[2019-12-17] Bitcoin’s failing price could be caused by $2B Chinese Ponzi scheme

Carlton Banks

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 17, 2019, 09:41:08 PM

@CryptoBry. It is clearly not speculation anymore. There are new evidences from Chainalysis that support Dovey Wan's hypothesis.

https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/plustoken-scam-bitcoin-price

you mean Chainalysis, the company proven to be acting against the interests of Bitcoin holders and the Bitcoin ethos, that company? Roll Eyes

why should we take their technical analysis as anything more than a part of their wider push for the incumbent financial system to exert more control over cryptocurrencies? They have every incentive to promote the prevention of using cryptocurrencies freely, their business literally is the undermining of capitalism in Bitcoin (i.e. where everyone is enable to behave as an adult that manages their own risk and responsibility)

And I'm slightly taken aback that I'm the first person on this thread to say any of the above.

The whole thing sounds like some level of bullshit to me, how on earth can $2 billion of dumb money really become convinced of a scheme that didn't have any upfront delivery of any known asset? It sounds very unlikely to me, although not impossible of course. And then Chainalysis come along with their Craig Wrong blockchain-based "evidence" act, full of assumptions we're expected to be too stupid to challenge.

1Referee

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Quote from: Swordsoffreedom on December 26, 2019, 05:30:29 AM

What about long term impact? There has to be long term impact of halving and I don't think it can be priced in half a year before.

Of course there is a long term impact. Miners are rewarded fewer coins, which means that there is less that they can dump on you to cover their expenses.

The thing that people have to keep in mind is that a bear market can drag on for such a long period of time, that it may seem that the halving doesn't have much of an impact, so you have to be patient and not get worried if the price doesn't right away go up to whatever level you hope to sell at.

It's a game where the most patient holders are rewarded the most. Impatient 'holders' will get less, or nothing at all if they sell out of frustration.

Swordsoffreedom

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Quote from: buwaytress on December 22, 2019, 01:13:17 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 21, 2019, 01:50:52 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on December 21, 2019, 07:12:22 AM

Has anyone collated info on shitcoin halvings for those coins that have it? Does it have any type of notable effect?

I assume demand and volume swings that much more violently than BTC that those factors overwhelm it.

i've only looked into LTC. the last two times, it had major pumps---against both BTC and USD---leading into the halving. from may-july 2015 and january-april 2019 it strongly outperformed BTC and the rest of the altcoin market.

i think that says something about the halving effect. LTC is one of the most liquid altcoins though. low cap coins may not behave the same way.

If I recall, this was also a coinciding event for Segwit adoption. I believe a lot of people still feel LTC takes some credit for being a guinea pig for potential Bitcoin upgrades, and the successes it had with Segwit, atomic swaps, lightning, coinciding with halving and then with people claiming credit for the upgrades Bitcoin eventually took up after it, all contributed to those pumps.

Personally, even with Bitcoin, halving immediate or short-term impact's already almost negligible... everything is priced in gradually already.

What about long term impact? There has to be long term impact of halving and I don't think it can be priced in half a year before.

buwaytress

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 21, 2019, 01:50:52 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on December 21, 2019, 07:12:22 AM

Has anyone collated info on shitcoin halvings for those coins that have it? Does it have any type of notable effect?

I assume demand and volume swings that much more violently than BTC that those factors overwhelm it.

i've only looked into LTC. the last two times, it had major pumps---against both BTC and USD---leading into the halving. from may-july 2015 and january-april 2019 it strongly outperformed BTC and the rest of the altcoin market.

i think that says something about the halving effect. LTC is one of the most liquid altcoins though. low cap coins may not behave the same way.

If I recall, this was also a coinciding event for Segwit adoption. I believe a lot of people still feel LTC takes some credit for being a guinea pig for potential Bitcoin upgrades, and the successes it had with Segwit, atomic swaps, lightning, coinciding with halving and then with people claiming credit for the upgrades Bitcoin eventually took up after it, all contributed to those pumps.

Personally, even with Bitcoin, halving immediate or short-term impact's already almost negligible... everything is priced in gradually already.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: gentlemand on December 21, 2019, 07:12:22 AM

Has anyone collated info on shitcoin halvings for those coins that have it? Does it have any type of notable effect?

