2016 Halving: Could It Actually Kill BTC? - page 2.

tokeweed

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Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value. There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far. If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out, make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game and basically slow the network? I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply. If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

just a shower thought, what's your take? and please, limit your "BTC CAN NEVAR DIE and you sir are a cock!" statements to provable truths, not opinionated speculation please. BTC could die and very well might. I hope not, but that isn't the point of this thread.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

Survival of the fittest among the miners.

futureofbitcoin

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Quote from: randy8777 on April 10, 2015, 09:28:04 PM

Quote from: futureofbitcoin on April 10, 2015, 09:10:28 PM

I agree with the OP. I don't know why so many people automatically assume that halving mining rewards would double the price.

Personally I think this is where bitcoin will prove whether it'll succeed or fail. If it doesn't get past the halving, it'll fail. If it does, I think it's very unlikely for bitcoin to fail afterwards. And I'd certainly be willing to take any amount of loan to buy as much bitcoins as possible then, if someone offered to loan me money.

it's simply because they like to see their investment pay off big time. i don't believe bitcoins future depends on the next halving. it will however have an impact on the price. just not as much as people think.

The event itself isn't so significant, but people's reactions, the psychology of what happens after the halving event might be. Will people mass panic because the price didn't go up like expected? Will miners start leaving the game, and people assume (whether with good reason or not) that bitcoins security is suddenly too low, and start panicking? Or will miners stay, giving confidence to the system, proving again that bitcoin can succeed with lower mining rewards?

randy8777

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Quote from: futureofbitcoin on April 10, 2015, 09:10:28 PM

I agree with the OP. I don't know why so many people automatically assume that halving mining rewards would double the price.

Personally I think this is where bitcoin will prove whether it'll succeed or fail. If it doesn't get past the halving, it'll fail. If it does, I think it's very unlikely for bitcoin to fail afterwards. And I'd certainly be willing to take any amount of loan to buy as much bitcoins as possible then, if someone offered to loan me money.

it's simply because they like to see their investment pay off big time. i don't believe bitcoins future depends on the next halving. it will however have an impact on the price. just not as much as people think.

coinableS

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I don't think it will be so black and white. If the price can not support the amount the miner's want after the halving there will be a large falling out. Bitcoin may become even more niche than it already is but there will always be die hards out there that will continue to use bitcoin and mine for free. Who knows maybe it will even spring back stronger than before after bitcoin proves that it can't be killed.

futureofbitcoin

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I agree with the OP. I don't know why so many people automatically assume that halving mining rewards would double the price.

Personally I think this is where bitcoin will prove whether it'll succeed or fail. If it doesn't get past the halving, it'll fail. If it does, I think it's very unlikely for bitcoin to fail afterwards. And I'd certainly be willing to take any amount of loan to buy as much bitcoins as possible then, if someone offered to loan me money.

Mr. Burns

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no it is the best thing to ever happen.

difficulty will drop by 99.99%, plus save the Earth with less greenhouse gases, etc..

dropt

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Quote from: Amph on April 10, 2015, 04:23:04 PM

chart show x2 in price

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/market-price?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

november 28 2012 the halving, it show about 11-12 dollars, when before that date it was 4-6

It started creeping up in May 2012. Know what else happened in May of 12'? The only 'exchange' (bucketshop) that offered leveraged trading was shutdown. I wonder if the rise in price had more to do with the inability for people to keep shorting BTC on leverage than it did because of a looming reward adjustment.

Braino

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Quote from: SpanishSoldier on April 10, 2015, 05:17:31 PM

Quote from: Braino on April 10, 2015, 04:59:50 PM

Bitcoin is inflationary, it increases in value by design. The halving is part of the design.

Maybe try reading and learning about something before posting questions that make no sense.

Asset/commodity/currency that increases in value over time, is called Deflationary and it is said that bitcoin is deflationary. OP is a long timer and knows all these basic things.

Mistyped. Deflationary was what I was referring to obviously. Thanks for the correction

SpanishSoldier

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Quote from: Braino on April 10, 2015, 04:59:50 PM

Bitcoin is inflationary, it increases in value by design. The halving is part of the design.

Maybe try reading and learning about something before posting questions that make no sense.

Asset/commodity/currency that increases in value over time, is called Deflationary and it is said that bitcoin is deflationary. OP is a long timer and knows all these basic things.

Braino

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Bitcoin is inflationary, it increases in value by design. The halving is part of the design.

Maybe try reading and learning about something before posting questions that make no sense.

damiano

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103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Price will increase or difficulty will adapt, that easy.

It would take quite a while for difficulty to adapt

jonald_fyookball

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Quote from: DannyHamilton on April 10, 2015, 03:52:32 PM

Those people are fools. It might increase in value, it might decrease in value, it might stay the same. There are far too many influences on the exchange rate to assume that just because the mining subsidy will be cut in half the exchange rate will rise.

Some truth to this, yet everything can be boiled down to two things: Supply and Demand.
We cannot predict the demand, but we know that the halving is cutting the supply of new coins
in half, and that's a big part of the equation.

