives 2524241 69.83% 17.94% 9.5257% 100.00% 3326 12309274.77157 76.22% 21.14% 100.0000% 4124.99651
Total 26499243 6.65% 1.71% 100.0000% 59012 12309274.77157 76.22% 21.14% 100.0000% 4124.99651
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282629 26/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24030500 0.00% 0.00% 90.4703% 55498 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404286 38.40% 8.87% 1.5221% 15.97% 13 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 893746 82.50% 30.31% 3.3648% 35.31% 1130 180.29252 74.32% 10.76% 0.0015% 0.38871
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 752928 69.94% 9.34% 2.8346% 29.75% 3278 15784.72847 74.80% 13.95% 0.1282% 91.12454
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 252431 70.47% 8.88% 0.9504% 9.97% 1895 116025.50875 75.62% 11.25% 0.9423% 657.86112
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 100810 68.40% 9.17% 0.3795% 3.98% 565 246851.25998 70.14% 9.63% 2.0048% 1247.49850
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31472 72.46% 8.39% 0.1185% 1.24% 26 245350.79422 74.42% 8.37% 1.9926% 90.40357
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25080 69.80% 8.80% 0.0944% 0.99% 80 417932.72476 71.26% 9.00% 3.3942% 1073.80780
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50236 92.76% 74.14% 0.1891% 1.98% 22 2330363.28476 94.42% 79.37% 18.9259% 531.94292
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4526 71.56% 16.57% 0.0170% 0.18% 14 270141.45914 71.05% 15.07% 2.1939% 726.76204
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5534 82.56% 8.15% 0.0208% 0.22% -4 522497.48356 83.53% 8.23% 4.2434% -513.13992
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7635 70.26% 8.37% 0.0287% 0.30% -10 1708335.56307 71.71% 9.04% 13.8742% -2416.37011
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1453 74.12% 6.88% 0.0055% 0.06% -1 1120226.01262 76.08% 7.16% 9.0979% -787.48365
> 1000 BTC 1112 67.45% 10.61% 0.0042% 0.04% 0 5319385.65315 69.90% 6.32% 43.2011% 3097.20166
Total Actives 2531249 69.84% 17.89% 9.5297% 100.00% 7008 12313074.76874 76.16% 21.13% 100.0000% 3799.99717
Total 26561749 6.66% 1.71% 100.0000% 62506 12313074.76874 76.16% 21.13% 100.0000% 3799.99717
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282803 27/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24095762 0.00% 0.00% 90.4501% 65262 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404284 38.40% 8.87% 1.5176% 15.89% -2 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 898563 82.51% 30.15% 3.3730% 35.32% 4817 181.71100 74.42% 10.67% 0.0015% 1.41848
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 757644 69.92% 9.28% 2.8440% 29.78% 4716 15907.75197 74.64% 13.83% 0.1291% 123.02350
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 254626 70.21% 8.79% 0.9558% 10.01% 2195 116763.52952 75.40% 11.18% 0.9480% 738.02077
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 101515 68.19% 9.11% 0.3811% 3.99% 705 248671.06574 69.95% 9.56% 2.0189% 1819.80576
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31723 72.34% 8.31% 0.1191% 1.25% 251 247586.52388 74.34% 8.29% 2.0101% 2235.72966
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25182 69.80% 8.76% 0.0945% 0.99% 102 419041.22561 71.29% 8.97% 3.4020% 1108.50085
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50260 92.72% 74.09% 0.1887% 1.98% 24 2331124.45672 94.39% 79.33% 18.9254% 761.17196
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4531 71.44% 16.55% 0.0170% 0.18% 5 270551.45609 70.89% 15.05% 2.1965% 409.99695
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5548 82.46% 8.13% 0.0208% 0.22% 14 523735.81691 83.43% 8.21% 4.2520% 1238.33335
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7618 70.11% 8.36% 0.0286% 0.30% -17 1705005.19699 71.62% 9.04% 13.8422% -3330.36609
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1469 73.72% 6.81% 0.0055% 0.06% 16 1133531.78506 75.54% 7.07% 9.2027% 13305.77244
> 1000 BTC 1106 67.36% 10.67% 0.0042% 0.04% -6 5305324.24410 69.90% 6.34% 43.0717% -14061.40905
Total Actives 2544069 69.83% 17.80% 9.5499% 100.00% 12820 12317424.76733 76.09% 21.12% 100.0000% 4349.99858
Total 26639831 6.67% 1.70% 100.0000% 78082 12317424.76733 76.09% 21.12% 100.0000% 4349.99858
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282957 28/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24171974 0.00% 0.00% 90.4597% 76212 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404235 38.40% 8.87% 1.5128% 15.86% -49 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 899061 82.50% 30.13% 3.3646% 35.27% 498 181.89135 74.41% 10.66% 0.0015% 0.18035
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 761638 69.89% 9.23% 2.8503% 29.88% 3994 15990.74809 74.51% 13.76% 0.1298% 82.99612
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 255758 70.29% 8.75% 0.9571% 10.03% 1132 117120.68258 75.41% 11.14% 0.9506% 357.15306
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 101262 68.17% 9.12% 0.3790% 3.97% -253 248323.48642 69.95% 9.57% 2.0154% -347.57932
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31638 72.33% 8.33% 0.1184% 1.24% -85 246703.95578 74.33% 8.32% 2.0023% -882.56810
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25138 69.88% 8.77% 0.0941% 0.99% -44 417972.10142 71.37% 8.99% 3.3923% -1069.12419
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50260 92.76% 74.09% 0.1881% 1.97% 0 2331278.68717 94.42% 79.33% 18.9208% 154.23045
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4543 71.52% 16.51% 0.0170% 0.18% 12 271159.20510 70.95% 15.02% 2.2007% 607.74901
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5542 82.66% 8.14% 0.0207% 0.22% -6 523510.42953 83.59% 8.21% 4.2488% -225.38738
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7640 70.37% 8.29% 0.0286% 0.30% 22 1711087.35302 71.81% 8.98% 13.8873% 6082.15603
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1470 73.74% 6.80% 0.0055% 0.06% 1 1133771.97994 75.56% 7.07% 9.2017% 240.19488
> 1000 BTC 1104 67.39% 10.69% 0.0041% 0.04% -2 5304174.24087 69.89% 6.34% 43.0489% -1150.00323
Total Actives 2549289 69.83% 17.76% 9.5403% 100.00% 5220 12321274.76502 76.12% 21.10% 100.0000% 3849.99769
Total 26721263 6.66% 1.69% 100.0000% 81432 12321274.76502 76.12% 21.10% 100.0000% 3849.99769
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 283109 29/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24234079 0.00% 0.00% 90.4533% 62105 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404237 38.41% 8.87% 1.5088% 15.80% 2 0.00404 38.41% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 899892 82.47% 30.10% 3.3588% 35.18% 831 182.30419 74.35% 10.64% 0.0015% 0.41283
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 767023 69.81% 9.17% 2.8629% 29.99% 5385 16150.22650 74.29% 13.62% 0.1310% 159.47841
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 257866 70.10% 8.68% 0.9625% 10.08% 2108 117705.99111 75.29% 11.08% 0.9550% 585.30853
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 101407 68.09% 9.10% 0.3785% 3.96% 145 248677.62562 69.87% 9.55% 2.0177% 354.13919
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31616 72.31% 8.33% 0.1180% 1.24% -22 246483.77013 74.31% 8.31% 1.9999% -220.18565
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25148 69.71% 8.77% 0.0939% 0.98% 10 418519.34681 71.22% 8.98% 3.3957% 547.24539
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50240 92.76% 74.12% 0.1875% 1.96% -20 2330537.56489 94.42% 79.35% 18.9089% -741.12228
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4545 71.60% 16.48% 0.0170% 0.18% 2 271334.28814 71.06% 14.99% 2.2015% 175.08303
