Topic: [2014-05-14] Could One Bitcoin Come To Be Worth $1 Billion? (Read 1685 times)
Most of the people are not realizing that the USD is losing its value, because other currencies such as the UKP, EUR, and CHF are also losing their value. The CNY on the other hand, is kept devalued by the Chinese government to help exports.
Absolute BS. If one Bitcoin becomes equal to $1 billion, that means that the total market cap of the Bitcoin becomes $21,000 trillion. That is 100 times the world GDP. Not possible either theoretically or practically.
My first thought was the same; $1 Billion/BTC is totally insane.
What if the USD does a Zimbabwe 2.0 and becomes actually worthless?
Everyone knows $10 Billion/BTC is the minimum long-term sell price.
What's the world GDP measured in Zimbabwe Dollars?
Could pretty much only happen with a total collapse of the US dollar.
I think it could happen by 2018 or the latest by 2020 (once Hillary Clinton becomes the POTUS). Already the debt to GDP ratio is crossing 120%. Additional expenses from Obamacare, wars in Syria, Ukraine.etc will force them to print more and more dollar bills and treasury bonds. This can't go on indefinitely. The collapse is very near.
I think it would take a little bit more than that to collapse the US dollar
But if I'm holding btc I guess I'm on your side for now 
Could pretty much only happen with a total collapse of the US dollar.
I think it could happen by 2018 or the latest by 2020 (once Hillary Clinton becomes the POTUS). Already the debt to GDP ratio is crossing 120%. Additional expenses from Obamacare, wars in Syria, Ukraine.etc will force them to print more and more dollar bills and treasury bonds. This can't go on indefinitely. The collapse is very near.
Could pretty much only happen with a total collapse of the US dollar.
Now do your own math when BTC would be reaching 0.1%, 1% or even 10% of that valuation one day.
I think 0.1% of the world GDP must be a fair valuation for Bitcoin. On a higher estimate, we can take 1% maximum.
If BTC reaches 0.1% of the world GDP, then 1BTC = $17,142
If BTC reaches 1% of the world GDP, then 1BTC = $171,420
Valuations today:
US stocks ~~ $20 trln
US bonds ~~ $40 trln
US real estate ~~ $30 trln
---------------------------------------
Total ~~ $90 trln
That's only US, which is ~~25% of world GDP. Multiply by four and get ~~$360 trln for the whole world.
Now do your own math when BTC would be reaching 0.1%, 1% or even 10% of that valuation one day.
US stocks ~~ $20 trln
US bonds ~~ $40 trln
US real estate ~~ $30 trln
---------------------------------------
Total ~~ $90 trln
That's only US, which is ~~25% of world GDP. Multiply by four and get ~~$360 trln for the whole world.
Now do your own math when BTC would be reaching 0.1%, 1% or even 10% of that valuation one day.
I did the math for 100% of that and got $17 million, a far cry from $1 billion. Claiming Bitcoin could reach $1 billion is either taking things way too literally, to the point that it's completely misleading, or being way too optimistic.
Valuations today:
US stocks ~~ $20 trln
US bonds ~~ $40 trln
US real estate ~~ $30 trln
---------------------------------------
Total ~~ $90 trln
That's only US, which is ~~25% of world GDP. Multiply by four and get ~~$360 trln for the whole world.
Now do your own math when BTC would be reaching 0.1%, 1% or even 10% of that valuation one day.
US stocks ~~ $20 trln
US bonds ~~ $40 trln
US real estate ~~ $30 trln
---------------------------------------
Total ~~ $90 trln
That's only US, which is ~~25% of world GDP. Multiply by four and get ~~$360 trln for the whole world.
Now do your own math when BTC would be reaching 0.1%, 1% or even 10% of that valuation one day.
Absolute BS. If one Bitcoin becomes equal to $1 billion, that means that the total market cap of the Bitcoin becomes $21,000 trillion. That is 100 times the world GDP. Not possible either theoretically or practically.
funny how nobody bothered to set you right.
if btc or usd goes to zero aka dies of any not splitsecond event the other would go to infinety expressed in the former. While going to infinity it would eventually pass the billion without much drama. Who wants a billion worthless dollars?
anyway, billion was never mentioned there apparently.
This argument is ridiculous... I could say, "Could the price of sand reach $1 B per grain?" and answer "yes", only because this is true for everything. The question "Could Bitcoin come to be worth $1 billion?" clearly does not intend to mean "Could USD ever fall to 0.000000001 BTC?". That is an incorrect interpretation.
Note also the question asks "Could Bitcoin come to be worth $1 billion", which implies real valuation.
Yes, and the real valuation of the dollar can fall to abysmal levels. If we asked this same question concerning gold, it would be an entirely different issue. Fiat currencies aren't a special logical exception; their worth always falls to zilch, so the above question is correctly answered as "Yes, so long as bitcoin outlives the USD, one can be worth $1 billion."
You may believe the argument to be ridiculous, but so long as you concede that the argument is factually correct, your feelings on the matter are negligible.
The argument is factually correct in the sense that all of the following arguments are correct:
- Barack Obama holds #1 and #2 for number of votes won in a presidential election, for his 2008 and 2012 runs respectively.
- American GDP growth (in absolute terms) soared to record highs during Obama's second term.
- The amount of employed Americans has increased dramatically during Barack Obama's tenure.
Not even the Obama campaign is using these as arguments, however, despite that all of them are 100% "factually" correct. That's because the statements are so misleading, they cannot be said with a straight face. Anyone with two or more brain cells will notice that all above trends are almost tautological; they provide no information whatsoever about the quality of administration. They are caused by an unwavering trend that persists no matter who is running the country.
