Topic: 2017 Crash DejaVu? (Read 711 times)

They aren't indicators for market's price, they are indicators for general market state - they show how much activity from users is happening at the given time. There's no denying that they correlate with big price movements caused by big masses of people.

You are wrong about Trump's tweets - they didn't cause any reaction from Google trends, in fact the latest spike happened in the end of June, which is exactly the time when Bitcoin surged. Google trends is a lagging indicator, but still it can provide us some insight to what's happening with the market.

Spamming can't cause as much transactions as organic use, and most of the spam happens at lower brackets, which has little effect on fees. Fees signal that people actively move coins in, out and between exchanges.

There wasn't any 2017 crash.There were some price corrections but the bitcoin price was going constantly up during the entire 2017.Do you mean the 2018 bear trend?
We can't analyse the bitcoin price based only on the 2 month candlesticks movements.
Price patterns that happened in the past won't happen again.This is a well known rule.

both Google trends and fees are terrible indicators to use for market price.
for example right now Google trend is most probably higher due to the fact that news suddenly got flooded with articles about bitcoin and Trump tweet.
the fees are also going higher more often these days mainly because of the altcoins that have been spamming bitcoin network to mine their shitcoin (like Veriblock).

and neither one of these have anything to do with price and its rising although price is rising and we are in the beginning of the next bubble that will be shaped in about a year.

With most of those metrics, it looks like the beginning of a bubble now. Google Trends looks an awful lot like the May-October 2017 period before it went parabolic. Fees have been trending upwards since the beginning of the year too. I guess we got Trump tweeting about Bitcoin, but yeah, certainly not the everyday hype coverage of late 2017.

I don't believe this as I'd repeat the same thing I told in earlier times - the volume during the 2017-18 was so low that the manipulation was a game to market-SHakers but after it got injected the leverage thing, I see the volume that's needed to shake the markets now is a lot more (almost 3x) from what it used to be. Asserting to the fact that you're saying, I think chances are very less of BTC coming back to lower levels as I believe it has already made its low for this year and doesn't need to go any further down as the pattern did justice to those who were waiting for another opportunity to buy back. The dissent about the price going up or not is actually becoming questionable with each day being cut off and this won't come to an end, so let's see what the time has to tell!

The last ATH and the crash that followed had many other, non-chart signs - the fees were high due to a huge network activity, as people were moving their coins in and out of exchanges, Bitcoin reached ATH on Google trends, the media all over the world were talking about Bitcoin, even on national television. There's nothing like that right now, so it's not the top of another bubble yet. Maybe it is a fake rally (very low chance), but most likely the crash from $14,000 is just a correction on a road to much higher prices.

There was no crash in 2017 and last 2 months are not similar to me as end of 2017. November 2017 was crazy and hype around bitcoin was same as will be next year when Bitcoin will be over $100k.

Are you serious? Bitcoin was around 900 dollars that same year, then it went as high as 1-3 thousand dollar range during summer and early september, it went as high as 20 thousand dollars peak during december. You think bitcoin going from 3.4k-4.2k range to 10k is "similar to 2017 crash"? How can someone be that stupid? I mean I am sorry but if you think bitcoin going over x20 in couple months is quite similar to bitcoin going x2-3 in couple months then you are going to lose a lot of money in bitcoin world and you should try to stop yourself from investing into it.

Spend your time on something else, you are wasting it on bitcoin, it is obvious you will never understand trading so why not spend it on something that would be useful for you, I would suggest learning how to play a musical instrument, that seems to relax people.

This is contradictory.

You are saying that there are no percentages in terms of how far the price swings (duh, if we could match up perfectly the market with this graph, why would people even attempt to conduct TA and analyze fundamentals? They could just refer to this graph all the time), yet you're saying that the price movements that we've seen are nowhere near what the graph suggests?

You mention that the uptrend was "far more pronounced". I disagree with this as well, since the markets merely recovered above $10k. Coupled with the fact that the halving, which usually sends the real bullish signal towards the market is still quite some time away, I think it is safe to say that we're still in the smart money/institutional interest phase.

I think the bulls actually like these selloffs because it makes a further increase easier. It also helps making people more bearish in general and therefore open shorts because they expect the price to tank. After that it's squeeze time.

It's not healthy when the price goes up in a parabolic manner, regardless of how strong the bulls are-- all it takes is the momentum to shift for the bears to start unloading the coins they firmly held on the way up.

The more we see large holders unload right now, the less selling bulls have to eat through on the way up to a new yearly high. The bears selling will eventually buy back at higher levels to not lose out once again, which means more buying pressure.