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5537 82.59% 8.15% 0.0207% 0.22% -5 522813.70230 83.54% 8.22% 4.2419% -696.72724
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7631 70.20% 8.26% 0.0285% 0.30% -9 1709337.61264 71.65% 8.95% 13.8688% -1749.74038
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1476 73.51% 6.78% 0.0055% 0.06% 6 1136998.48978 75.39% 7.05% 9.2251% 3226.50984
> 1000 BTC 1111 67.06% 10.62% 0.0041% 0.04% 7 5306333.83773 69.80% 6.34% 43.0532% 2159.59686
Total Actives 2557729 69.77% 17.70% 9.5467% 100.00% 8440 12325074.76358 76.03% 21.09% 100.0000% 3799.99856
Total 26791808 6.66% 1.69% 100.0000% 70545 12325074.76358 76.03% 21.09% 100.0000% 3799.99856
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 283285 30/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24304459 0.00% 0.00% 90.4570% 70380 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404231 38.41% 8.87% 1.5045% 15.77% -6 0.00404 38.41% 8.87% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 900853 82.47% 30.07% 3.3528% 35.13% 961 182.65997 74.38% 10.62% 0.0015% 0.35578
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 771830 69.82% 9.11% 2.8726% 30.10% 4807 16234.41090 74.29% 13.55% 0.1317% 84.18440
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 258194 70.25% 8.67% 0.9610% 10.07% 328 117811.98469 75.42% 11.07% 0.9555% 105.99358
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 101420 68.23% 9.10% 0.3775% 3.96% 13 248665.48738 70.03% 9.55% 2.0168% -12.13824
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31678 72.46% 8.31% 0.1179% 1.24% 62 246937.81650 74.45% 8.30% 2.0028% 454.04637
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25297 70.00% 8.72% 0.0942% 0.99% 149 420438.61890 71.48% 8.93% 3.4100% 1919.27209
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50260 92.77% 74.09% 0.1871% 1.96% 20 2331321.29886 94.43% 79.32% 18.9085% 783.73398
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4541 71.68% 16.49% 0.0169% 0.18% -4 271059.01841 71.14% 15.00% 2.1985% -275.26973
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5537 82.46% 8.15% 0.0206% 0.22% 0 522888.82244 83.43% 8.22% 4.2410% 75.12014
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7642 70.18% 8.23% 0.0284% 0.30% 11 1710273.99688 71.63% 8.93% 13.8714% 936.38423
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1481 73.53% 6.75% 0.0055% 0.06% 5 1140497.64000 75.41% 7.03% 9.2502% 3499.15022
> 1000 BTC 1111 67.06% 10.62% 0.0041% 0.04% 0 5303163.00306 69.80% 6.34% 43.0121% -3170.83467
Total Actives 2564075 69.81% 17.66% 9.5430% 100.00% 6346 12329474.76173 76.05% 21.08% 100.0000% 4399.99815
Total 26868534 6.66% 1.69% 100.0000% 76726 12329474.76173 76.05% 21.08% 100.0000% 4399.99815
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 283469 31/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24375186 0.00% 0.00% 90.4565% 70727 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404247 38.41% 8.87% 1.5002% 15.72% 16 0.00404 38.41% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 901871 82.45% 30.04% 3.3468% 35.07% 1018 182.97061 74.38% 10.60% 0.0015% 0.31064
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 776007 69.80% 9.06% 2.8798% 30.18% 4177 16364.05592 74.08% 13.44% 0.1327% 129.64502
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 259888 70.03% 8.61% 0.9644% 10.11% 1694 118407.39113 75.21% 11.01% 0.9600% 595.40644
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 101982 68.11% 9.05% 0.3785% 3.97% 562 249948.07298 69.92% 9.50% 2.0265% 1282.58561
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31776 72.19% 8.28% 0.1179% 1.24% 98 247447.64311 74.21% 8.28% 2.0062% 509.82661
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25313 69.76% 8.71% 0.0939% 0.98% 16 420626.98969 71.31% 8.93% 3.4103% 188.37078
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50299 92.74% 74.03% 0.1867% 1.96% 39 2332760.26293 94.39% 79.27% 18.9131% 1438.96407
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4546 71.47% 16.48% 0.0169% 0.18% 5 271388.36323 70.89% 14.98% 2.2003% 329.34482
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5526 82.59% 8.16% 0.0205% 0.21% -11 522096.56931 83.53% 8.24% 4.2330% -792.25313
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7639 70.10% 8.21% 0.0283% 0.30% -3 1708858.92526 71.56% 8.92% 13.8548% -1415.07162
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1478 73.14% 6.77% 0.0055% 0.06% -3 1138682.69721 75.06% 7.04% 9.2320% -1814.94279
> 1000 BTC 1114 66.97% 10.59% 0.0041% 0.04% 3 5307310.81487 69.76% 6.34% 43.0297% 4147.81181
Total Actives 2571686 69.77% 17.60% 9.5435% 100.00% 7611 12334074.75999 75.97% 21.07% 100.0000% 4599.99826
Total 26946872 6.66% 1.68% 100.0000% 78338 12334074.75999 75.97% 21.07% 100.0000% 4599.99826
num : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table
donations : 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN
gbianchi bitcointalk.org bitcoin-italia.org
I believe that the growth of the guiding coefficient of the regression with time (meaning the purple curve predicts a higher price in late 2014 than the blue one, which itself predicts a higher price than the green one) is expected. Indeed, the easier buying and holding bitcoins is, the faster the network expands.
I mean that typically if the guiding coefficient is constant that means every new user brings k new users to the network in a given time T.
But with bitcoin, at the very beginning people had to be very tech savvy so a new user was bringing let's say 3 new users in a month back in mid 2010. But now it is so much easier to buy bitcoin and there is still so many people out of the network that the same guy can bring 10 new users in a month instead of 3. And this rate will grow tremendously with the apparition of an ETF or the possibility to buy some to a bank like Lloyd's or Well's Fargo.
This assumption should not be made to modelize the growth of Facebook or Twitter because these networks have been easy to enter in since the beginning.
So that is why i think you should modelize the growth of the guiding coefficient over time, and interpolate with a constant coefficient gives an underpriced estimation in my opinion.
TLDR The prediction of 8000$ with this model is too low.
I mean that typically if the guiding coefficient is constant that means every new user brings k new users to the network in a given time T.
But with bitcoin, at the very beginning people had to be very tech savvy so a new user was bringing let's say 3 new users in a month back in mid 2010. But now it is so much easier to buy bitcoin and there is still so many people out of the network that the same guy can bring 10 new users in a month instead of 3. And this rate will grow tremendously with the apparition of an ETF or the possibility to buy some to a bank like Lloyd's or Well's Fargo.
This assumption should not be made to modelize the growth of Facebook or Twitter because these networks have been easy to enter in since the beginning.
So that is why i think you should modelize the growth of the guiding coefficient over time, and interpolate with a constant coefficient gives an underpriced estimation in my opinion.
TLDR The prediction of 8000$ with this model is too low.
gbianchi, great work on your model, it is not very often we see such detailed numeric analysis on this forum.
However, I have some comments I have to make on this model.
The number of addresses will always increase with time. It is not possible for this number to decrease. However, this model assumes that the price is proportional in some form to the number of addresses. So, that means the price can never decrease.
