Hope for the best, Expect the worst | Bitcointalksearch.org

exstasie

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Quote from: 1Referee on August 28, 2019, 03:07:36 PM

Quote from: mikeywith on August 28, 2019, 02:58:29 PM

When would I worry ?

a weekly candle close below the 20SMA opens the door for a few bad scenarios including 6k and another 3-5 months of side-ways bearish like market, aside from that happening, everything else points to 20k pretty soon.

I personally don't consider $6000 to be that much of a bad scenario. If you asked people before we got this run when they thought the price would finally hit $6000, they would place their bets at before the end of the year. I honestly thought the same about the price. Everything above $6000 would be a bonus and so far we have been generously rewarded.

It wouldn't be bad per se, but it would indicate a marked difference from the 2016-2017 bull market. After the initial breakout in late 2015, price never closed below the 20-week MA until the 2017 top. It would definitely throw into question the idea that we're in a new bull market.

That said, there were two weekly closes below the 20-MA in June/July 2013, and we still bubbled the following November.

1Referee

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Quote from: mikeywith on August 28, 2019, 02:58:29 PM

When would I worry ?

a weekly candle close below the 20SMA opens the door for a few bad scenarios including 6k and another 3-5 months of side-ways bearish like market, aside from that happening, everything else points to 20k pretty soon.

I personally don't consider $6000 to be that much of a bad scenario. If you asked people before we got this run when they thought the price would finally hit $6000, they would place their bets at before the end of the year. I honestly thought the same about the price. Everything above $6000 would be a bonus and so far we have been generously rewarded.

I'm curious to see how the major levels on the way down will provide support with how they didn't form resistance on the way up. We broke through $6000 as if it hasn't provided any serious support before.

My realistic bearish scenario is $7000-$7500 and short term speaking realistic bullish scenario $11,500. We've had a few taps too many with the bottom of the descending triangle (which is currently providing support).

mikeywith

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I am getting excited as we approach the 20SMA on the weekly, I know many people are worried about this little drop, but technically there is really nothing to worry about as long as we don't close between the 20SMA which is now at 9072$ as shown in the image below.

Depending on how you trade / accumulate, current levels do look like good entries for the long run, keeping in mind that a wick through the 20SMA is very possible, so I am placing more buying positions all the way down to 8200$ in an attempt to get a good average entry price for my other entries.

When would I worry ?

a weekly candle close below the 20SMA opens the door for a few bad scenarios including 6k and another 3-5 months of side-ways bearish like market, aside from that happening, everything else points to 20k pretty soon.

mikeywith

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Thought i'd drop this update since people are starting to panic after the recent sell-off, looking at the weekly time frame as I usually do

We can see the price is still trading above the 20SMA (orange) which I have talked about it's importance in the OP, and how breaking the 5 SMA usually leads to a drop to the 20SMA, and so far we seem to doing just that.

Keep in mind that the 20SMA is currently at 8594$ as appose of 7200$ on the day I posted the analysis, we are a few days away from the weekly close and I do expect the 20SMA will be at around 8800$-8900$ so the chances of visiting that level is still in play, However !

the way the chart looks now, it seems like the bears are losing control and there is not enough selling pressure that would take us to below 9000$ again, and I do think price will still be in a sideways movement where 9k will be the bottom and 12k will be top for the next couple weeks.

TL;DR : there is nothing to worry about, we are still above the 20SMA, trend is still bullish , it makes more sense to accumulate than to sell at these ranges.

mikeywith

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Quote from: exstasie on July 27, 2019, 05:34:50 AM

[Daily open shenanigans it is! Thanks goodness for tight stops eh? :

You got it right , and yes tight SL saved the day, when i trade aggressively i always have a very tight SL so that when price slaps me on the face it does not knock me off.

Quote

waterfall!

Agreed, but that wouldn't happen right away, however overall i am glad we having this healthy correction after the parabolic run we had from 4k, still keeping an eye on the 20sma.

exstasie

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Quote from: mikeywith on July 26, 2019, 09:37:07 PM

Quote from: exstasie on July 26, 2019, 08:20:55 PM

Hmm, I'm not sure about this move yet. It could be just be daily open shenanigans. We need to break and hold above the $10,200 level to establish a higher high. The 4-hour close might be informative considering these other short-lived pumps on the way down:

The only difference about this pump is that it started from a higher low, unlike all the other pumps we recently had.

I have already opened a small long position , SL will be real tight, I expect this 1H candle to form a flag pole , a few hours of tiny little descending candles, a bull-flag followed by a small rally to 11k then ( bull-trap ) and finally a sell-off to break 9.5k support.

Daily open shenanigans it is! Thanks goodness for tight stops eh? This is why I'm conservative about counter trending in a strong downtrend like this. What an epic troll, already lower lows now:

Somebody has been heavily accumulating this range. Retesting the $9K level and running their stops now could lead to a real waterfall!

mikeywith

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Quote from: exstasie on July 26, 2019, 08:20:55 PM

The 4-hour close might be informative considering these other short-lived pumps on the way down:

The only difference about this pump is that it started from a higher low, unlike all the other pumps we recently had.

