Topic: [2019-12-19] Heard of bitcoin's 'halving'? It's set to shake crypto markets ... (Read 459 times)

It's definitely a common misconception for sure.

I think it is a reason why a lot of people seem to think that bitcoin is deflationary, when in reality it is simply disinflationary. You could only say that halving reduces the supply of newly minted coins, but not the aggregate amount of coins that is currently in circulation.

I do think that halving will bring about a substantial bull market but nowhere near the size that people seem to anticipate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currencies-halving-idUSKBN1YN19A

Yet another journalist promoting the misconception that the halving reduces the supply of bitcoins. The opening paragraph is correct but the remainder of the article replaces "production" with "supply". The author is then obligated to explain how lower supply and constant demand effect the price.

The article also notes that the price rose in the years following the halvings, but neglects to mention the fact that the price also rose in the years preceding the halvings.

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However, you do not think that there is a first time for everything? That it might be the first time that bitcoin might stay on a bear market after a halving because all demand is exhausted?

Bitcoin will do much more than 'SoV'. I see it can do all we want. Why artificial limit it for fishy sake or rather hidden agendas ?

Just see how all that play out having big blocks and industrial capacity enabeling

History is ongoing.

why does it bother you so much if people use BTC as a store of value or speculative asset more so than a currency?

history seems to disagree with you anyway. during strong bull markets, BTC price and transaction fees rise in tandem. when demand is high, people don't seem to mind paying high fees for the privilege of owning BTC.

Bullish on fees

Bearish on use for btc

Less use - lower value

Price still pure speculation

Shake it?

I doubt it. But the expectations are clearly bullish in this regard.

Over the past few halvings markets have always risen, typically around 1-2 years after the halving marks the peak of the bull market.

This seems to coincide with current market developments as well. We'll get a real shot at retesting the 5 digit psychological barrier once again and finally break out of all the bearish sentiment that is currently present within the market.

However, you do not think that there is a first time for everything? That it might be the first time that bitcoin might stay on a bear market after a halving because all demand is exhausted?

If it will be bullish so eventually it will again shake the market, what scenario I am seeing is that, bitcoin price will pump and it will be overprice due to hype, then followed by a big correction which shakes the market eventually.


Hopefully that would happen, if bitcoin rises in smaller events compared to halving, I think we can possibly see bitcoin trading over $10,000 prior to halving. However, we should remain realistic of other possibilities that might not help to improve the market.

This time is different, market is more matured and people are getting clever.

@posi. I did not say a promising result is certain not to occur. I am only saying to prepare for disappointment because it might also occur similar to litecoin's halving.

Shake it?

I doubt it. But the expectations are clearly bullish in this regard.

Over the past few halvings markets have always risen, typically around 1-2 years after the halving marks the peak of the bull market.

This seems to coincide with current market developments as well. We'll get a real shot at retesting the 5 digit psychological barrier once again and finally break out of all the bearish sentiment that is currently present within the market.

I don't think anyone thinks it will have an immediate change in price.  The November 2012 halving and then the July 2016 halving didn't cause an immediate huge spike.  I remember watching for the first post-halving block.  It was like watching grass grow.  But anyway, it took time for the price to increase.  It wasn't until spring 2013 when it started to go up a lot (5-6 months), and then it wasn't until maybe spring 2017 after the July 2016 (6-8 months) halving that things started to look up in fiat price.

I think it went something like this:  People were anticipating the halving, had bought some bitcoin beforehand hoping to make a quick buck.  When it didn't spike that day, week or in the next month, people started selling think it wasn't going to happen.  It took months to clear out the bitcoin people had purchased prior to the halving.  Once that supply was cleared out, the impact of the limited new supply became apparent and the price ended up reflecting that over time.

So I wouldn't expect a spike in the middle of May 2020.  There will likely be some increased demand between now and May because people want to get in prior to the halving so the fiat price may go up but I wouldn't expect a big spike in price on May 14th (or whenever it ends up actually occurring) for the same reasons it hasn't happened in the past.

Will the next halving result in a similar price spike as the previous ones?  No one knows, but if new demand for bitcoin remains the same while the new supply is cut in half yes.  

Imo, the fact of removing 300k+ BTC from the possible yearly supply will surely have a psychological effect on the current and potential Bitcoin investors, resulting in the price rise.

in terms of pricing in market information, the halving is psychologically no different than other news events. it's publicly known about and there is a discrete event date. for that reason, the "buy the rumor, sell the news" adage most likely applies, which is why we saw a large run-up in the months prior to the 2012 and 2016 halvings. smart traders and whales will probably front run the "sell the news" event by distributing before the actual halving takes place. perhaps in march or april.

with the halving only 5 months away, all i know is it's a dangerous time to be short......

In theory, if supply is cut and demand stays constant, prices rise. This time around, seven crypto traders and miners interviewed by Reuters said the May halving would probably lead to greater volatility and trading volumes. However the cut to supply is liked to be more priced in than previously, they said, with many traders already geared up for the upcoming event.

So I wouldn't expect a spike in the middle of May 2020.  There will likely be some increased demand between now and May because people want to get in prior to the halving so the fiat price may go up but I wouldn't expect a big spike in price on May 14th (or whenever it ends up actually occurring) for the same reasons it hasn't happened in the past.