While the general trend has been up. At some point in the future Bitcoin will reach its ultimate or peak price (the final bubble).
If a trader or a long time investor where to follow this model, they will not know when to divest or get out, as the model will predict a price increase towards infinity.
However, I have some comments I have to make on this model.
The number of addresses will always increase with time. It is not possible for this number to decrease. However, this model assumes that the price is proportional in some form to the number of addresses. So, that means the price can never decrease.
While the general trend has been up. At some point in the future Bitcoin will reach its ultimate or peak price (the final bubble).
If a trader or a long time investor where to follow this model, they will not know when to divest or get out, as the model will predict a price increase towards infinity.
Yes I know.... it 's true.
I think that over time the theory will go adjusted taking into account addresses
that have dateIn or dateOut more Recent that X number of years,
Considering the other addresses dead.
In the table at 2 post I give some statistics for addresses not used from
01/01/2012.
But for now bitcoin is so young that I think this does not matter.
I think we should find a way to make gnuplot charts readable when there are 10 lines on it. I have the same issue.
Might have to adjust it to "active addresses" at some point in the future. Still might give decent data but only time will tell.
fit to the first difference.
gbianchi, great work on your model, it is not very often we see such detailed numeric analysis on this forum.
However, I have some comments I have to make on this model.
The number of addresses will always increase with time. It is not possible for this number to decrease. However, this model assumes that the price is proportional in some form to the number of addresses. So, that means the price can never decrease.
While the general trend has been up. At some point in the future Bitcoin will reach its ultimate or peak price (the final bubble).
If a trader or a long time investor where to follow this model, they will not know when to divest or get out, as the model will predict a price increase towards infinity.
However, I have some comments I have to make on this model.
The number of addresses will always increase with time. It is not possible for this number to decrease. However, this model assumes that the price is proportional in some form to the number of addresses. So, that means the price can never decrease.
While the general trend has been up. At some point in the future Bitcoin will reach its ultimate or peak price (the final bubble).
If a trader or a long time investor where to follow this model, they will not know when to divest or get out, as the model will predict a price increase towards infinity.
great work !!!!
7900 will be fine ...
7900 will be fine ...
People that have multiple wallets have multiple addresses. That's the only reason I mentioned wallets.
What I mean by a "hosted" wallet" is a wallet owned by a 3rd party that many people can use. Some of the addresses with the highest values are owned by Mt. Gox (and other exchanges) and hold bitcoins for thousands of people. People with hosted wallets do not hold the private keys.
Ah ok, I understand....
but if you take a look at the table in the second post, I am monitoring
the daily growth of the addresses, so we can see if network growth how I think.
My extrapolation of total addresses for end 2014 is:
TA = 2764582*exp((days from 01/01/2012)*0.00297)
or about 71 million of addresses. (now the are 26791808 )
My understanding is that your assumption is that price depends on adoption, and adoption can be represented by the number or addresses (perhaps even better by the number of "active" addresses).
I'm sure there is a loose correlation between adoption, addresses, and price, but there are many factors that can reduce the correlation, such as the use of hosted wallets (thousands of users, but only a few wallets), the use of multiple wallets and addresses by a single person, and the use of one-time addresses. How would you account for those in your model?
I'm sure there is a loose correlation between adoption, addresses, and price, but there are many factors that can reduce the correlation, such as the use of hosted wallets (thousands of users, but only a few wallets), the use of multiple wallets and addresses by a single person, and the use of one-time addresses. How would you account for those in your model?
I do not use "wallets", I extract "addresses" from blockchain... even if you use an hosted web wallet, you have YOUR private address (or addresses)...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 281224 18/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23514852 0.00% 0.00% 90.4307% 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404312 38.39% 8.86% 1.5549% 16.25% 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 886869 82.60% 30.55% 3.4106% 35.64% 176.95828 74.42% 10.98% 0.0014% 0.00000
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 727172 69.70% 9.69% 2.7965% 29.22% 15250.72224 74.92% 14.46% 0.1242% 0.00000
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 245947 70.84% 9.14% 0.9458% 9.88% 113788.15782 76.08% 11.52% 0.9268% 0.00000
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 98078 68.58% 9.46% 0.3772% 3.94% 240217.18620 70.37% 9.93% 1.9565% 0.00000
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30908 72.21% 8.58% 0.1189% 1.24% 240951.40354 74.20% 8.57% 1.9625% 0.00000
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24705 69.96% 8.99% 0.0950% 0.99% 411468.88705 71.48% 9.18% 3.3513% 0.00000
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50080 92.92% 74.48% 0.1926% 2.01% 2325632.07964 94.55% 79.65% 18.9415% 0.00000
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4493 71.56% 16.76% 0.0173% 0.18% 267891.63258 71.06% 15.27% 2.1819% 0.00000
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5528 82.31% 8.27% 0.0213% 0.22% 521398.01969 83.32% 8.35% 4.2466% 0.00000
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7622 70.62% 8.57% 0.0293% 0.31% 1700607.80414 72.06% 9.23% 13.8509% 0.00000
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1482 74.22% 6.75% 0.0057% 0.06% 1142898.58759 76.01% 7.01% 9.3085% 0.00000
> 1000 BTC 1120 66.79% 10.62% 0.0043% 0.05% 5297668.25895 69.43% 6.39% 43.1478% 0.00000
Total Actives 2488316 69.82% 18.22% 9.5693% 100.00% 12277949.70148 76.04% 21.26% 100.0000% 0.00000
Total 26003168 6.68% 1.74% 100.0000% 12277949.70148 76.04% 21.26% 100.0000% 0.00000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 281393 19/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23563605 0.00% 0.00% 90.4298% 48753 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404308 38.39% 8.86% 1.5516% 16.21% -4 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 887870 82.58% 30.52% 3.4074% 35.60% 1001 177.24597 74.38% 10.96% 0.0014% 0.28769
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 730184 69.74% 9.65% 2.8022% 29.28% 3012 15334.86864 74.90% 14.37% 0.1249% 84.14640
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 246794 70.83% 9.11% 0.9471% 9.90% 847 114041.18527 76.09% 11.49% 0.9285% 253.02745
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 98357 68.54% 9.43% 0.3775% 3.94% 279 240944.08803 70.32% 9.90% 1.9617% 726.90183
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30901 72.22% 8.57% 0.1186% 1.24% -7 240761.29783 74.21% 8.56% 1.9602% -190.10571
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25024 70.26% 8.87% 0.0960% 1.00% 319 416615.27358 71.74% 9.07% 3.3920% 5146.38653