I assume demand and volume swings that much more violently than BTC that those factors overwhelm it.

i've only looked into LTC. the last two times, it had major pumps---against both BTC and USD---leading into the halving. from may-july 2015 and january-april 2019 it strongly outperformed BTC and the rest of the altcoin market.

i think that says something about the halving effect. LTC is one of the most liquid altcoins though. low cap coins may not behave the same way.

gentlemand

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Quote from: malevolent on December 21, 2019, 02:47:03 AM

Litecoin is a speculative shitcoins which almost no one uses, its price started collapsing just after Bitcoin's, and like other shitcoins it also started losing value against BTC.

Has anyone collated info on shitcoin halvings for those coins that have it? Does it have any type of notable effect?

I assume demand and volume swings that much more violently than BTC that those factors overwhelm it.

malevolent

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 20, 2019, 09:19:13 PM

I hope so for all cryptospace. However, my advice would be to learn from litecoin's halving and to prepare for disappointment. It will make acceptance quicker hehehe.

Litecoin is a speculative shitcoin which almost no one uses, its price started collapsing just after Bitcoin's, and like other shitcoins it also started losing value against BTC.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: 1Referee on December 19, 2019, 06:19:29 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 18, 2019, 09:22:00 PM

Also, no one can predict how long the market is to be affected by this. It might be long, it might be short hehehe.

It can't be too long with the block halving approaching quickly. I'm confident that it hasn't been priced in yet, and I'm confident that we'll get the price to start calculating it in a month or two before the actual event. I'm putting my money where my mouth is by doing everything I can to stack up more coins because it could very well be the last ever time we see these levels again.

In terms of the sentiment, it's horrible, and that's actually a good thing because the market tends to move in the opposite direction of the dumb money herd. This doesn't mean that we're completely out of the woods yet, but buying at today's prices is a whole lot more rewarding than fomo'ing into the market at +$10,000 levels.

I can only say thank you for this opportunity. Grin

I hope so for all cryptospace. However, my advice would be to learn from litecoin's halving and to prepare for disappointment. It will make acceptance quicker hehehe.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: pixie85 on December 20, 2019, 03:38:39 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 20, 2019, 01:55:48 PM

Right, I too think that the market will continue do be bearish,

Is it really bearish?

I don't know why so many people still think we're going to go lower than 5000.

because the market has already dropped 54% from the highs and people are worried the carnage will continue. there's no measure by which the downtrend has been broken yet. as they say, the trend is your friend, until it ends.

malevolent

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Quote from: pixie85 on December 20, 2019, 03:38:39 PM

Is it really bearish? We were bearish whole 2018 and are now consolidating. We used to be at 6000 before that manipulated drop to 3000 and then we recovered but overshot. We should have recovered to 8-9 thousand not 14 and that's why we had so much uncertainty. Many people read it wrong like it's another big bull market but it was not and the confusion turned into short term panic. If there was no overshot to 14 thousand we'd be at 7-8 thousand anyway because that's where a steady rise from Novembber 2018 would take us.

I don't know why so many people still think we're going to go lower than 5000.

There's nothing guaranteeing a steady rise. If tens of thousands of bitcoins are still waiting to be sold from this ponzi there's no telling how low we'll go.

pixie85

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 20, 2019, 01:55:48 PM

Right, I too think that the market will continue do be bearish,

Is it really bearish? We were bearish whole 2018 and are now consolidating. We used to be at 6000 before that manipulated drop to 3000 and then we recovered but overshot. We should have recovered to 8-9 thousand not 14 and that's why we had so much uncertainty. Many people read it wrong like it's another big bull market but it was not and the confusion turned into short term panic. If there was no overshot to 14 thousand we'd be at 7-8 thousand anyway because that's where a steady rise from Novembber 2018 would take us.

I don't know why so many people still think we're going to go lower than 5000.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: malevolent on December 19, 2019, 07:34:46 PM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 19, 2019, 12:50:05 PM

Seems like the price has mostly recovered today, so the recent crash was just a panic and manipulation rather than something fundamental - and it would have been really surprising if some Chinese Ponzi could have influenced the price for a longer period of time. The lesson here is as usual - do not let sensational news affect your trades, look at the long term.

Medium-term we may see the price heading further downwards with this new low. And the price only recovered to where it was a week ago. 30 days ago it was $1k higher.

