Topic: [2020-06-04] Bloomberg: “Bitcoin Toward $20,000 in 2020" - page 2. (Read 978 times)

Yes, indeed!  By saying that halving has little to no effect on BTC price I'm not trying to sound bearish. Not at all! What I meant was that Bitcoin price could rise significantly(due to increasing demand) even if there were no halving, and even if a million of lost BTC were magically restored and went to the market. That's how bullish I am!

That is why I specifically said "new supply" - which you highlighted.  :-)  When you decrease the new supply on the market you certainly decrease the amount that miners are able to sell, whether or not they do so immediately or not.  That decreases the overall "supply" that is available to be sold on the market.  

It is critical to note that prices are set at the margin so a small decrease in overall supply due to a decrease in new supply, can have an outsized impact on price.  Particularly if demand stays constant or increases.  Similarly a small increase in demand can have an outsized impact on price when supply is constant or decreasing.  Now with bitcoin, everyone knows that the eventual total number of bitcoins is fixed (barring any overflow bugs), new supply is decreasing, the only question is at what price, if any, person X is willing to sell.

Obviously it is all complex, but miners do often have to sell at least some supply to cover costs.  Going to 900/day from 1800/day becomes significant over time just to pay the bills and they have 900 fewer per day to sell to cover costs -- at current prices 900/per day is around US$10-$11 million per day, or around US$4 billion per year in fewer newly mined coins available.   With demand from GBTC reportedly soaking up a large percentage of newly minted/mined coins back in the spring, cutting that in half seems bound to impact price.  Back in 2012, a decrease from 7200 to 3600/day didn't cost that much if the price was US$5-10, maybe $30000-$40000 per day. 

Nothing is guaranteed, but the past 2 halvings have had a large impact on price.  Increased or constant demand and less "new supply" seem to be a recipe for a higher fiat price. (Speaking of fiat, printing an extra US$5-10 trillion for coronavirus aid should make people aware of the dangers of fiat inflating purchasing power away).

:-)

well, you've got the right idea, absolutely

I guess it depends on what you mean by "market supply", the miners coins may well not be hitting the exchanges in a way that affects the published price, but the miners are almost certainly selling a great deal of them outside of the exchanges (profit margins are slender in cryptocurrency mining, and operating costs are both high and payable in fiat). Although the marketplace for BTC (strictly speaking) includes OTC sales, it's just that these are private sales, not public.

It's quite likely that the BTC sold by miners therefore do not (at least in the instant where they are sold initially) affect the market price, but maybe this is what you are arguing, that the supply trading on exchanges is more static than is implied by the block subsidy halvings? Sounds like a bullish argument

I'm not trolling in the sense that most trolls are doing: saying something they don't believe themselves just to start a war in the comments.

Here's what I think. In earlier days all mined Bitcoin was the "supply". And since there were so many of them: 7,200 newly minted coins each day, and there were almost no demand, and miners were willing to sell their coins whichever way to get at least something for their efforts(remember Bitcoin Pizza event), the price was so low. But with time things have changed. A market has emerged, with some demand there, and the price started to climb up. Some miners opted to hold their coins instead of selling them, and, at the same time, "traders", people who bought up thousands of cheap coins earlier, were willing to cash out with profit, crashing the price, and buying cheaper coins again later, selling them at increased price, and so on. Since then, the "supply" started to be formed, mostly, not by newly minted coins, but by the combined amount of coins sold by traders.  And this situation only intensifies with every new halving, meaning that the "supply" is less and less affected by the amount of coins mined during a previous day/week/month ...

Again, I'm not sure, whether I'm right or wrong. So, it's not trolling. If you can show that I'm wrong, I will accept it, and will be grateful to you for showing.

One webpage does not have the power to push BTC so high or even move it, bloomberg writes about many other assests with far less of a marketcap and even those they can not move.

But in general ,for the first time in long time i belive that BTC will hit ATH this year! The techincals and te fundementals of financial markets is the reasoning for me.

please confirm in simple, unequivocable terms that you are trolling

I may be wrong, but in my opinion newly mined BTC is not "supply", in the market sense of the word. "Supply" is the amount people are willing to sell. It can exceed the amount of newly mined Bitcoin many times, or, theoretically, it can be less than that, if miners prefer to hold instead of cashing out right away.

In other words, even if halving does affects the "supply", it does so to a very limited extent.