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50038 92.88% 74.48% 0.1920% 2.01% -42 2323940.18831 94.52% 79.64% 18.9212% -1691.89133
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4501 71.43% 16.73% 0.0173% 0.18% 8 268380.16104 70.96% 15.24% 2.1851% 488.52845
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5533 82.34% 8.24% 0.0212% 0.22% 5 522083.09658 83.35% 8.33% 4.2507% 685.07689
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7631 70.54% 8.53% 0.0293% 0.31% 9 1701066.32872 71.99% 9.20% 13.8499% 458.52458
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1476 74.32% 6.78% 0.0057% 0.06% -6 1139166.21847 76.10% 7.04% 9.2750% -3732.36912
> 1000 BTC 1121 66.64% 10.53% 0.0043% 0.04% 1 5299664.73280 69.41% 6.35% 43.1492% 1996.47385
Total Actives 2493738 69.82% 18.17% 9.5702% 100.00% 5422 12282174.68899 76.02% 21.21% 100.0000% 4224.98751
Total 26057343 6.68% 1.74% 100.0000% 54175 12282174.68899 76.02% 21.21% 100.0000% 4224.98751
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 281588 20/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23640410 0.00% 0.00% 90.4448% 76805 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404311 38.39% 8.86% 1.5468% 16.19% 3 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 888694 82.60% 30.49% 3.4000% 35.58% 824 178.47579 74.47% 10.88% 0.0015% 1.22981
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 733133 69.94% 9.61% 2.8049% 29.35% 2949 15357.05709 75.19% 14.35% 0.1250% 22.18846
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 246805 71.09% 9.10% 0.9442% 9.88% 11 114039.92835 76.25% 11.48% 0.9281% -1.25692
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 98291 68.71% 9.43% 0.3760% 3.94% -66 240798.05631 70.50% 9.90% 1.9598% -146.03172
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31040 72.52% 8.52% 0.1188% 1.24% 139 242006.83886 74.52% 8.51% 1.9696% 1245.54103
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24893 70.02% 8.92% 0.0952% 1.00% -131 414247.36810 71.49% 9.12% 3.3714% -2367.90548
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50053 92.88% 74.45% 0.1915% 2.00% 15 2324363.85390 94.53% 79.62% 18.9172% 423.66559
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4489 71.78% 16.77% 0.0172% 0.18% -12 267665.61522 71.30% 15.28% 2.1784% -714.54581
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5562 82.27% 8.20% 0.0213% 0.22% 29 524703.32228 83.27% 8.28% 4.2704% 2620.22570
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7672 70.75% 8.47% 0.0294% 0.31% 41 1708360.94025 72.18% 9.15% 13.9038% 7294.61154
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1467 74.37% 6.82% 0.0056% 0.06% -9 1132149.10733 76.05% 7.08% 9.2142% -7017.11114
> 1000 BTC 1121 66.73% 10.53% 0.0043% 0.04% 0 5303179.11919 69.45% 6.34% 43.1607% 3514.38639
Total Actives 2497531 69.93% 18.14% 9.5552% 100.00% 3793 12287049.68643 76.07% 21.20% 100.0000% 4874.99745
Total 26137941 6.68% 1.73% 100.0000% 80598 12287049.68643 76.07% 21.20% 100.0000% 4874.99745
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 281754 21/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23718956 0.00% 0.00% 90.4525% 78546 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404307 38.39% 8.86% 1.5418% 16.15% -4 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 889457 82.58% 30.46% 3.3920% 35.53% 763 178.83823 74.45% 10.86% 0.0015% 0.36244
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 736700 69.81% 9.56% 2.8094% 29.43% 3567 15434.31496 74.86% 14.28% 0.1256% 77.25786
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 247686 70.87% 9.06% 0.9446% 9.89% 881 114311.43846 76.04% 11.44% 0.9300% 271.51010
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 98975 68.52% 9.36% 0.3774% 3.95% 684 242415.69126 70.30% 9.83% 1.9723% 1617.63495
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31278 72.46% 8.46% 0.1193% 1.25% 238 243925.96439 74.48% 8.44% 1.9846% 1919.12553
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24879 69.84% 8.92% 0.0949% 0.99% -14 414162.34065 71.33% 9.12% 3.3696% -85.02745
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50053 92.91% 74.45% 0.1909% 2.00% 0 2324420.87056 94.54% 79.61% 18.9113% 57.01666
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4512 71.88% 16.67% 0.0172% 0.18% 23 269242.63002 71.40% 15.17% 2.1905% 1577.01479
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5536 82.41% 8.22% 0.0211% 0.22% -26 522588.60633 83.39% 8.30% 4.2517% -2114.71595
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7633 70.65% 8.48% 0.0291% 0.30% -39 1702173.67387 72.18% 9.17% 13.8487% -6187.26638
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1461 74.26% 6.84% 0.0056% 0.06% -6 1127089.70856 75.95% 7.11% 9.1699% -5059.39878
> 1000 BTC 1127 66.90% 10.47% 0.0043% 0.05% 6 5315255.60198 69.46% 6.33% 43.2444% 12076.48279
Total Actives 2503604 69.86% 18.10% 9.5475% 100.00% 6073 12291199.68302 76.06% 21.19% 100.0000% 4149.99658
Total 26222560 6.67% 1.73% 100.0000% 84619 12291199.68302 76.06% 21.19% 100.0000% 4149.99658
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 281946 22/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23788234 0.00% 0.00% 90.4507% 69278 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404307 38.39% 8.86% 1.5373% 16.10% 0 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 889525 82.57% 30.46% 3.3823% 35.42% 68 178.98577 74.45% 10.84% 0.0015% 0.14755
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 741440 69.81% 9.50% 2.8192% 29.52% 4740 15566.17831 74.77% 14.15% 0.1266% 131.86335
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 250027 70.68% 8.97% 0.9507% 9.96% 2341 115022.93534 75.88% 11.37% 0.9355% 711.49688
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 99580 68.44% 9.30% 0.3786% 3.97% 605 243602.58819 70.18% 9.78% 1.9812% 1186.89693
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31236 72.35% 8.47% 0.1188% 1.24% -42 243421.87319 74.34% 8.46% 1.9797% -504.09121
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24963 69.76% 8.88% 0.0949% 0.99% 84 415678.42966 71.27% 9.08% 3.3806% 1516.08901
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50103 92.86% 74.37% 0.1905% 1.99% 50 2326085.97779 94.50% 79.55% 18.9174% 1665.10724
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4501 71.74% 16.69% 0.0171% 0.18% -11 268597.49245 71.24% 15.19% 2.1844% -645.13756
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5524 82.48% 8.20% 0.0210% 0.22% -12 521545.28108 83.46% 8.28% 4.2416% -1043.32526
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7646 70.49% 8.44% 0.0291% 0.30% 13 1705156.04694 72.02% 9.14% 13.8676% 2982.37307
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1466 74.08% 6.82% 0.0056% 0.06% 5 1130403.73945 75.79% 7.09% 9.1933% 3314.03089
> 1000 BTC 1126 66.96% 10.48% 0.0043% 0.04% -1 5310740.25269 69.51% 6.33% 43.1908% -4515.34929
Total Actives 2511444 69.83% 18.04% 9.5493% 100.00% 7840 12295999.78462 76.03% 21.18% 100.0000% 4800.10160
Total 26299678 6.67% 1.72% 100.0000% 77118 12295999.78462 76.03% 21.18% 100.0000% 4800.10160
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282123 23/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23856570 0.00% 0.00% 90.4693% 68336 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404313 38.39% 8.86% 1.5332% 16.09% 6 0.00404 38.39% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 890850 82.53% 30.41% 3.3783% 35.45% 1325 179.45436 74.32% 10.81% 0.0015% 0.46858
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 741894 69.95% 9.49% 2.8134% 29.52% 454 15446.54826 75.26% 14.26% 0.1256% -119.63005
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 249847 70.76% 8.98% 0.9475% 9.94% -180 115223.57715 75.84% 11.34% 0.9367% 200.64181