I have already opened a small long position , SL will be real tight, I expect this 1H candle to form a flag pole , a few hours of tiny little descending candles, a bull-flag followed by a small rally to 11k then ( bull-trap ) and finally a sell-off to break 9.5k support.

exstasie

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Quote from: mikeywith on July 26, 2019, 07:33:03 PM

We are already breaking the triangle to the upside, i am kind of aggressive when dealing with such break outs, so I am not going to wait for the 4H candle to close, I am watching 10150$ which is the prev local resistance on this time frame, if this exact hourly candle manages to break that level I will jump in , my TP however is not as far as yours, 10700$ - 11000$ will be it for me.

Hmm, I'm not sure about this move yet. It could be just be daily open shenanigans. We need to break and hold above the $10,200 level to establish a higher high. The 4-hour close might be informative considering these other short-lived pumps on the way down:

mikeywith

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Quote from: STT on July 26, 2019, 06:13:30 PM

but if it breaks past 10,223 then I'll take it that triangle broke out bullish and upwards there after.

We are already breaking the triangle to the upside, i am kind of aggressive when dealing with such break outs, so I am not going to wait for the 4H candle to close, I am watching 10150$ which is the prev local resistance on this time frame, if this exact hourly candle manages to break that level I will jump in , my TP however is not as far as yours, 10700$ - 11000$ will be it for me.

I am not taking any large positions on USD pairs since BTC dominance is at major resistance, it's much more profitable to trade Alt/Btc pairs until BTC dominance shifts direction.

to stress more on the last point , 69% all the way down to 62% of dominance is good overall for alt/btc.

STT

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My chart is messy so I wont post but sure I can see a triangle , my natural bias is to see the downtrend there as stronger but if it breaks past 10,223 then I'll take it that triangle broke out bullish and upwards there after. Its only two weeks in size but thats enough for us to be retesting the upper prices again over 11,000 I guess. $11,700 is my target for a breakout upwards, this is the previous daily trend going back months. It can hover and decide direction once again in that area.

exstasie

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Quote from: mikeywith on July 26, 2019, 08:30:17 AM

Are you watching this triangle set-up?

Seems we're close to the apex now. I wonder if we'll get a real triangle breakout or if it'll just keep sideways through the bounds. I guess I'm waiting for a clean break of $9,500 or $10,200 at this point. My bias is still bearish for now but I'm a bit surprised at how hard this range is being defended by bulls.

RealMalatesta

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I think anything under 10k is a good entry point, I know its not going to be that easy to make yourself ready for under 10k because that would mean the price is going down and everyone is afraid of getting into bitcoin when its going down and I know it sounds a lot better to get into bitcoin during a bull run.

However, the reality is that if you try to get in during a bull run you may end up like the guy who bought at 13k and not like the guy who bought during 3k. So, when it goes down as low as 4k and even lower and when people were afraid that it might go under as low as under 2k there was people who bought under 4k and now they doubled and even trippled their money whereas people who were expecting it to go under 2k lost on good profit. Don't let yourself be like them and buy under 10k to sell over 13k to make a good profit.

mikeywith

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Quote from: exstasie on July 24, 2019, 03:34:02 PM

Are you watching this triangle set-up?

The break out to the downside of this triangle on the 4H chart might ignite the down trend momentum to 8k , we made 3 higher lows and 3 lower highs, so a break out to either direction will be a good trade, given the fact this is a down trend chances are higher on the downside.

Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on July 24, 2019, 06:36:44 PM

If we hover at these levels of 8000-10000 over the summer, I am cool with it Cool

That's the bottom of the next run then.

You might want to extend the range a little bit, 2k area for BTC for a whole summer is unlikely.

UnDerDoG81

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If we hover at these levels of 8000-10000 over the summer, I am cool with it Cool

That's the bottom of the next run then.

mikeywith

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Quote from: exstasie on July 24, 2019, 03:34:02 PM

Yes but I wonder where the MA will be when it's finally tested. Something tells me $7,500 is too far.

"too far" is too generous Grin

, i would say it's nearly impossible, because if 20SMA test is going to be around 7500$ then it has to happen this week, that's 2k drop in 3-4 days , I don't see that happening to be honest, next week the 20SMA will be at around 7800$, the week after that probably 8000$ or a bit higher, but no matter what, we are more likely than not going to test it in a few weeks regardless of where it is.

exstasie

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Quote from: mikeywith on July 23, 2019, 09:00:10 PM

Shorting/Longing break-outs depends on your trading style, if you are an aggressive trader you would short right after the break and your SL would be above the 20SMA, being conservative is doing exactly what you suggested.

I'm all about trading breakouts. I just don't consider that a breakout. More of a trend signal.

