Topic: 20/05/2014 Price movement from $445-500 (Read 5073 times)

Absolutely! We've been in this game just under a year now - it's one volatile bitch, for sure.

Hoping for volume projecting a breach of your red line, I too think it looks like that way - but as always, let Bitcoin do her thing.

I am not saying that we will get a $460-$500, I am saying that this would be a textbook retracement if one of the plausible possibilities were to ring true.

What I am saying is that convincing breach on volume of red line = Buy; whereas breach of green line = sell.

I suspect  that the red line is rather more likely to be breached than the green line, but one can never be too careful in this vicious cocksucker of a market.

It's all good brother - we were sideways $450 for an age! Decided then to hold out for another mini crash, and shot very low buy-in price. Very happy with the $480 buy-in considering I've been lucky and managed to sell a lot @~$560-$570 (funds are already on way to Bstamp).

Yeah $460-$500 on your indicators sounds ok and reasonable, however there will have to be quite significant volume to do that. I agree that we could stay around $520 on BStamp for a week or so. I think we'll be locking-in orders around $506, hopefully lower. But don't see this happening by Tuesday.

Best of luck with the potential re-trace brother - Hope it happens for us! Let me know when you spot some movement.

 

Until we are confirmed out of the grander Wave 4 corrective cycle, Bitcoin will continue to be a rattle snake and will bite you should you make any over impulsive or otherwise wrong move. Forget about the 'woulda, shoulda, coulda' factor that you are agonising over, and just try to play the chart without emotion.

As can be seen from the chart above, Bitcoin technically breached the Jan 2013, support line, but on low volume and not very convincingly, and then smashed through the Jan 2014 resistance line (not shown on chart) and proceeded into a rather vertical and very clean 5 Wave impulse move up towards the Dec 2013 resistance line, where it stopped dead.

Perhaps not very clear to see on this chart, is the black line denoting the support trend of the mini-bull run. This support line has now been breached, so it can be assumed that the bull-run is halted for now, and that Bitcoin needs to correct for a while. The burning questions are:

Are we in the midst of a Primary 5 Wave Impulse move? (medium term bullish)
Have we just seen the culmination of a 3 wave corrective move? (bearish)

At this point in time, I really don't know what the answer to these questions are going to be, but by looking at the chart, should Bitcoin breach the red resistance line, then chances are that we have just had Wave (1) of a Primary Wave [3] Impulse move up, and will be in the beginnings of a Wave (3) move by the time the red line is breached. If this were to be the case, then a textbook retracement would take us back to somewhere $460-$500. However, for anyone looking to buy in on retracement, there is still the very real risk that we are not in midst of a bear trend breakout out at all, but have just experienced a corrective 3 wave (abc) move, and are at the beginnings of a further 5 wave impulse bear trend. If this were the case, then anyone who 'successfully' buys-in at say $480, could find themselves on the end of a slaughtering. For me, a (convincing) breach of the red resistance trendline would be the next buy point, and a breach of the green support trendline would be a raging screaming sell.

Currently, we are in a no-trade zone, unless you happen to be a bit of a gambler or have market insight which I am overlooking at the moment, or hasn't yet transpired.

Sounds reasonable - Congratulations on $460-$520 margin (don't blame you for taking those profits) - I am hoping for a re-trace too, think we'll be happy to acquire another load @ ~sub$500-%505.

Strongly considering moving exchanges to Kraken. Bitstamp has been excellent they also seem to be processing my deposits more efficiently (2 days) however the spread is becoming significant. Seems to be a median range of $16 above over all over exchanges.

12Hr charts on btcwisdom show massive correction on April 1st, this was the last time in this price range. Can't remember whether that was news induced?
We bought a chunk around $480 after weeks of holding out for $380 - Yes I am a retard 

Still looking to buy some more, and hoping for a significant correction to sub$500 - Got a feeling this rally ain't over, current price is @ $528 are you looking to buy back around $508?

A 1500 BTC wall got pulled last night at $530 (Never trust the walls). Upon its disappearance their was a flurry of smaller buys that ate into the greatly diminished Ask Wall, but just not very much. Zooming out from the 15 minute chart, it can be seen that Bitcoin has just had yet another vertical moment and it can be seen that with each successive high (on Stamp), the volume has been decreasing and the RSI is showing negative divergence on all the smaller time frames. I came out my trade $20 too early (so far), but a correction at this point is now looking even more probable.

Bitcoin falling and staying below $520-$525 would be a sign that the rally is over and correction phase has begun. Correction could bottom out anywhere between $450-$500 and then the market would have to then decide again whether we have had our mid term reversal or whether we are still correcting and $450-$540 was merely a counter-trend rally. If I am proven wrong, and we can get above $545 on strong volume and retest it as a support, then this would be a very portentious long opportunity.

Yeah was looking at Vol's - thought we'd might see a rally up to $545 range to match last resistance in that range. Like you said we'd need another 20000K BTC to come into Bstamp ($550)

I'm currently managing to sell at $570 for next buy back on Monday. Hopefully in the $500 range.

As an update on what I am doing, I am coming out my trade at $520. 4 Hour indicators are looking pretty much maxed, or approaching maxed, we have had a clear impulse 5 wave leg up, and interest seems to be grinding down as we approach the $528 high and it would take some 3K BTC of buying power to break wall at $530. I could see a retracement right back into mid/upper $400s from here, so am deciding to take my profits now.

