[2019 - 11- 25] The 4 Possible Bitcoin Scenarios In The Long Run

malevolent

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Quote from: squatter on November 27, 2019, 04:27:53 PM

Sure, but that's not the popular perception. People don't associate rising cost of living with cash vs. plastic/mobile. They may bitch about the price of rent and food increasing but they certainly aren't complaining about going cashless. They want to go cashless. Merchants and black marketers love cash but mainstream consumers have us all by the balls in that regard.

I don't foresee anyone putting up much of a fight against the incoming cash restrictions we're seeing around the world.

Ask anyone who makes or supplements their income with under the table work (or anyone who doesn't declare their entire income) what are their thoughts on cashlessness. They are a non-insignificant group of voters.

Quote from: gentlemand on November 26, 2019, 07:10:53 PM

I've heard a few people voice the dystopian possibilities and I don't think they had much or any awareness of crypto.

People or their families who were oppressed by far-right or far-left regimes whose work was easier thanks to public or state-owned records will also often be skeptical of going full cashless. Journalists (especially investigative ones) and people involved in politics should too be wary.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: EdmonLeung on November 24, 2019, 07:44:57 PM

Read more at DoggBitCoin

The first three scenarios are really just the one same "moon" scenario described in different words. It would be more interesting if they explored more possibilities, like Bitcoin breaking its crazy cycles and switching to slow but predictable growth, or even Bitcoin relatively stabilizing at some point not far from where we are. IMO, both moon and doom aren't as likely as they were before - today's uncertainty is not the uncertainty of the early days.

Carlton Banks

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Quote from: richardsNY on November 28, 2019, 03:52:41 PM

What is your take on the current bearish reversal? Have any bearish reversals ever made you uncomfortable or you don't care because you rely on the long term potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 and possibly higher?

you get more indifferent after experiencing a dozen of these events. The time when $250 capitulated at $70, phew, I was thinking "some super bad news could really squash the whole thing", but fortunately it turned around both very assertively and fast.

Nowadays, any movement is pretty irrelevant to me. I spend BTC when I need stuff, not when economics (or economists) suggests I should (in your face, Gresham!) The more I learn about how Bitcoin's fundamentals hold it together (and future plans to strengthen it), the less concerned I am about a black swan situation wiping it out. Which is obviously always possible, but it'll be far easier to put the whole thing down to experience in that event. I'll be proud and lucky to have been a part of a great part of history if so, I mean think on that, this is a genuinely historic phenomenon that'll actually appear in cultural dissemination years from now, whether it succeeds long term or not. And it's been said from very early on, if Bitcoin fails, cryptocurrency will still succeed, you can definitely "bank" on that

richardsNY

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Quote from: Carlton Banks on November 27, 2019, 04:26:39 PM

anything could happen though, including a great big nothingburger

What is your take on the current bearish reversal? Have any bearish reversals ever made you uncomfortable or you don't care because you rely on the long term potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 and possibly higher?

magneto

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Quote

Bitcoin becomes a reserve currency in the world

This scenario is obviously ideal, but I don't think that this is likely given the time constraints. Especially with central banks, they aren't likely to adopt something that is decentralised as their reserve currencies, even though it is a logical thing to do to protect against external financial contagion.

I do think, however, that adoption levels will continue to increase in spite of what regulators seem to have against BTC.

A grassroot movement like this won't just be forgotten or abandoned, because of the sheer amount of people that is backing it, and not just one institution holding it together.

1Referee

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Quote from: gentlemand on November 27, 2019, 07:20:21 AM

I don't really see why anyone's paying much attention to current prices unless they're leveraged to the hilt. It's all a bit of a nothing.

It's largely fear. It sucks for most people to look at their portfolio and see the virtual loss expose their poor timing of entering the market.

I see it happen with people on this forum referring to themselves as long term holder too; during price increases everyone can chill and enjoy the price, but when the market moves against them, they suddenly aren't so sure about their investment or Bitcoin anymore. These are usually the weak hands we are talking about when it comes to people getting shaken out of the market.

