Topic: 2015 is THE year of bitcoin am I right guys? (Read 2370 times)

Maybe yes maybe no
But, i'm sure this community & adaption number will increase than last year

Source of your estimates does not appear to be your ass by any chance?

The Year of Bitcoin was 2013.

What a start in the new year. 

This has no bearing on the bitcoin economy. You have to understand that regular people are not going to take their money out of a regulated bank and put it into a wild wild west digital currency that has lost 70% of its value in the past year. And for a few paranoid types who do take all their money out of German banks... bitcoin is far down on the list behind US dollars or precious metals as safe havens.

Not sure where you got 12% from.  Inflation is high but it was intended to be high to ensure a wide distribution while providing an incentive to miners.  To have lower inflation would require either a) a larger existing supply (more benefit to early adopters) or b) a lower subsidy (less security).

Money supply growth (forward annualized basis) is
Today: 9.61%
01/01/2016: ~8.67%
Immediately after halving: 4.17%
Immediately after next halving: 1.79%

Well it should be there in 18 months or less.

People will likely go on saying x is the year of the bitcoin until we see a significant price increase. Maybe we never will or maybe we will be waiting a very long time for it. Sadly I don't think 2015 will be it but I hope I'm wrong.

As of this year it will be legal for german banks to steal from private bank accounts. Next year, the rest of the eurozone. Someone chime in with US stats. That's "some law" right there.

Bitcoin has had two bubbles - Silk Road, and China exchange controls. Those were driven by Bitcoin being a way to get around some law. That's what makes Bitcoin go up.

Merchant adoption hasn't made Bitcoin go up. Big investments in mining farms haven't made Bitcoin go up. Getting rid of the flakier exchanges hasn't made Bitcoin go up. Gimmicks for contracts in the block chain haven't made Bitcoin go up.  Short of another bubble, Bitcoin is going to do what it's been doing for most of 2014 - decline slowly.

yeah, you right.. more and more years

Maybe yes, maybe no. Who knows? This is a wild market.

my gut feeling is we'll have two bubbles between now and around the time of the next halving.    

There is one very important thing that puts a lower limit on the price. Mining. If it becomes so unprofitable to mine that a substantial amount of network power is lost, transmission time will slow down. Considering that the top 100 and 500 addresses are growing, I doubt they will allow that to happen.

And if 1 in 10 people used bitcoin the price would indeed be much higher, but not because "more people are using it in some way", but because of math.

the question is actually: how much brand new money comes in every day into the system? If we would have that exact number we could very precisely calculate where the bottom will be.

Do you believe there is more than 1Million USD brand new money every 24hours coming into bitcoin? Then you buy.
Do you believe there is much less than 1Million USD brand new money every 24hours coming into bitcoin? Then you sell.

pretty simple. Being able to make sense of the fundamentals certainly helps in speculation.

3600 new coins emission per day at a price of 300$ is 1080000 USD - every day what's being created in new coins.

Of course it's high - way too high. The higher the price of the bitcoin the higher the cost will be to run it.
Bitcoin will keep going down until we meet a point where daily inflation matches with inflow of new money - i would estimate that between 50k$ and 200k$ is realistic of new money for a day (every day - every 24 hours). I hate to spell it out but this would mean sub 100$ coins in case my estimate of new money per day is correct.
Right now we need to burn 1 million USD every 24 hours only to hold this price. I don't know what the real demand is - so could be 1 million every day new money comes in, i don't know. But these are the numbers ...

Solution is a coin with lower inflation. Something like 0,5% to 3% per year inflation would be reasonable not 8% to 12% like bitcoin because inflation needs to be paid every day - constantly. New coins created equals cost of running the network. So less dilution of coinsupply with new coins means less costs to run the network.

A coin with less than 1% inflation in a year can really rally and STAY UP! Bitcoin can rally but NOT STAY UP!

i wouldn't want to compare to cost of fiat-system ... that's an entirely different game.

Less inflation also means less volatility for that matter and better properties in preserving value. Crypto could be used to store value theoretically but 5%+ inflation isn't particularly good properties for a store of value.

All this calculations doesn't include the rampant shortselling which adds on top of it...

What is your source of this number? 1 Million seems a little bit high...are you sure?

And what is your solution? A more efficient Altcoin?

Please remember the costs for our current Fiat-money system...you have to print money, the huge amount of employees etc.

Running Bitcoin still costs 1 million Dollars each and every day. I think it's still too expensive. It'll have to come down maybe 90% more.

I know alts which would be much cheaper to run... Bitcoin is too expensive. No incentive for investors. Only incentive for miners. We need a coin that provides an incentive for investors too.

Bitcoin strikes no balance between miners and investors. It favours miners too much on the expense of the investors. I don't like investing in bitcoin at all right now.

8% to 12% inflation is a rippoff - it'll still be a rippoff after the halving.
More than 3% annual inflation this far into it is idiotic. Let's be honest: bitcoin is idiotic with the inflation. We've been witnessing miners dumping all year. There will be no end to the bleeding. The bleeding is infinite...

I think that 2015 will be the year for bitcoin to tank down in price more considering that many prices other than bitcoin are falling apart and coming down. Maybe this year alone will have some cheap BTC under $100 as theirs nothing to stop it falling down as theirs been  no mega news of bitcoin doing anything new lately other than bigger corporate company's accepting it as payment even tho bigger company's are accepting it as payment their still needs to be costumes using it. If the big guns accept it and don't see enough transactions with it then as some have already done removed it will case a  bigger impact on price. For Bitcoin to go up it needs more supply and more demands. Needs more people educated about it and to know what it is and how it can improve their business for payments. Not only that but bigger things like less fees to worries about though the BANKS. If Bitcoin can get to a point that 1 in 10 people have it and know something about it then am sure prices will be a lot better as more people would be using it in some way.

well, expcet 2014, in the past years btc have done very well!

actually it's not that bad, it's accumulation time i like it, tons of bitcoin now, and tons of value later