People are worrying too much instead on utilizing those price movements.Making some % profits on a short or days time isnt bad if you do
able to get in on the right time.Nothing surprising if we hit 4 digits then after an hour we recovered with 5 digits.I dont know why people keep
speculating on crashes when they do saw a drop? 

And just like that in just one day Bitcoin rise from 9,000$ to 10,600$. It only shows that the bulls won't go down without a fight. I have observed the volume from the short time frame charts and it's still bullish. However will still not in the clear yet, Bitcoin needs to prove that it can still go up back above 11,000$ to show that we haven't trigger the bear market prematurely. It may have stop the sell offs happening but we still need BTC to continue this up trend just to be sure we are out of it.

I was still happy with the $9,500 (if we look at where we come from...) We're maybe 'safe' from a 2017-2018 crash, It didn't look like a crash after all. The value has been able to recover $1k the last 24h, would be nice if it can do it 2 days again...  Ups and Downs with $1,000 during the same days need to become a habit again.

Bingo. Shaking my head at all these people immediately assuming we've entered a long term bear market. Just look at the numbers. This drop is 100% typical compared to the 2016/2017 bull market.


It's also because of the emotion/psychology tied to this insane volatility. The BTC market experienced this kind of volatility (larger really) before the days of Bitmex. When investors are spot holding from the $13,000s and price is crashing into $10K and beyond, there's sure to be spot holders panicking as well.

your "deja vu" is off by 2 years and about $9000.
what this current price and charts look like is 2015 not 2017. and the trend looks exactly like what we had at that time when price first started recovering from the absolute bottom at $150 and has been rising for a couple of months before it had a hiccup like what we are witnessing these days. a hiccup that is going to lull some of the bears to get out of their cave and wake up just to lose money before the reversal continues on its way upwards.

I am a bull trader and I have been predicting on bullish trend so far and also like to make comments on bullish trend than the bearish market but this your candlestick formation actually bring out the fat. Bitcoin conveniently crosses 50 MA yesterday on a daily chart comfortably and that is a sign that the bull is losing momentum and buyers are not ready to buy at the current pricing. If bitcoin break below $9000? Then we should be ready to stay below $8000 from now till the end of August as the trend reversal may happen by October to December as it has happened every bull years.

In 2017 we had 30-40% pullbacks that were around 4-5 weeks or so. And it eventually engulfed those drops and hit a new ATH shortly after.

The reason why the pullbacks are so severe is mostly due to over-leverged longs. Basically a few days ago when we were at $13000 there was over $1.1 billion in open interest and today its only $700, so its a crazy amount of longs which were liquidated that lead to this severe drop which happened so quickly.

It looks like the $9200 area held, so see if we can test the $10000 area and close above it.

Most of the crypto holders are now afraid and most probably some of them are might be in panic selling their assest now specially those who experienced the great Bitcoin crash on Dec 2017 in which many crypto enthusiast did suffered and lost their investments. Hopefully that this is not Dejavu as Bitcoin market must need to be bullish again first before become bearish once again.

the first one is correct. and i have even mentioned it on many occasions as the reason for a bunch of price drops that we had in the past. but that is not what @Slowdeath was saying. he was saying people are selling altcoins and buying bitcoin which is why bitcoin price is staying up and not dropping. what you are explaining is exit of money from altcoins to fiat through bitcoin which causes bitcoin price drop.

the second one is valid but i don't think the volume is that high to affect bitcoin price considering ATL/USD is not that popular and doesn't have high enough volumes on its own and arbitrage volume is not that high either. there is also the argument about whether ALT/USD drops first or ALT/BTC drops first, and again considering most trades are done in ALT/BTC i'd assume it would be the first to dump and the ALT/USD to follow in which case it can cause bitcoin price rise in it does anything!

People have been using that graph since 2017 in any way it fits them. The first line until the "bear trap" looks nothing like what we had these months, the uptrend was far more pronounced. That graph also doesnt mention any kind of % and its really useless when it comes to predicting price movements.

Slippage: Since ALT/USD markets are so thin (and lots of coins don't even have fiat markets) it's often better to sell to ALT/BTC then BTC/USD.

Arbitrage: When the ALT/USD pairs get dumped, it can create arbitrage gaps between ALT/USD and [ALT/BTC-->BTC/USD]. Arbitrage bots use USD to buy the ALT, dump for BTC, then they dump the BTC for USD.