That's also why interpreting "Bitcoin to reach $1 billion" as a true statement is practically folly. Yes, it's factual as long as Bitcoin outlives the USD. But that can be said for anything. Just as my presidential statements above would apply equally to George Bush, the "to reach $1 billion" prediction applies to literally every commodity. Heck, the paper today's USD is printed on will eventually reach $1 billion. That doesn't mean I can seriously publish an article claiming "Dollar bill's value to reach $1 billion".
Absolute BS. If one Bitcoin becomes equal to $1 billion, that means that the total market cap of the Bitcoin becomes $21,000 trillion. That is 100 times the world GDP. Not possible either theoretically or practically.
funny how nobody bothered to set you right.
if btc or usd goes to zero aka dies of any not splitsecond event the other would go to infinety expressed in the former. While going to infinity it would eventually pass the billion without much drama. Who wants a billion worthless dollars?
anyway, billion was never mentioned there apparently.
This argument is ridiculous... I could say, "Could the price of sand reach $1 B per grain?" and answer "yes", only because this is true for everything. The question "Could Bitcoin come to be worth $1 billion?" clearly does not intend to mean "Could USD ever fall to 0.000000001 BTC?". That is an incorrect interpretation.
Note also the question asks "Could Bitcoin come to be worth $1 billion", which implies real valuation.
Yes, and the real valuation of the dollar can fall to abysmal levels. If we asked this same question concerning gold, it would be an entirely different issue. Fiat currencies aren't a special logical exception; their worth always falls to zilch, so the above question is correctly answered as "Yes, so long as bitcoin outlives the USD, one can be worth $1 billion."
You may believe the argument to be ridiculous, but so long as you concede that the argument is factually correct, your feelings on the matter are negligible.
You mean to tell me I can't even buy one bitcoin with my life's savings of 50 quadrillion Zimbabwean dollars that I diligently saved and stuffed under my mattress? 
lol... I wasn't saying that the Zimbabwe Dollar is completely worthless now. There is some demand from the coin / bill collectors. A 100 trillion ZD bill can fetch you $2-3 if you auction it in the Ebay. So... going by that.... your 50 quadrillion Zimbabwean dollars would fetch you some $1,000 to $1,500, if auctioned. So.. be happy. You can buy around BTC3 with your Zimbabwean dollar stash.
lol.... the Zimbabwean dollar is no longer used as a currency, after it was withdrawn in 2009. Now the most popular uses of the Zimbabwean dollar are:
1. Toilet Paper
2. Land-fill
3. Emergency fuel
You mean to tell me I can't even buy one bitcoin with my life's savings of 50 quadrillion Zimbabwean dollars that I diligently saved and stuffed under my mattress?
I guess it's a good thing that the market would never allow the USD to suffer that same fate.
What's the world GDP measured in Zimbabwe Dollars?
lol.... the Zimbabwean dollar is no longer used as a currency, after it was withdrawn in 2009. Now the most popular uses of the Zimbabwean dollar are:
1. Toilet Paper
2. Land-fill
3. Emergency fuel
Sure , why not?
Absolute BS. If one Bitcoin becomes equal to $1 billion, that means that the total market cap of the Bitcoin becomes $21,000 trillion. That is 100 times the world GDP. Not possible either theoretically or practically.
What's the world GDP measured in Zimbabwe Dollars?
Absolute BS. If one Bitcoin becomes equal to $1 billion, that means that the total market cap of the Bitcoin becomes $21,000 trillion. That is 100 times the world GDP. Not possible either theoretically or practically.
funny how nobody bothered to set you right.
if btc or usd goes to zero aka dies of any not splitsecond event the other would go to infinety expressed in the former. While going to infinity it would eventually pass the billion without much drama. Who wants a billion worthless dollars?
anyway, billion was never mentioned there apparently.
This argument is ridiculous... I could say, "Could the price of sand reach $1 B per grain?" and answer "yes", only because this is true for everything. The question "Could Bitcoin come to be worth $1 billion?" clearly does not intend to mean "Could USD ever fall to 0.000000001 BTC?". That is an incorrect interpretation.
Note also the question asks "Could Bitcoin come to be worth $1 billion", which implies real valuation.
Absolute BS. If one Bitcoin becomes equal to $1 billion, that means that the total market cap of the Bitcoin becomes $21,000 trillion. That is 100 times the world GDP. Not possible either theoretically or practically.
funny how nobody bothered to set you right.
if btc or usd goes to zero aka dies of any not splitsecond event the other would go to infinety expressed in the former. While going to infinity it would eventually pass the billion without much drama. Who wants a billion worthless dollars?
anyway, billion was never mentioned there apparently.
Another aspect is that transactions in the FX markets are $3-5T each business day.
This now exceed the level of over-estimation (10,000) and extra optimism (1,000,000) to super-optimism but if it actually did I wouldn't complain (1,000,000,000,00)
You're right! You developed the right formula
This now exceed the level of over-estimation (10,000) and extra optimism (1,000,000) to super-optimism but if it actually did I wouldn't complain (1,000,000,000,00)
Absolute BS. If one Bitcoin becomes equal to $1 billion, that means that the total market cap of the Bitcoin becomes $21,000 trillion. That is 100 times the world GDP. Not possible either theoretically or practically.
funny how nobody bothered to set you right.
if btc or usd goes to zero aka dies of any not splitsecond event the other would go to infinety expressed in the former. While going to infinity it would eventually pass the billion without much drama. Who wants a billion worthless dollars?
anyway, billion was never mentioned there apparently.
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