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 99708 68.43% 9.29% 0.3781% 3.97% 128 244299.08099 70.19% 9.75% 1.9861% 696.49279
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31304 72.47% 8.45% 0.1187% 1.25% 68 244172.92254 74.44% 8.43% 1.9851% 751.04936
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24907 69.77% 8.89% 0.0945% 0.99% -56 414901.93382 71.25% 9.09% 3.3731% -776.49585
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50131 92.83% 74.32% 0.1901% 1.99% 28 2327214.99511 94.47% 79.51% 18.9198% 1129.01731
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4513 71.55% 16.64% 0.0171% 0.18% 12 269370.15891 71.03% 15.15% 2.1899% 772.66646
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5521 82.67% 8.19% 0.0209% 0.22% -3 521273.04545 83.64% 8.27% 4.2378% -272.23563
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7651 70.42% 8.43% 0.0290% 0.30% 5 1707989.62295 71.95% 9.12% 13.8856% 2833.57601
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1460 74.18% 6.85% 0.0055% 0.06% -6 1126799.66153 75.94% 7.11% 9.1607% -3604.07792
> 1000 BTC 1127 66.90% 10.47% 0.0043% 0.04% 1 5313553.77399 69.42% 6.33% 43.1981% 2813.52130
Total Actives 2513226 69.87% 18.03% 9.5307% 100.00% 1782 12300424.77880 75.99% 21.17% 100.0000% 4424.99418
Total 26369796 6.66% 1.72% 100.0000% 70118 12300424.77880 75.99% 21.17% 100.0000% 4424.99418
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282312 24/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23919316 0.00% 0.00% 90.4656% 62746 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404273 38.40% 8.87% 1.5290% 16.04% -40 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 891253 82.53% 30.40% 3.3708% 35.35% 403 179.40679 74.32% 10.81% 0.0015% -0.04756
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 746834 69.81% 9.42% 2.8246% 29.63% 4940 15615.89649 74.81% 14.10% 0.1269% 169.34823
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 251302 70.33% 8.92% 0.9505% 9.97% 1455 115694.54530 75.48% 11.29% 0.9402% 470.96814
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 100313 68.21% 9.23% 0.3794% 3.98% 605 245818.39854 69.95% 9.68% 1.9977% 1519.31755
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31449 72.41% 8.40% 0.1189% 1.25% 145 245251.76897 74.41% 8.39% 1.9931% 1078.84643
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25052 69.63% 8.83% 0.0947% 0.99% 145 417291.10370 71.14% 9.03% 3.3912% 2389.16988
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50190 92.80% 74.23% 0.1898% 1.99% 59 2329109.56899 94.45% 79.44% 18.9279% 1894.57388
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4521 71.47% 16.61% 0.0171% 0.18% 8 269922.53709 70.94% 15.11% 2.1936% 552.37818
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5534 82.40% 8.17% 0.0209% 0.22% 13 522585.15612 83.36% 8.25% 4.2469% 1312.11068
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7630 70.16% 8.44% 0.0289% 0.30% -21 1707099.54467 71.64% 9.11% 13.8730% -890.07829
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1455 74.36% 6.87% 0.0055% 0.06% -5 1122178.52159 76.29% 7.14% 9.1196% -4621.13994
> 1000 BTC 1109 67.54% 10.64% 0.0042% 0.04% -18 5314403.32307 69.95% 6.33% 43.1884% 849.54908
Total Actives 2520915 69.78% 17.97% 9.5344% 100.00% 7689 12305149.77507 76.18% 21.16% 100.0000% 4724.99627
Total 26440231 6.65% 1.71% 100.0000% 70435 12305149.77507 76.18% 21.16% 100.0000% 4724.99627
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282477 25/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 23975002 0.00% 0.00% 90.4743% 55686 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404273 38.40% 8.87% 1.5256% 16.02% 0 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 892616 82.51% 30.35% 3.3685% 35.36% 1363 179.90381 74.33% 10.78% 0.0015% 0.49702
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 749650 69.86% 9.39% 2.8289% 29.70% 2816 15693.60393 74.78% 14.03% 0.1275% 77.70744
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 250536 70.57% 8.95% 0.9454% 9.93% -766 115367.64763 75.68% 11.32% 0.9372% -326.89767
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 100245 68.43% 9.23% 0.3783% 3.97% -68 245603.76148 70.18% 9.69% 1.9953% -214.63706
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31446 72.40% 8.39% 0.1187% 1.25% -3 245260.39065 74.37% 8.38% 1.9925% 8.62168
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25000 69.78% 8.85% 0.0943% 0.99% -52 416858.91696 71.24% 9.04% 3.3865% -432.18674
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50214 92.78% 74.18% 0.1895% 1.99% 24 2329831.34184 94.44% 79.40% 18.9274% 721.77285
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4512 71.61% 16.62% 0.0170% 0.18% -9 269414.69710 71.09% 15.12% 2.1887% -507.83999
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5538 82.48% 8.14% 0.0209% 0.22% 4 523010.62348 83.45% 8.22% 4.2489% 425.46736
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7645 70.35% 8.37% 0.0288% 0.30% 15 1710751.93319 71.80% 9.05% 13.8981% 3652.38852
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1454 74.35% 6.88% 0.0055% 0.06% -1 1121013.49627 76.30% 7.15% 9.1071% -1165.02532
> 1000 BTC 1112 67.54% 10.61% 0.0042% 0.04% 3 5316288.45150 69.97% 6.33% 43.1893% 1885.12843
Total Actives 2524241 69.83% 17.94% 9.5257% 100.00% 3326 12309274.77157 76.22% 21.14% 100.0000% 4124.99651
Total 26499243 6.65% 1.71% 100.0000% 59012 12309274.77157 76.22% 21.14% 100.0000% 4124.99651
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282629 26/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24030500 0.00% 0.00% 90.4703% 55498 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404286 38.40% 8.87% 1.5221% 15.97% 13 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 893746 82.50% 30.31% 3.3648% 35.31% 1130 180.29252 74.32% 10.76% 0.0015% 0.38871
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 752928 69.94% 9.34% 2.8346% 29.75% 3278 15784.72847 74.80% 13.95% 0.1282% 91.12454
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 252431 70.47% 8.88% 0.9504% 9.97% 1895 116025.50875 75.62% 11.25% 0.9423% 657.86112
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 100810 68.40% 9.17% 0.3795% 3.98% 565 246851.25998 70.14% 9.63% 2.0048% 1247.49850
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31472 72.46% 8.39% 0.1185% 1.24% 26 245350.79422 74.42% 8.37% 1.9926% 90.40357
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25080 69.80% 8.80% 0.0944% 0.99% 80 417932.72476 71.26% 9.00% 3.3942% 1073.80780
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50236 92.76% 74.14% 0.1891% 1.98% 22 2330363.28476 94.42% 79.37% 18.9259% 531.94292
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4526 71.56% 16.57% 0.0170% 0.18% 14 270141.45914 71.05% 15.07% 2.1939% 726.76204
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5534 82.56% 8.15% 0.0208% 0.22% -4 522497.48356 83.53% 8.23% 4.2434% -513.13992
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7635 70.26% 8.37% 0.0287% 0.30% -10 1708335.56307 71.71% 9.04% 13.8742% -2416.37011
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1453 74.12% 6.88% 0.0055% 0.06% -1 1120226.01262 76.08% 7.16% 9.0979% -787.48365
> 1000 BTC 1112 67.45% 10.61% 0.0042% 0.04% 0 5319385.65315 69.90% 6.32% 43.2011% 3097.20166
Total Actives 2531249 69.84% 17.89% 9.5297% 100.00% 7008 12313074.76874 76.16% 21.13% 100.0000% 3799.99717
Total 26561749 6.66% 1.71% 100.0000% 62506 12313074.76874 76.16% 21.13% 100.0000% 3799.99717