Quote from: mikeywith on July 23, 2019, 09:00:10 PM

your way is safer and has better R:R ratio , however many times you will miss the trade, since there is no guarantee for price to re-test prev support/resistance, but by all means if one does not trade intra-day and base entries and exists on smaller time frames, then waiting for a re-test would be the better way of doing things.

I think your method is fine for selling at spot, but shorting just seems too risky. My system requires minimum 2.5:1 risk/reward which usually won't be possible in that situation, not after already falling so far.

Quote from: mikeywith on July 23, 2019, 09:00:10 PM

Anyhow the chances of that happening now is very low, i suppose we will test the 20SMA three to four times before this bull market is finally over.

Yes but I wonder where the MA will be when it's finally tested. Something tells me $7,500 is too far.

Ararbermas

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I personally check the bad first to assure how long the progress will last. And in order for me to make a temporary startegy as well. Actually i always check the both side ,but on this situation i believe bad things has a possibility always to happen afterwards due to some factor.. And in fact im not expecting a long bull run on this circumstance since market always collapse. And for me much better to quick selling in my opinion rather than expecting to much progress with bitcoin.

mikeywith

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Quote from: exstasie on July 23, 2019, 07:50:50 PM

Shorting/Longing break-outs depends on your trading style, if you are an aggressive trader you would short right after the break and your SL would be above the 20SMA, being conservative is doing exactly what you suggested.

your way is safer and has better R:R ratio , however many times you will miss the trade, since there is no guarantee for price to re-test prev support/resistance, but by all means if one does not trade intra-day and base entries and exists on smaller time frames, then waiting for a re-test would be the better way of doing things.

Quote

It makes sense to shift from longing mode to shorting mode.

Glad we agree to the main point of my theory here, regardless of how anyone is going to trade the market, it's safe to say that we are in a bear market when that happens.

Anyhow the chances of that happening now is very low, i suppose we will test the 20SMA three to four times before this bull market is finally over.

exstasie

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Quote from: mikeywith on July 23, 2019, 07:17:17 PM

Quote from: exstasie on July 23, 2019, 05:06:14 PM

Agreed, except for shorting below the 20-week MA. Once the trend has reached that far, it's likely to be near a local bottom.

Take the August 2015 crash, for example. By the time the weekly closed below the 20MA, price hit the ultimate bottom less than a week later just 13% lower. You could easily short the bottom that way.

I would prefer to find a local bottom, then short the subsequent bounce to the 20MA, like February/May/July 2018. That way you don't have to hold shorts through such a painful drawdown.

Here:

Yes, you can see in those examples exactly what I'm talking about.

You said it's "safe" to short once we close below the 20-week MA. In February 2018, that meant shorting the February 5th open ~ $8,000 when the market literally bottomed the next day and then bounced to $11,800. Shorting based on a weekly signal one day before the bottom, so you can be immediately stopped out or otherwise eat a 50% drawdown? Bad strategy!

That's why I suggested to use the 20MA breakdown as a signal of a bear market, but not as a short entry. The chart shows clearly that you should not short the breakdown itself, but rather the subsequent bounces to the 20MA. In other words, wait for a local bottom below the 20MA then short the bounce once you see buying exhaustion.

The parallel here: If you're entering shorts in the $7,000s after a 45-50% drop has already occurred, you better not be trading the weekly chart. You better be ready to exit very quickly on lower time frames. Unless you like getting your shorts squeezed for the next several weeks, that is.

Quote from: mikeywith on July 23, 2019, 07:17:17 PM

I am not sure if we are talking about the same 20MA here, the one I am using in this chart is the 20 Simple Moving Average on the weekly chart

Yes, the 20-week MA.

Quote from: mikeywith on July 23, 2019, 07:17:17 PM

and as you can see in the image above, every time we closed below the 20SMA on the weekly the trend shifted from bull to bear, except for what happened in Aug-2015 but that wasn't even a bull market then.

It makes sense to shift from longing mode to shorting mode.

But you make it sound like one should just start shorting when the weekly closes below the 20MA. That's not a good decision. One should wait for a proper short entry with decent risk/reward. That's all I was saying.

mikeywith

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Quote from: exstasie on July 23, 2019, 05:06:14 PM

Agreed, except for shorting below the 20-week MA. Once the trend has reached that far, it's likely to be near a local bottom.

Here:

I am not sure if we are talking about the same 20MA here, the one I am using in this chart is the 20 Simple Moving Average on the weekly chart, and as you can see in the image above, every time we closed below the 20SMA on the weekly the trend shifted from bull to bear, except for what happened in Aug-2015 but that wasn't even a bull market then.

so in other words, I give a lot of thoughts when comes to major SMAs like the 20SMA , specially on time frames like the weekly and the monthly, so I have to disagree with finding local bottom below the 20SMA, because if that happens ( unlikely) then we will enter a bear market for a good period of time, the bottom should be at around the 20SMA or slightly above it.

Topic: Hope for the best, Expect the worst (Read 893 times)