bitcoin still has a very binary future---it's probably going to be worth quite a lot (millions of $$) if mass adoption happens, or otherwise very very little (~$0)
That made sense as a prudent statement in 2008 (when Satoshi said it), I'm not convinced it makes sense now. The tech has demonstrated how resilient it is, and how attractive that is. It's one big positive feedback loop, and it's difficult to see how that can be disrupted now.
According to IMF economist Antoine Bouveret and assistant director Vikram Haksar, virtual coins do not fulfill basic functions of money, such as being a store of value, means of exchange, and unit of account.
give it 10-20 more years.
No need. Bitcoin is objectively storing value, being exchanged in trade, and used as a unit of account today.
It's unstable in all those respects. All currencies are unstable in all those respects.
- Bitcoin is less stable, but increasing in value; fiat currencies are more stable, but decreasing in value
- Trade involving Bitcoin is increasing; trade involving fiat is declining (or at best static)
- The number of people using Bitcoin to account for their wealth is increasing; price inflation in fiat denominated goods/services/assets implies that using fiat to account for wealth is in decline
It's difficult to see how Bitcoin's momentum can be stopped. The design was very carefully conceived precisely to make it difficult to stop, and attractive to users.