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282803 27/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24095762 0.00% 0.00% 90.4501% 65262 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404284 38.40% 8.87% 1.5176% 15.89% -2 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 898563 82.51% 30.15% 3.3730% 35.32% 4817 181.71100 74.42% 10.67% 0.0015% 1.41848
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 757644 69.92% 9.28% 2.8440% 29.78% 4716 15907.75197 74.64% 13.83% 0.1291% 123.02350
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 254626 70.21% 8.79% 0.9558% 10.01% 2195 116763.52952 75.40% 11.18% 0.9480% 738.02077
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 101515 68.19% 9.11% 0.3811% 3.99% 705 248671.06574 69.95% 9.56% 2.0189% 1819.80576
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31723 72.34% 8.31% 0.1191% 1.25% 251 247586.52388 74.34% 8.29% 2.0101% 2235.72966
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25182 69.80% 8.76% 0.0945% 0.99% 102 419041.22561 71.29% 8.97% 3.4020% 1108.50085
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50260 92.72% 74.09% 0.1887% 1.98% 24 2331124.45672 94.39% 79.33% 18.9254% 761.17196
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4531 71.44% 16.55% 0.0170% 0.18% 5 270551.45609 70.89% 15.05% 2.1965% 409.99695
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5548 82.46% 8.13% 0.0208% 0.22% 14 523735.81691 83.43% 8.21% 4.2520% 1238.33335
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7618 70.11% 8.36% 0.0286% 0.30% -17 1705005.19699 71.62% 9.04% 13.8422% -3330.36609
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1469 73.72% 6.81% 0.0055% 0.06% 16 1133531.78506 75.54% 7.07% 9.2027% 13305.77244
> 1000 BTC 1106 67.36% 10.67% 0.0042% 0.04% -6 5305324.24410 69.90% 6.34% 43.0717% -14061.40905
Total Actives 2544069 69.83% 17.80% 9.5499% 100.00% 12820 12317424.76733 76.09% 21.12% 100.0000% 4349.99858
Total 26639831 6.67% 1.70% 100.0000% 78082 12317424.76733 76.09% 21.12% 100.0000% 4349.99858
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 282957 28/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24171974 0.00% 0.00% 90.4597% 76212 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404235 38.40% 8.87% 1.5128% 15.86% -49 0.00404 38.40% 8.87% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 899061 82.50% 30.13% 3.3646% 35.27% 498 181.89135 74.41% 10.66% 0.0015% 0.18035
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 761638 69.89% 9.23% 2.8503% 29.88% 3994 15990.74809 74.51% 13.76% 0.1298% 82.99612
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 255758 70.29% 8.75% 0.9571% 10.03% 1132 117120.68258 75.41% 11.14% 0.9506% 357.15306
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 101262 68.17% 9.12% 0.3790% 3.97% -253 248323.48642 69.95% 9.57% 2.0154% -347.57932
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31638 72.33% 8.33% 0.1184% 1.24% -85 246703.95578 74.33% 8.32% 2.0023% -882.56810
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25138 69.88% 8.77% 0.0941% 0.99% -44 417972.10142 71.37% 8.99% 3.3923% -1069.12419
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50260 92.76% 74.09% 0.1881% 1.97% 0 2331278.68717 94.42% 79.33% 18.9208% 154.23045
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4543 71.52% 16.51% 0.0170% 0.18% 12 271159.20510 70.95% 15.02% 2.2007% 607.74901
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5542 82.66% 8.14% 0.0207% 0.22% -6 523510.42953 83.59% 8.21% 4.2488% -225.38738
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7640 70.37% 8.29% 0.0286% 0.30% 22 1711087.35302 71.81% 8.98% 13.8873% 6082.15603
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1470 73.74% 6.80% 0.0055% 0.06% 1 1133771.97994 75.56% 7.07% 9.2017% 240.19488
> 1000 BTC 1104 67.39% 10.69% 0.0041% 0.04% -2 5304174.24087 69.89% 6.34% 43.0489% -1150.00323
Total Actives 2549289 69.83% 17.76% 9.5403% 100.00% 5220 12321274.76502 76.12% 21.10% 100.0000% 3849.99769
Total 26721263 6.66% 1.69% 100.0000% 81432 12321274.76502 76.12% 21.10% 100.0000% 3849.99769
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 283109 29/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of act diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0 24234079 0.00% 0.00% 90.4533% 62105 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404237 38.41% 8.87% 1.5088% 15.80% 2 0.00404 38.41% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 899892 82.47% 30.10% 3.3588% 35.18% 831 182.30419 74.35% 10.64% 0.0015% 0.41283
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 767023 69.81% 9.17% 2.8629% 29.99% 5385 16150.22650 74.29% 13.62% 0.1310% 159.47841
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 257866 70.10% 8.68% 0.9625% 10.08% 2108 117705.99111 75.29% 11.08% 0.9550% 585.30853
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 101407 68.09% 9.10% 0.3785% 3.96% 145 248677.62562 69.87% 9.55% 2.0177% 354.13919
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 31616 72.31% 8.33% 0.1180% 1.24% -22 246483.77013 74.31% 8.31% 1.9999% -220.18565
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 25148 69.71% 8.77% 0.0939% 0.98% 10 418519.34681 71.22% 8.98% 3.3957% 547.24539
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50240 92.76% 74.12% 0.1875% 1.96% -20 2330537.56489 94.42% 79.35% 18.9089% -741.12228
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4545 71.60% 16.48% 0.0170% 0.18% 2 271334.28814 71.06% 14.99% 2.2015% 175.08303
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5537 82.59% 8.15% 0.0207% 0.22% -5 522813.70230 83.54% 8.22% 4.2419% -696.72724
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7631 70.20% 8.26% 0.0285% 0.30% -9 1709337.61264 71.65% 8.95% 13.8688% -1749.74038
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1476 73.51% 6.78% 0.0055% 0.06% 6 1136998.48978 75.39% 7.05% 9.2251% 3226.50984
> 1000 BTC 1111 67.06% 10.62% 0.0041% 0.04% 7 5306333.83773 69.80% 6.34% 43.0532% 2159.59686
Total Actives 2557729 69.77% 17.70% 9.5467% 100.00% 8440 12325074.76358 76.03% 21.09% 100.0000% 3799.99856
Total 26791808 6.66% 1.69% 100.0000% 70545 12325074.76358 76.03% 21.09% 100.0000% 3799.99856
num : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table
donations : 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN
gbianchi bitcointalk.org bitcoin-italia.org
A BITCOIN PRICE THEORY
This short work is an attempt to find a law of bitcoin price . It is a work in progress ,
there may be errors even coarse that you reported to me , so critical and / or additions .
After about a month of work , I edit this first post to summarize the results obtained.
terminology
Zero address : A Bitcoin address tha was used, then it appears in blockchain ,
but currently has a zero balance.
Active address : A Bitcoin address tha was used, then it appears in blockchain ,
and currently has a NON zero balance .
Total addresses : Zero + active addresses.
Active user : Any user who has one or more active addresses .
working steps :
1 ) Obtain the tables with data from the blockchain (number of addresses for range of balance,)
number of bitcoins for range of balances, Total addresses, etc. .. )
2 ) Obtain the tables on prices.
3 ) Obtain the regressions of 2) and look for the data that best correlate with 1 )
4) derive a (possible) pricing formula
at the end, I added some faq and a PRICE THEORY PROPOSAL
STEP 1: BLOCKCHAIN ANALYSIS
For the determination of an equation of bitcoin price, I started from the idea of
analyze the data contained in blockchain .So , I started to write a program
that parses the blockchain to extract the data in a structured way .
With continued work, more and more I realized that the blockchain
is a source of valuable information , since it allows to evaluate even the smallest
details of the evolution in the bitcoin universe.
