After Mavs recent loss to Denver Nuggets, Im sure they will bounce back again playing at their home. Prior to that loss, they have an amazing 4 game winning streak so playing at home will back their good performance. And their front guards are doing well especially Yogi Ferrell. I think more continous playing time for this guy will improved his performance more.
Since they are on/off team like you said we can't really predict what team has the most percentage of winnings based on analyzations and game preview. The moneyline odds offered for both team are almost close meaning sportsbookers sees this game will be a close one. Mavs is also known for upsetting dominant teams with San Antonio as the best example when they upset these team last January 30 at Spurs home.
For a safe one, I will not choose moneyline but on Over Points instead. I see this game will passed Over 204 [email protected].