If I am wrong, and Bitcoin continues to advance North without first experiencing any meaningful retracement, then I would be looking for breach and hold of long term trendline (currently around $550) before taking another long.

I did, and agree - collective volume on 20/05 was impressive - nice one Mat!   Like you say will keep eye on sudden influxes, was thinking another 60,000BTC on Bstamp could be added today/tomorrow.

We got pretty close to $550 already. There is a flurry of optimism around regarding Bitcoin at this very moment so I would imagine that there will be another surge of buying power to retest the recent $528 high. When/if this comes, I would be looking very closely at the sort of volume that takes it up there. If the volume increases over the volume of the break out, and/or the the volume of of the $490-$528 leg up, then I would be looking to stay long at this point. Also worth noting, is that there is a lot of 'public' Bitcoin investment advice stating that if Bitcoin can breach and hold above the $545, then that is a sure-fire long signal. So having had an up until now 5 months bear market in Bitcoin, this ~$550 price range on the one remaining resistance trendline really is a critical point for the Bitcoin market.

I am currently holding my $460 long position, keeping a watchful eye on some short term EW trendlines I have drawn on my charts. Should the closest one to the action be breached, then I will exit the trade. What is more likely however, is that this trendline will be tested, support will hold, and Bitcoin will get another drive up towards the critical long term resistance zone. In this case, I shall either have sell orders set up or will be looking to sell at around $540-$550. If Bitcoin takes out this range convincingly on increasing volume, then I shall buy back in.....or if the rise is looking strong enough before hand, I may just hold my BTC through this threshold zone. If volume on the increase up to $550 area is decreasing over the volume spikes we have seen that has taken us up, then chances are that we will correct strongly from $550 area and will have to monitor further chart action to determine whether Bitcoin is indeed currently in the midst of a kind of Wave 3 (medium term bullish) or coming towards the end of a corrective Wave C (bearish).

Remember, this is all 'if's'. We could have topped at $528. We could have, but I doubt it. I think there is further to go for now.

Keep your eyes on the charts and most importantly, on Huobi. Despite what the Kool-Aid drinking fkn arseholes on this forum are trying to claim, Huobi has had a ten minute lead on Bitstamp for every leg of this break out rally. I have read enough posters trying to claim the opposite that has got to the point that if anyone is trying to state that Stamp is leading and then back up their claims with some form of rambling debate or 'evidence', they are going right on ignore because such people will never have anything to say to anyone that is truly balanced and helpful, infact anything that such people have to say will have quite the opposite effect.....but don't take my word for it. Got to Bitcoinwisdom, go to the 1 minute charts of Huobi and Bitstamp and see for yourself who is leading who.

I think we are going to be here for a  week or more ....it really seems to be doing the stair case moves & then consolidation

I think we have really matured and its a very slow confidence building process ...we have just come out of a horrific downtrend with many pplz being burnt in many ways not just from trading losses.... GOX just to drop one name lolz


Its looking like a really solid base and all of the wild swings have definatlly been taken out of the market with teh removal of teh china margin stuff

DOnt be surprised to 50$ qauntum steps

I would take market as i dont see it dipping below 480 as we consolidate further.... but 450 would be a 5-10% chance in my book

You are not alone my client (for use of a better word) has now moved his bid up to 450 ..I still think he is dreaming and I reckon this will be a trading lesson for him that he will learn teh hard way lolz

I am not going to play semantic games with you....."Yeah i say things without any thought" 

Dont talk to me anymore....as you obviously cant handle ever being WRONG in anything ...

Good luck with that in trading 

YipYip, what do you reckon mate? Going past $500 this session or mini correction first.

BStamps KYC questionnaire is pretty straight forward. Think it's sent automatically when you've deposited over $75K trade volume with them.
Took about 2 days for them to clear after sending  

So your pretty sure MAT we are heading towards $550?

Well said, to be fair!

What do you think of today's reduced volume? Any large (30000+ BTC) 1 day red candles after $550?

If you are jumping up and down telling people to go long all the time, regardless of what the market is doing, why should anyone listen to you?

I have however taken a long position, albeit with a fraction of the capital that I did have in Bitcoin since Bitstamp won't let me deposit fresh funds without giving me an anal probe first. But I went long at $462 to the tune of 11 whole BTC. I anticipate a further break out up to at least the final existing log resistance trendline (currently ~$550), from which point, things will start to get interesting.

I had been saying to take a position many times from 450 to many people

yes i also said it AGAIN to you  @ 510 which was the same time I took another tranche of coin

So you would on average be up btw both on a coin averaged weight...To be truthly honest i dont give a flying fuck about who was right & who is wrong as trading is not about this

So from 410-510  (i.e sub 500 is a good price)  I haev been jumping up and down saying to peopel to go long and that this is teh bottom which it IS

Cheers for pointing that out, wasn't aware volume really decreased compared to yesterday (So far??)

I think the whales maybe making large acquisitions @ market? So their volume is masked until order goes in?

I think its just a small bump.. there are really no good news , probably we can go to 550 but then it will back up again..