Right, I too think that the market will continue do be bearish, but it's not going to free-fall, and it's probably not going to go down much further than 6k or high 5k. The last bottom was at 3k, so we are currently close to another bottom, if we extrapolate the chart. These ponzi news are just a fluctuation, it doesn't matter much even on medium term.

malevolent

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 19, 2019, 12:50:05 PM

Seems like the price has mostly recovered today, so the recent crash was just a panic and manipulation rather than something fundamental - and it would have been really surprising if some Chinese Ponzi could have influenced the price for a longer period of time. The lesson here is as usual - do not let sensational news affect your trades, look at the long term.

Medium-term we may see the price heading further downwards with this new low. And the price only recovered to where it was a week ago. 30 days ago it was $1k higher.

squatter

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on December 19, 2019, 12:50:05 PM

Seems like the price has mostly recovered today, so the recent crash was just a panic and manipulation rather than something fundamental - and it would have been really surprising if some Chinese Ponzi could have influenced the price for a longer period of time.

It could have a longer term effect if they are still slowly bleeding the supply into the market. It's comparable to the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee selling off similar amounts of bitcoins last year. Even though the bitcoins are sold OTC, most of that supply probably lands on exchanges.

I would consider this fundamental supply and demand, not manipulation. Chinese people were still buying BTC and ETH to put into PlusToken until late June. That demand was driving market prices up. The supply accumulated by the scammers pushed them back down.

hatshepsut93

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Seems like the price has mostly recovered today, so the recent crash was just a panic and manipulation rather than something fundamental - and it would have been really surprising if some Chinese Ponzi could have influenced the price for a longer period of time. The lesson here is as usual - do not let sensational news affect your trades, look at the long term.

darkangel11

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Quote from: gentlemand on December 19, 2019, 07:29:31 AM

Disappointing to see that there are people who still fall for this shit and the sheer volume of it. Guess stupidity and greed is near infinite and eternal. Unfortunate too that one bunch of assholes can potentially influence what should be a global market. Goes to show we have a way to go yet.

I feel the same. There's a bunch of golden rules that always work for identifying investment scams. One of them is that they promise incredible gains unheard of in traditional markets and are always sure of your success. They will offer you a steady 100% a year guaranteed, or even more and people believe them and give them money. The higher the promised gains the higher the probability of it being a scam. People are blind and don't get that 10% a year is something a good trader or investment banker is able to offer. Not 100% or 200%.
Some people are just meant to lose money. You cannot protect them. They will pay the scammers and fight you when you tell them not to do it.

gentlemand

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Disappointing to see that there are people who still fall for this shit and the sheer volume of it. Guess stupidity and greed is near infinite and eternal. Unfortunate too that one bunch of assholes can potentially influence what should be a global market. Goes to show we have a way to go yet.

1Referee

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 18, 2019, 09:22:00 PM

Also, no one can predict how long the market is to be affected by this. It might be long, it might be short hehehe.

It can't be too long with the block halving approaching quickly. I'm confident that it hasn't been priced in yet, and I'm confident that we'll get the price to start calculating it in a month or two before the actual event. I'm putting my money where my mouth is by doing everything I can to stack up more coins because it could very well be the last ever time we see these levels again.

In terms of the sentiment, it's horrible, and that's actually a good thing because the market tends to move in the opposite direction of the dumb money herd. This doesn't mean that we're completely out of the woods yet, but buying at today's prices is a whole lot more rewarding than fomo'ing into the market at +$10,000 levels.

I can only say thank you for this opportunity. Grin

bbc.reporter

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@Betwrong. It certainly appears that way. However, it is very understandable for most of us to be in denial of the bad news during bitcoin's pump when the news was beginning to be discovered on August.

Also, no one can predict how long the market is to be affected by this. It might be long, it might be short hehehe.

cr1776

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Quote from: Betwrong on December 18, 2019, 11:04:34 AM

...When people are going to realize that this is a red flag? ...

I think you are right - probably never. People want a quick buck and think "this time it is different" and someone can really pay be 1%/day or whatever. Whether naive, stupid or just greedy, there are enough people out there that someone, somewhere will try and take advantage of them.

Topic: [2019-12-17] Bitcoin’s failing price could be caused by $2B Chinese Ponzi scheme (Read 309 times)