Both of these activities directly affect the BTC/USD market. So there is an effect.

first of all this "crash" you are talking about wasn't in 2017, it was in 2018. secondly nothing about it is similar. in 2017 we were in a big bubble that was the product of 2000% rise over the course of a year that was the follow up of all the rises that came before in 2016 and 2015 so that "bubble" was the final result of a 3 year bull run of 13233% rise. the follow up was the bubble burst, correction and panic that created a year long bear market reducing the price up to 85%.

right now, in comparison, we are in the recovery stage of that year long drop getting back part of the huge value that was lost mot of it for no reason. there is nothing similar here. if you zoom back and look at how previous peak that you think is similar to this happened you can see that it is a constant rise with your current time settings whereas this peak is a reversal that makes the chart look like a V.

here is what you think is similar (taken from this topic):


if you want to see something really similar then look at the same situations that we had in the past:
this is when we were reversing from the bottom of last HUGE dip after the previous major bubble in 2015. even the size of the rise (~4x) is similar!



people don't sell their altcoins to fiat then buy bitcoin with fiat to cause a price rise. people simply dump their altcoins for bitcoin directly and that never has any effect on bitcoin price in fiat terms. so the reverse meaning buying altcoins with bitcoin can not affect bitcoin price either.
it is not even the same market! it is BTC/ALT instead of being BTC/USD

I also remain bullish although we've seen some dip in the last 24 hours and moving down from as high as $13,800 last month. And I wouldn't say it's Deja Vu, I'm sure everyone knows that the market is very unpredictable. There might be some negatives news that really change the sentiments, but being bullish, it won't last that long. Everyone needs just to settle down and not panic.

Doesn't look like it to me at all.

I don't think that the bull market has even entered the major stages of bullishness, fear of missing out, and euphoria yet. Prices have rose a crap ton over the last 3-4 months, yes, but nowhere to the scale of 2017, or what I'd expect to be the peak of the market.

If you look at this chart, I think that the more likely scenario is that we're currently in the first bear trap.



Markets will consolidate at a lower price before testing the $10k once again. I remain bullish for the long run despite people's concerns about Libra, because ultimately that has nothing to do with bitcoin's fundamentals.

that's sort of my point.

if you zoom out, we have been in a $4500 range for almost a month. a week ago we were at the top of the range, now we're at the bottom. as expected, bears are already lining up for $5k and $6k. but how realistic is that?

i think people underestimate what it means (% wise) to fall another $3000-4000 from here. a 57% crash to $6k is straight up bear market behavior. nothing like that ever happened during the 2015-17 bull market, not even once. (and not even close)

Building up a higher price floor is extremely bullish long term speaking. The short term action might not be from the general point of view.

People just need to discard the few hours that we've been hovering over the $13,000 level. Current price action might be an early indicator that the bull market is over, but there is nothing that you can do about it other than to adjust to the changed market dynamics. The trend is your friend until it no longer is, and the friendship is weakening day by day. The bounce from sub $10,000 to just over $11,000 was a poor show.

We need a bit more price action, but it seems that we are forming a large decending triangle.

You got to love this market. One week ago we were all bullish and now it's going the other way.

sub-$7500 would be the first lower low on the weekly charts. so surely bulls do not want to see that.

dropping nearly 60% isn't bullish, period. bitcoin doesn't do that during bull markets. these targets far surpass any expectations based on history. the only exceptions were essentially flash crashes in august 2012 and april 2013. we don't have the same illiquid conditions as back then and we are weeks into this correction, so that seems doubtful.

a drop like that could mean we're actually in a bear market. and going sub-$3k after an epic 6 month bull trap pretty much guarantees we're going much deeper, likely below the 2013 ATH. that would threaten to break the entire historic bull trend since 2010.

instead, i think the "rebuy at $6k" idea willy woo and others are pushing is just a pipe dream.

Gravity is doing its work. It just isn't healthy to go up the way we did if we don't build up support zones.

Even if we end up touching $6000-$8000 that's still great considering the fact that we put in a higher low. Going from the $3000 bottom to building a new price floor above $6000 is actually very bullish. It might not feel like that for most people looking at how the price went down hard from $13,800 to these levels, but this stimulates investors to cash out profits out of fear.

There just isn't a way around it, the weekly scale looks bearish. Adjust to the changed market dynamics or risk more disappointment.

the first crash candle is a 48% drop, the second is 29%. that's the first indication that these are two very different situations.

these current monthly candles look a lot more like jun-aug 2016 than the 2017 top. in other words, this is probably a correction and not the start of a bear market.

Bitcoin rarely drops more than ~40% in a bull market and looking at the monthly chart, this is a bull market. I expect that to be the lower bound for this correction. I doubt we'll see below the low $8,000s. I'm not sure we'll get that far either.

