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Topic: [2020-01-25] Can Bitcoin Price Hit $424,000 Sometime in Late 2021? - page 3. (Read 502 times)

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These articles are always so interesting, inspiring. The prospect of a lucrative future! How could anyone want to deny it. And the moving averages and the technical analysis makes such good fact to support the theories.

Here's the rub...
  • These predictions pop up every year, especially with a halving on the horizon, yet they never come true
  • Moving averages and technical analysis is less and less reliable the greater the length of the look back, i.e., the last week of price is a better predictor of the next week of price than the last 20 weeks moving average will predict the next 20 weeks of moving average

It's fun to talk about. Certainly hodl on. Just don't get your hopes up. When $424k is in our sights, we'll be sitting at $400k....not $10k.
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"Quietly Making Noise"
Can Bitcoin Price Hit $424,000 Sometime in Late 2021?

Based on historical data, when the 20MA is acting as support for BTC price, Bitcoin has tended to be in an extended bull market. Conversely, the times that 20MA has acted as resistance against the upward movement in Bitcoin price, have been during bear markets....

...Gains in the last cycle were around 5,000% and occurred 97 weeks after the 20MA first held as support. Mimicking this exactly gives a bitcoin price of $424k, happening sometime in November 2021.
...


...He also thinks that the market cycles are lengthening. Specifically that the time between the halving and the peak has been getting longer.

After the first halving, the peak came after around 52 weeks. However, after the second halving, this period increased to 73 weeks. Cowen, therefore, suggests that the peak following this year’s halving may take longer still, with a potential peak not occurring until 2022.

Still, that would give us a $125k Bitcoin price sometime in early 2022, which is certainly not to be sniffed at… if we can stay above the 20MA as support.

https://bitcoinist.com/can-bitcoin-price-hit-usd-424000-in-2021/
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