Amph

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Quote from: SpanishSoldier on April 10, 2015, 04:12:14 PM

As usual an awesome reply by Danny. But I contradict over a point and have a Q...

Quote from: DannyHamilton on April 10, 2015, 03:52:32 PM

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out,

Yes.

No. Because mining fees may rise as well as miners may start including more Tx in a block to cover their expense.

Quote from: DannyHamilton on April 10, 2015, 03:52:32 PM

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

It's unpredictable, literally. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either lying to you or doesn't know better.

Of course, we have had a halving in the past and we seem to have survived it. Perhaps we will again.

When we have had a halving in the past, did we experience a price rise ?

chart show x2 in price

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/market-price?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

november 28 2012 the halving, it show about 11-12 dollars, when before that date it was 4-6

SpanishSoldier

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As usual an awesome reply by Danny. But I contradict over a point and have a Q...

Quote from: DannyHamilton on April 10, 2015, 03:52:32 PM

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out,

Yes.

No. Because mining fees may rise as well as miners may start including more Tx in a block to cover their expense.

Quote from: DannyHamilton on April 10, 2015, 03:52:32 PM

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

It's unpredictable, literally. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either lying to you or doesn't know better.

Of course, we have had a halving in the past and we seem to have survived it. Perhaps we will again.

When we have had a halving in the past, did we experience a price rise ?

DannyHamilton

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Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value.

Those people are fools. It might increase in value, it might decrease in value, it might stay the same. There are far too many influences on the exchange rate to assume that just because the mining subsidy will be cut in half the exchange rate will rise.

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far.

Not much of a "guarantee" then, is it? Perhaps you should put a bit more effort into filtering who you accept advice and information from. There are a lot of fools on the internet that will say or believe just about anything.

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out,

Yes.

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game

Perhaps. But if so, then the difficulty will drop and it will become profitable again.

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

and basically slow the network?

Perhaps for a short while, but if the average time between blocks is greater than 10 minutes, then the mining difficulty will be reduced every 2016 blocks until the average time returns to 10 minutes.

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply.

Then you don't understand it. It's the interaction between supply AND demand that influence price.

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

And if someone wants a BTC and the cheapest one available is $200, it doesn't matter how many people are willing to pay less.

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

It's unpredictable, literally. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either lying to you or doesn't know better.

Of course, we have had a halving in the past and we seem to have survived it. Perhaps we will again.

Bit_Happy

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A Great Time to Start Something!

Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value. There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far. If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out, make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game and basically slow the network? I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply. If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

just a shower thought, what's your take? and please, limit your "BTC CAN NEVAR DIE and you sir are a cock!" statements to provable truths, not opinionated speculation please. BTC could die and very well might. I hope not, but that isn't the point of this thread.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

The network hashing power in insanely high compared to (for example) 2 or 3 years ago. We could lose half the miners and still have an extremely secure network, so Bitcoin is far from dead/dying/troubled, etc.

dothebeats

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Quote from: gogxmagog on April 10, 2015, 02:58:57 PM

I was just thinking this morning, about the reward halving upcoming sometime 2016. Most ppl here are pretty assured that when the halving happens it will guarantee that BTC will increase in value. There have been plenty of guarantees over the last year or so and none have panned out so far. If BTC remains at its current performance level, wouldn't the halving merely drive any miners operating at a thin margin out, make mining not profitable enough for new miners to get in the game and basically slow the network? I understand supply and demand, but demand drives that, not necessarily supply. If no one wants a 200$ btc, it doesn't matter how many there are or how hard they are to mine?

just a shower thought, what's your take? and please, limit your "BTC CAN NEVAR DIE and you sir are a cock!" statements to provable truths, not opinionated speculation please. BTC could die and very well might. I hope not, but that isn't the point of this thread.

What do you think will really happen when the halving comes? anyone thought through any scenarios?

Keep also in mind that companies have invested tons of their resources solely for mining bitcoin. It may be true that the miners that do not have the specialized hardware to profit will leave the mining scene, but still we can't deny the fact that the majority of the hashing power of the bitcoin network are distributed to large mining companies. Also, there had been a lot of money that has been invested in btc lately. This might reflect in the future, making bitcoins a valued asset by many people and large companies as well. With it, mining could be profitable--at least for those who have the equipment. Bitcoin would sure end if all the miners shut down their hardware, but I highly doubt that it is possible, as there are still people who sees mining as a profitable business.

lophie

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Okay. In my opinion,

Take the average number of bitcoin bought in a day for the period of two weeks against. Assume 50% has nothing to do with miners. Then it is easy to assume an increase of at least 10-20%.

RodeoX

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The revolution will be monetized!

It's halved before and did not die. Although a lot of people said it would. But then again some always say that.

spazzdla

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If the reward is an incentive and the only reason to mine bitcoin, bitcoin WILL fail no questoins asked.

Bitcoin never should of went below like 1 milibit payout if this is the case.

I mine to secure the network. MINERS AT ARMS.

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