From discussions with users of the forum ( thank you in particular ercolinux ,
giubi66 , ovijunno for interesting suggestions) I have improved the methods of
data extraction.
In particular , I created the reference range of balances in BTC ,
and of these I extracted data on a daily basis.
In summary, to avoid publishing dozens of graphics and / or tables
with tedious data, I have found that the "total number of addresses"
has two interesting properties ' :
1) from October 2011 are growing on a regularexponential basis.
2) apparently are not affected by changes in prices and the news good or bad
(either in April 2013 or the recent peak in November !!!!)
( The line at top of chart is the total number of addresses present in blockchain )
From this chart we can see that at the beginning of 2011 had not yet been well-established
the ranges of capital and the speed ' of growth, while from mid-2011 onwards are consolidated
certain proportions that remain fundamentally unchanged until today.
The same conclusion, that towards the end of 2011 the world is bitcoin "stabilizes"
is obtained by looking at the chart for the total value of BTC in every range of balance:
The universe bitcoin enters 2012 with the social classes of the rich and the poor already
well-defined and basically unchanged ratios since now !
Here is a graphical representation of the distribution of bitcoin addresses for range of balance:
As we see more than 90% of the addresses are empty. I think the total number of addresses
(consisting largely of empty address as is easily seen here) and that I use in my formula,
accurately measures the use of the bitcoin network , and the number of transactions.
So it could lead to a "network value" as given by the famous Metcalfe's Law
interesting comparison between the graph of the total number of addresses ( without the addresses to balance 0)
and the graph of the total capital in BTC :
Please note that in the two charts the order of the data is inverted for clarity:
the left chart and the first data is small capitalization in right chart first data is hight capitalization.
0.05% of addresses ( those with balance > 1000 ) that are a slice of the graph to the left absolutely invisible ,
has more 'than 42 % of the capital, the largest slice in the right chart !
STEP 2: PRICES ANALISYS
The price analysis was definitely more simple: I wrote a simple program
that takes prices from blochckain.info .
The interesting consideration is that the prices ( although in a more irregular way)
are growing exponentially, and so I created the regressions
on a logarithmic scale in order to have the indicators less " nervous " of proce speed growth .
Here is the result :
As you can see I have 3 calculated regression lines : since the beginning of 2011 , by the beginning of 2012 and beginning of 2013.
STEP 3: COMPARISON OF BLOCKCHAIN DATA / PRICE
The comparison between the two "worlds" , the seemingly chaotic and irregular prices, and the
completely "calculable" of blockchain , led me to some interesting results .
the growth curve of the totla addresses , has a nearly perfect correlation ( by end of 2011)
with the regression line price !
STEP 4: THE PRICE EQUATION
with a little elementary math, was easy to derive from this series of observations
an "Hypothetical" (but very effective ) price equation :
definitions:
I = total number of addresses (From blockchain)
P = price in dollars (The result)
m = coefficient angular straight line ( constant to be determined)
P = ordinate at the origin (constant to be determined)
^ = Exponentiation
We derive the equation of the price from the period of strong correlation identified
from previous studies of price in dollars and the total number of addresses .
since the linear correlation on logarithmic axes, we can assume:
m * log (I) + p = log ( P)
for the values of I p , we use addresses and prices
the extremes of the strong correlation :
I1 = number addresses to 01/01/2012 = 2773046
P1 = price at 01/01/2012 = $ 5.2
I2 = number addresses to 24/12/2013 = 24,296,059
P2 = price = $ 698.43 24/12/2013
can easily be obtained
m = (log (P2 ) -log ( P1 ) ) / (log (I2 ) -log (I1 ) ) = 2.25776380522923
p = log ( P1) - log (I1) * m = - 31.8462990266051
then the final equation will be :
2.25776380522923 * log (I) - 31.8462990266051 = log ( P)
e ^ ( ( 2.25776380522923 * log (I) - 31.8462990266051 ) ) = P
( I ^ 2.25776380522923 ) / ( e ^ 31.8462990266051 ) = P
Reduce the decimal places, that does not change the substance but make equation
easy to remember and even more elegant:
P = ( I ^ 2.26) / (e ^ 32 )
FAQ
1 ) So how much is the bitcoin tomorrow ?
Of course, as is easily seen from the graph, the function give a trend of prices ( llittle overestimated
than the average ) , this means that we do not give the exact price tomorrow or in a week , but rather
an indication of what can be a consistent price .
2 ) Does it work?
would have more or less worked for two years from early 2012 to now (though often overestimate )
but the trend was clearly indicated right . For the future, we will check together, if it continues to be valid
or not.
3 ) why it work?
This is a typical case in which we get a hypothetical "reads" from a statistical analysis. Now it is right to ask
'why it should work. I did have some idea , namely that in the end the total number of addresses is
a great aggragato of important factors in determining the price, in particular:
a) definitely depends on the number of users ( as seen from the correlation with the number of active addresses )
b ) and definitely ' also dependent on the speed' of movement, ie the number of remains , operations and overall
new addresses that are handled in the course of operations.
c) the square (plus .26) give me to think at something like Metcalfe's law ....
But I intend to deepen the investigation on this topic .
4) Please fit us a function for the price dependent on time P(t) = function (time-offset) Thanks.
here the function you request:
P = e^(((days from 01/01/2012) * 0.0067) + 1.641))
example: price at 31/12/2014 =
days from 01/01/2012 to 31/12/2014 = 366 + 365 + 365 = 1096
P = e^((1096*0.0067) + 1.641) = 7976.06132258175
5) the total number of addresses as a function of time ?
here the answer:
Addresses = 2764582*e^((days from 01/01/2012)*0.00297)
that extimate for the end of 2014 about 71.000.000 of total addresses (active + zero)
PRICE THEORY PROPOSAL
After several trial and error, I found a function that has a good correlation with the trend of the price,
and has the great advantage of having a quadratic relationship with the performance of the addresses :
P = (IZ ^ 2 ) / ( e ^ 27.5 )
Where IZ is the number of zero addresses.
This complies with the law of metcalfe:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law
I also think that zero addresses match better with the law of metcalfe for these properties:
1) each zero balance address has at least one entry operation, in fact, appears in blockchain.
2) Each zero balance address has at least one operation in output that perfectly compensates the previous.
3) The addresses at a zero balance are more than 90% of the total addresses , so perfectly represent the trend
the whole network.
zero addresses have interacted in some way between them, creating network effect,
while many addresses with a positive balance may not have interact with anyone
(many addresses are used for storage who have never output operations).
I propose the following theory :
Bitcoin is a network and its value depends on the square of the addresses in zero balance,
that represent the nodes that interact, in accordance with the Metcalfe law:
P = (IZ ^ 2 ) / ( e ^ 27.5 )
Here the plot of the original function (the one with addresses in total)
and the new ( function address zero)
If you find this work useful and / or interesting and ' welcome a donation to support the project: 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN
This short work is an attempt to find a law of bitcoin price . It is a work in progress ,
there may be errors even coarse that you reported to me , so critical and / or additions .
After about a month of work , I edit this first post to summarize the results obtained.
terminology
Zero address : A Bitcoin address tha was used, then it appears in blockchain ,
but currently has a zero balance.
Active address : A Bitcoin address tha was used, then it appears in blockchain ,
and currently has a NON zero balance .
Total addresses : Zero + active addresses.
Active user : Any user who has one or more active addresses .
working steps :
1 ) Obtain the tables with data from the blockchain (number of addresses for range of balance,)
number of bitcoins for range of balances, Total addresses, etc. .. )
2 ) Obtain the tables on prices.
