Topic: 2011 vs. 2013: The Definitive Comparison - page 2. (Read 1922 times)
What if we assumed 2013 won't be like 2011?
nice charts
Again the timescales are different.
This is a scaling of 2.5
Tweaking it to match the mid bear-market crunch 11/13 would result in a even more impressive match.
This is a scaling of 2.5
Tweaking it to match the mid bear-market crunch 11/13 would result in a even more impressive match.
(Starts of the bubble periods aligned; chart compares percentage changes)
Note three things about this log-scale chart:
- The 2013 bubble took three months to rise from $13 to $260
- The 2011 bubble took only two months to rise from the equivalent of $13 to about $550; that's more than twice as high in 2/3 the time
- Even though 2011 went much higher and faster, and even though it looked like the end of Bitcoin, the price bottomed out at the equivalent of about $35-40 - then promptly tripled and held rather steady
Conclusion: If this is a repeat of 2011...
1) There's no reason to suspect from comparison alone that we will bottom out below around $60, since there isn't nearly the excess to burn off that was there in 2011. According to the "Repeat of 2011" theory, it wouldn't be at all surprising if we already saw the bottom last week at $66.
2) We'll end up consolidating at $100 for quite a while.
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