Every long term bull loves to buy at much lower levels. These are precious opportunities. Instead of utilizing these opportunities people cry themselves to sleep. Roll Eyes

Carlton Banks

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Quote from: squatter on November 27, 2019, 04:27:53 PM

I don't foresee anyone putting up much of a fight against the incoming cash restrictions we're seeing around the world.

go to independent businesses in Switzerland or Austria. No cards. Cash. Only.

squatter

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STOP SNITCHIN'

Quote from: gentlemand on November 26, 2019, 07:10:53 PM

Quote from: squatter on November 26, 2019, 04:12:03 PM

Of course, but we're talking about two different things now. I was speaking to the bit about cash controls and moving towards cashlessness. People don't seem too worried about that.

Inflation and low interest rates are a whole other can of worms.

Is it not two sides of the same coin? Your money is becoming increasingly controlled and at the same time it's becoming increasingly worthless.

Sure, but that's not the popular perception. People don't associate rising cost of living with cash vs. plastic/mobile. They may bitch about the price of rent and food increasing but they certainly aren't complaining about going cashless. They want to go cashless. Merchants and black marketers love cash but mainstream consumers have us all by the balls in that regard.

I don't foresee anyone putting up much of a fight against the incoming cash restrictions we're seeing around the world.

Carlton Banks

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Quote from: richardsNY on November 27, 2019, 03:19:41 PM

No one in his right mind believes that Bitcoin will reach $250000 in 2020.

then count me in! Grin

peak to peak ($1000 in 2014 to $20,000 in 2017) was a x20 increase last time, 20x $20,000 is a new ATH of $400,000. Which would last about 5 minutes before the new world record is set for biggest ever market correction Cheesy

anything could happen though, including a great big nothingburger

richardsNY

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Quote from: Slow death on November 27, 2019, 04:41:39 AM

it is unbelievable that there are people who say the price will reache $250,000 on 2020, which is absurd.

It's not about the prediction being realistic or unrealistic, but about the people making these predictions to get the media exposure they are after. News portals have a habit of donating exposure to tards like McAfee. No one in his right mind believes that Bitcoin will reach $250000 in 2020.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: Slow death on November 27, 2019, 04:41:39 AM

we are 169 days from halving and the price is more likely to end the year under $ 6000. this can be a presage that next year even after halving the price remains below 10,000 and it is unbelievable that there are people who say the price will reache $250,000 on 2020, which is absurd.

A bit pointless making price predictions but the concept of an enormous move seemed no more or less absurd than the last one or the one before that yet they happened. And price action was indifferent/dead leading up to and around the previous halvings too.

I don't really see why anyone's paying much attention to current prices unless they're leveraged to the hilt. It's all a bit of a nothing.

Slow death

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It's good to be optimistic, but we have to look at the possibility that in future the price is not too high as most people imagine, let's look at the current scenario as a great example:

we are 169 days from halving and the price is more likely to end the year under $ 6000. this can be a presage that next year even after halving the price remains below 10,000 and it is unbelievable that there are people who say the price will reache $250,000 on 2020, which is absurd.

Kakmakr

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As long as there are hardcore hoarders out there, that believe that the Fiat system is on a path of self destruction, then Bitcoin would have a future. We know most Fiat currencies does not last longer than a 100 years, so these people are looking for alternative payment options, when these Fiat currencies fail.

A lot of these currencies has already failed, like the Zimbabwean Dollar and the Argentine Peso (ARS), so they are failing one by one and people are turning to Crypto currencies like Bitcoin to protect their wealth. Roll Eyes

Carlton Banks

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Quote from: gentlemand on November 26, 2019, 07:10:53 PM

Is it not two sides of the same coin? Your money is becoming increasingly controlled and at the same time it's becoming increasingly worthless. If you add the two together it makes for an ugly future.

such a basic equation: the more your money is controlled by someone who's not you, the less it's yours. If money you don't control is anything, worthless is it Cheesy

it's main value is held by whoever's giving you permission to use it (the most extreme case being "you have my permission to give all your money to me" Grin

whose money is that? why ever call it yours?)

the dystopian future world can stop me paying you or you paying me, but all that's doing is guaranteeing the inmates will start their own money system (spoiler alert: yep, we're more or less free-range cattle in tax cults)

gentlemand

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Quote from: squatter on November 26, 2019, 04:12:03 PM

Of course, but we're talking about two different things now. I was speaking to the bit about cash controls and moving towards cashlessness. People don't seem too worried about that.