3 ) Obtain the regressions of 2) and look for the data that best correlate with 1 )
4) derive a (possible) pricing formula
at the end, I added some faq and a PRICE THEORY PROPOSAL
STEP 1: BLOCKCHAIN ANALYSIS
For the determination of an equation of bitcoin price, I started from the idea of
analyze the data contained in blockchain .So , I started to write a program
that parses the blockchain to extract the data in a structured way .
With continued work, more and more I realized that the blockchain
is a source of valuable information , since it allows to evaluate even the smallest
details of the evolution in the bitcoin universe.
From discussions with users of the forum ( thank you in particular ercolinux ,
giubi66 , ovijunno for interesting suggestions) I have improved the methods of
data extraction.
In particular , I created the reference range of balances in BTC ,
and of these I extracted data on a daily basis.
In summary, to avoid publishing dozens of graphics and / or tables
with tedious data, I have found that the "total number of addresses"
has two interesting properties ' :
1) from October 2011 are growing on a regularexponential basis.
2) apparently are not affected by changes in prices and the news good or bad
(either in April 2013 or the recent peak in November !!!!)
( The line at top of chart is the total number of addresses present in blockchain )
From this chart we can see that at the beginning of 2011 had not yet been well-established
the ranges of capital and the speed ' of growth, while from mid-2011 onwards are consolidated
certain proportions that remain fundamentally unchanged until today.
The same conclusion, that towards the end of 2011 the world is bitcoin "stabilizes"
is obtained by looking at the chart for the total value of BTC in every range of balance:
The universe bitcoin enters 2012 with the social classes of the rich and the poor already
well-defined and basically unchanged ratios since now !
Here is a graphical representation of the distribution of bitcoin addresses for range of balance:
As we see more than 90% of the addresses are empty. I think the total number of addresses
(consisting largely of empty address as is easily seen here) and that I use in my formula,
accurately measures the use of the bitcoin network , and the number of transactions.
So it could lead to a "network value" as given by the famous Metcalfe's Law
interesting comparison between the graph of the total number of addresses ( without the addresses to balance 0)
and the graph of the total capital in BTC :
 |  |
Please note that in the two charts the order of the data is inverted for clarity:
the left chart and the first data is small capitalization in right chart first data is hight capitalization.
0.05% of addresses ( those with balance > 1000 ) that are a slice of the graph to the left absolutely invisible ,
has more 'than 42 % of the capital, the largest slice in the right chart !
STEP 2: PRICES ANALISYS
The price analysis was definitely more simple: I wrote a simple program
that takes prices from blochckain.info .
The interesting consideration is that the prices ( although in a more irregular way)
are growing exponentially, and so I created the regressions
on a logarithmic scale in order to have the indicators less " nervous " of proce speed growth .
Here is the result :
As you can see I have 3 calculated regression lines : since the beginning of 2011 , by the beginning of 2012 and beginning of 2013.
STEP 3: COMPARISON OF BLOCKCHAIN DATA / PRICE
The comparison between the two "worlds" , the seemingly chaotic and irregular prices, and the
completely "calculable" of blockchain , led me to some interesting results .
the growth curve of the totla addresses , has a nearly perfect correlation ( by end of 2011)
with the regression line price !
STEP 4: THE PRICE EQUATION
with a little elementary math, was easy to derive from this series of observations
an "Hypothetical" (but very effective ) price equation :
definitions:
I = total number of addresses (From blockchain)
P = price in dollars (The result)
m = coefficient angular straight line ( constant to be determined)
P = ordinate at the origin (constant to be determined)
^ = Exponentiation
We derive the equation of the price from the period of strong correlation identified
from previous studies of price in dollars and the total number of addresses .
since the linear correlation on logarithmic axes, we can assume:
m * log (I) + p = log ( P)
for the values of I p , we use addresses and prices
the extremes of the strong correlation :
I1 = number addresses to 01/01/2012 = 2773046
P1 = price at 01/01/2012 = $ 5.2
I2 = number addresses to 24/12/2013 = 24,296,059
P2 = price = $ 698.43 24/12/2013
can easily be obtained
m = (log (P2 ) -log ( P1 ) ) / (log (I2 ) -log (I1 ) ) = 2.25776380522923
p = log ( P1) - log (I1) * m = - 31.8462990266051
then the final equation will be :
2.25776380522923 * log (I) - 31.8462990266051 = log ( P)
e ^ ( ( 2.25776380522923 * log (I) - 31.8462990266051 ) ) = P
( I ^ 2.25776380522923 ) / ( e ^ 31.8462990266051 ) = P
Reduce the decimal places, that does not change the substance but make equation
easy to remember and even more elegant:
P = ( I ^ 2.26) / (e ^ 32 )
FAQ
1 ) So how much is the bitcoin tomorrow ?
Of course, as is easily seen from the graph, the function give a trend of prices ( llittle overestimated
than the average ) , this means that we do not give the exact price tomorrow or in a week , but rather
an indication of what can be a consistent price .
2 ) Does it work?
would have more or less worked for two years from early 2012 to now (though often overestimate )
but the trend was clearly indicated right . For the future, we will check together, if it continues to be valid
or not.
3 ) why it work?
This is a typical case in which we get a hypothetical "reads" from a statistical analysis. Now it is right to ask
'why it should work. I did have some idea , namely that in the end the total number of addresses is
a great aggragato of important factors in determining the price, in particular:
a) definitely depends on the number of users ( as seen from the correlation with the number of active addresses )
b ) and definitely ' also dependent on the speed' of movement, ie the number of remains , operations and overall
new addresses that are handled in the course of operations.
c) the square (plus .26) give me to think at something like Metcalfe's law ....
But I intend to deepen the investigation on this topic .
4) Please fit us a function for the price dependent on time P(t) = function (time-offset) Thanks.
here the function you request:
P = e^(((days from 01/01/2012) * 0.0067) + 1.641))
example: price at 31/12/2014 =
days from 01/01/2012 to 31/12/2014 = 366 + 365 + 365 = 1096
P = e^((1096*0.0067) + 1.641) = 7976.06132258175
5) the total number of addresses as a function of time ?
here the answer:
Addresses = 2764582*e^((days from 01/01/2012)*0.00297)
that extimate for the end of 2014 about 71.000.000 of total addresses (active + zero)
PRICE THEORY PROPOSAL
After several trial and error, I found a function that has a good correlation with the trend of the price,
and has the great advantage of having a quadratic relationship with the performance of the addresses :
P = (IZ ^ 2 ) / ( e ^ 27.5 )
Where IZ is the number of zero addresses.
This complies with the law of metcalfe:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law
I also think that zero addresses match better with the law of metcalfe for these properties:
1) each zero balance address has at least one entry operation, in fact, appears in blockchain.
2) Each zero balance address has at least one operation in output that perfectly compensates the previous.
3) The addresses at a zero balance are more than 90% of the total addresses , so perfectly represent the trend
the whole network.
zero addresses have interacted in some way between them, creating network effect,
while many addresses with a positive balance may not have interact with anyone
(many addresses are used for storage who have never output operations).
I propose the following theory :
Bitcoin is a network and its value depends on the square of the addresses in zero balance,
that represent the nodes that interact, in accordance with the Metcalfe law:
P = (IZ ^ 2 ) / ( e ^ 27.5 )
Here the plot of the original function (the one with addresses in total)
and the new ( function address zero)
If you find this work useful and / or interesting and ' welcome a donation to support the project: 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN
Jump to: