Brownout
The intention is for blocks to be full so that transactions bid for space with transaction fees.
Ultimately, transaction fees alone will pay for the security. If nobody pays transaction fees (because they don't have to), then there will be no incentives to mine and and 51% attack will be possible.
Topic: 1MBCON Advisory System Status: Yellow Alert ELEVATED - page 2. (Read 2420 times)
WHEN'S THE HARD FORK!! ? 
I need time to get enough popcorn..
Bring it on.
I need time to get enough popcorn..
Bring it on.
At first I was tempted to go with "guarded", but after looking more closely I'd agree with "elevated". There have only been a few brief occasions in the last 60 days when we've been below 0.3MB, so on this scale we are indeed in the yellow. Also this is something that could escalate quickly and at short notice, so I'm pleased people are taking note of this. Perhaps the wording of the scale might need tweaking, though. At 30%-45%, I don't know if I'd call that a significant risk of delay.
Maybe bump them all up one and add a new category above 90%, so:
0-15% = Very low risk
15-30% = Limited risk
30-45% = Some general risk
45-60% = Significant risk
60-75% = High risk
75-90% = Severe risk
90%+ = Bottleneck
Maybe bump them all up one and add a new category above 90%, so:
0-15% = Very low risk
15-30% = Limited risk
30-45% = Some general risk
45-60% = Significant risk
60-75% = High risk
75-90% = Severe risk
90%+ = Bottleneck
Fair points, but I really don't think 75%+ presents simply just a "risk". At that level there will be clear and present time periods of delays because not all miners will fill blocks even when unconfirmed, fee paying, tx are backing up by the thousands. Near-empty blocks are churned out at random intervals by many different miners. Also, as soon as a pool solves a block new work requests are often met with an empty block template. So 90%+ is unlikely to be seen, yet the bottleneck will be happening.
The risk of a flooding attack also grows as the cost of executing one drops as the average block size increases. It becomes very cheap in the end.
At first I was tempted to go with "guarded", but after looking more closely I'd agree with "elevated". There have only been a few brief occasions in the last 60 days when we've been below 0.3MB, so on this scale we are indeed in the yellow. Also this is something that could escalate quickly and at short notice, so I'm pleased people are taking note of this. Perhaps the wording of the scale might need tweaking, though. At 30%-45%, I don't know if I'd call that a significant risk of delay.
Maybe bump them all up one and add a new category above 90%, so:
0-15% = Very low risk
15-30% = Limited risk
30-45% = Some general risk
45-60% = Significant risk
60-75% = High risk
75-90% = Severe risk
90%+ = Bottleneck
Maybe bump them all up one and add a new category above 90%, so:
0-15% = Very low risk
15-30% = Limited risk
30-45% = Some general risk
45-60% = Significant risk
60-75% = High risk
75-90% = Severe risk
90%+ = Bottleneck
Guarded looks the best to me.
Introducing the 1MBCON Advisory System which gives a quick overview of the risk conditions against timely transaction confirmations into the blockchain.
The debate has been thorough and extensive. Now the status of the risk needs to be tracked: average size of 1000 blocks (7 days) as a percentage of 1MB
End of Q1, 2015
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