Inflation and low interest rates are a whole other can of worms.

Is it not two sides of the same coin? Your money is becoming increasingly controlled and at the same time it's becoming increasingly worthless. If you add the two together it makes for an ugly future.

I've heard a few people voice the dystopian possibilities and I don't think they had much or any awareness of crypto.

squatter

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STOP SNITCHIN'

Quote from: gentlemand on November 26, 2019, 03:37:15 PM

Quote from: squatter on November 26, 2019, 02:17:12 PM

People seem pretty comfortable with their online banking apps, Zelle, Venmo, Cash App... even my mother, who's in her 60s. Everyone is willingly going cashless, particularly young people. I'm not sure they're going to question anything until fiat currencies start imploding.

I can't recall anyone who hasn't moaned about the truly pitiful savings options out there or the ever rising costs of living. Day to day convenience has upped but the fundamentals of what they're earning and saving in are shakier than they used to be.

Of course, but we're talking about two different things now. I was speaking to the bit about cash controls and moving towards cashlessness. People don't seem too worried about that.

Inflation and low interest rates are a whole other can of worms.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: squatter on November 26, 2019, 02:17:12 PM

People seem pretty comfortable with their online banking apps, Zelle, Venmo, Cash App... even my mother, who's in her 60s. Everyone is willingly going cashless, particularly young people. I'm not sure they're going to question anything until fiat currencies start imploding.

I can't recall anyone who hasn't moaned about the truly pitiful savings options out there or the ever rising costs of living. Day to day convenience has upped but the fundamentals of what they're earning and saving in are shakier than they used to be.

squatter

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STOP SNITCHIN'

Quote from: gentlemand on November 25, 2019, 02:52:13 PM

When I recall what banking was like only ten years ago it was a lot more logical and a lot less offensive and Orwellian than it is now.

You actually got interest on your savings. Cash was king. There was much less of this AML reporting and zero talk of restricting cash transactions above certain amounts. It's only going one way.

Cashlessness and the spectre of a governmentcoin will be a wake up call to enough people to make them question what's going on. BTC will be waiting for them.

People seem pretty comfortable with their online banking apps, Zelle, Venmo, Cash App... even my mother, who's in her 60s. Everyone is willingly going cashless, particularly young people. I'm not sure they're going to question anything until fiat currencies start imploding.

hugeblack

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I believe that the success of the revolutionary idea (Blockchain technology) "which proved by Bitcoin," will attract everyone to it, from governments to central banks and others, but everyone will try to take advantage of it to achieve his interests.
The cash will soon turn into digital money but it will be centralized and Blockchain may work over it.
If Bitcoin failed or succeeded, it has already proved that it can make a difference.

BitHodler

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Quote from: CryptoBry on November 24, 2019, 10:10:22 PM

In other words, we are now slowly losing the vision for Bitcoin and when only a handful of people are really sticking to the core beliefs and philosophy of Bitcoin then we can have a big problem and right now the symptoms of these problems have already started to surface. Let's just hope that eventually Bitcoin will be as it should be.

Maybe, but that will eventually change when we have another government or global banking fuckup. If banks are doing fairly well, governments in most financially strong countries too, people have no need for safe havens.

We will have to see whether the 'looming' recession really strikes one day, but that might be such a catalyst for people to finally start appreciating what Bitcoin brings to the table. People need to be uncomfortable first to explore new alternatives.

Topic: [2019 - 11- 25] The 4 Possible Bitcoin Scenarios In The Long Run (Read 312 times)