Exactly. People's main reason to be here is still speculation related-- buying what goes up and selling what goes down is part of every market. The sentiment is just as volatile as the price is.

I personally don't think we'll see the bullish trend come to an end unless we see two consecutive bearish closes on the monthly time frame. Currently everything is still looking good and this correction a healthy pullback.

I won't say this is a dip to buy into because we might go a bit lower, but these prices are becoming more interesting for those who dollar cost average once or twice a month. Lower price means more satoshis for your fiat.

Someone pointed this out quicker than me, and yeah if you like, this is just like 2017, I remember it all too well, almost was daily transfixed by the price movements... it was my first experience with a parabolic move, and had only a year ago to that seen struggles to hit 4-digit valuation.

That's not to say we're copying the move now. I still think it's too soon. But when has Bitcoin ever been rational right?

I believe that unfortunately the main reason why the price is falling a lot is because of this:

US Senators Grill Facebook on Privacy, Trust Issues in Libra Hearing

Libra Vs. US Congress: All There Is to Know Ahead of Hearings

Facebook Stresses Libra’s Compliance With FinCEN at Senate Hearing

and if the price are resisting a collapse should probably be because many people are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin. Many people buy bitcoin because they think that with Libra entry, the price of bitcoin will go up a lot, and how libra is facing governments, those people who bought bitcoin thinking that Libra will be a great success and will cause bitcoin to increase a lot should be panic and are selling. I really wanted to believe that people are not buying bitcoin because of Libra, but unfortunately looking at the latest news, it is clear that, the reason of the price has increased a lot is because of Libra. this reminds me in 2017 when people thought that with the entry of the FUTURES would enter many institutional investors, but instead, governments began to make pressure and the price fell a lot. history is repeating itself in a different way

It would be comparable if we crashed to $7K in the next couple weeks and didn't recover. This time we haven't nearly retraced last month's candle so I wouldn't make the comparison.

Wait for the candle to close. We're only half way through the month. There's still lots of time for shenanigans.

As long as people insist on using bitcoin as an investment vehicle we should see epic crashes.  I would expect to see at least a 50% drop when crashing. 70 -90% being epic. There is no end in sight for this.

We had similar patterns from september 2015 and all the way to november 2017. 50 to 70 days cycles between lows. And 20-35% price decline from the tops within the cycles.

Similar the candlesticks are it doesn't still tell the same story as before, just by looking at the chart you have provided it shows that they are in fact on a different scenario. Look at the volume we have now compared in the past. It shows that the volume even though we are at a lower bullish price shows that it's greater compared to the December bull run. Greater volume on means a greater participation in the market, even if we correct to a lower price now and enter into a bear market yet again it will be shorter compared to what we have last time.

We ALL are afraid to go back to a crypto market that sleeps for months, like 2018 

But I don't think this is the time, we are growing and all people are optimistic about BTC, we was at 3k level not a long time ago...

Yep, all that is good to keep in mind at a time like this.  I also keep remembering how long bitcoin was stuck at around $3500--and a couple years before that, it could barely get past $400.  That's the perspective I like to keep, and I'm not going to react to what amounts to a normal price drop for bitcoin.  It's barely below $10k right now, and that's just fine with me.

Corrections like this are healthy and to be expected, especially when something has shot up as fast as bitcoin did recently.  It's just what happens; nothing to see here, folks.

Hell yes it does.  I just think bitcoin shot up too high, too fast and that kind of gain isn't sustainable without some sort of dip.  The thing with bitcoin is that its dips are pretty dramatic.

Yeah but going from ~$3k to $14k seems like a bull run already, no?

Back in 2017, around November, there was a massive drop from 7700 to 5760 or so (25% decrease), you know what happened two weeks later? Price went up to 11300. From 11k it went down to 4-digits again, especifically 9300 (18% decrease), and what happened next? We touched 16k. We saw similar behaviour all the way up until we touched the last ATH.

So, these massive price swings are common in a bull run. Right now, I don't expect a massive crash, quite the opposite, i'm expecting the price to go above the 13k barrier in the upcoming weeks. In the event that the price actually continues to go down from here, fine by me, cheap is always good.

Jesus Christ, I hope not, We were just starting to see the optimism growing. I don't want to go back to a crypto market that sleeps for months. It's like to go back to the Middle Ages.

I don't know what the fuck happened today, but we got a good slap in the face. A $1500 slap actually...
Fuck, it's always easier to crash than to pump

Is it me or are the 2 last monthly candlesticks looking eerily similar? Similar uptrends before as well. Could we experience a huge crash like in 2017 again? At least the RSI is not similar but still