Bitcoin Price Fills New Futures Gap as Bullish BTC Heads to $12K

It seems that many investors are excited about bitcoin, but the question I continue to have is: Is this bitcoin price increase not related to ETH 2.0? example: Whales take advantage of the ETH 2.0 pump by buying bitcoin so that other people also think that bitcoin is in the bull run?

Given the halving of new supply and increased demand, $20k is definitely within reach for 2020.  Perhaps higher.   During the previous halvings, it wasn't instant, but took months to a year.  No complaints here for sure.

In last couple of days then things have suddenly changed, and bitcoin has moved quite fast from 10k level to 11200$ at present price. This has been a quick movement and only thing in coming time will know if it can survive above 11k levels or it is just a short rally where some of them might make quick bucks with this rally. But a good time for traders since this volatility is what makes them happy and for investors as well as some of them can book some profits too.

today Is the 26th of July and current price: $9700 ... Since October last year, the price has failed to break the $10500 and whenever it tries to break the $ 10500 the price drops a lot. That's why I'm only going to be optimistic if the bitcoin price breaks $10,500 and remains above $ 13,000 if it is to reach $ 20,000 this year. If the price does not break the $13,000, I not dream of $20,000 this year

It is rightly noted here that we still have a big problem with the spread of coronavirus and therefore the economies of states continue to fall, and their economic performance deteriorates. However, if at the initial stage of the spread of coronavirus, the cryptocurrency market fell significantly in price, now the consequences of fighting it can push the cryptocurrency market to growth.
 If, due to the coronavirus, a tough global economic crisis will soon begin, then people will save their usual currency from inflation and invest in cryptocurrency. Therefore, bitcoin and other potential cryptocurrencies for development will skyrocket in value. Then the predictions about the bitcoin price of $ 20,000 by the end of this year will be quite real.

I dont easily buy out those kind of predictions no matter how trustable they are or known ones yet i do rather believe if they do make out these bullish calls

that there would be some sort of deep pullbacks in prices for them to get in first before the price starts to cling up into the ladder.

$20k price is somehow realistic compared to those numbers like 50k - 100k predictions recently which is total BS!

If that would help to convince people from buying Bitcoin, then that would be very helpful and I'll be glad to welcome a new bull run.
However, based on my personal analysis, I am not seeing yet that bitcoin will break its current ATH and people will get FOMO'd again, that's because this year was a bad year for our economy and it takes the same scenario in the past where people are getting FOMO to bring the price up.

I don't know if the whales are capable of doing that price to go that high, but I doubt it will happen this year as I believe they also understand that the timing is not good and they might just fail from their expectation.

July 7th, I had to come and see that thread, current price  $9250.

there are 5 months to go before the year ends and the pandemic seems to be getting worse in some rich countries the situation is being a great disaster and unemployment is increasing due to this pandemic. I also believe that people will not have much money to make investments, maybe even the focus now is to buy food and stay at home, as this whole situation is so extreme as these blomberg guys can be optimistic to the point of thinking that we would see  $20,000 this year? where does it come from so much money to increase the price? I highly doubt that this year the price will exceed 13000 $ unless they say that this year there will be a vaccine for this virus to vaccinate people en masse and then the markets will recover very quickly which is not possible in 5 months left for the year finish


I think that until June of the next year the price will be  $17000 maximum, I am not seeing more than $20,000

These predictions are mostly random and they are making a prediction with stock market examples.
1. Bitcoin is doing almost random things at the price
2. Bitcoin will never be like the stocks - it is opened 24/7 and there are no regulations - can't just stop trading so people will not be panicking so much.

So Bloomberg - you just wasted your time. But we are glad, that you are interested in crypto.

Not even for a moment I thought their TA was right in itself. Imo, by talking about Bitcoin's possible mirroring its previous behaviour they(Bloomberg) are mirroring an infinite number of analyses made by less respected news outlets. I just thought their article might have had a positive impact on Bitcoin price, and I'm still not sure whether there was one or not. Maybe it was a coincidence, but that highest peak over there



happened exactly the next day after the Bloomberg's analyses was published.

After reading some parts of their pdf on why we should remain bullish in Bitcoin's price movement this year I feel like even an analysts in Bloomberg is lacking the words on why they think Bitcoin will "mirror" the movement it did back in 2017, it was written as if a crypto news website is analyzing the price movement. Yes I know they provided some sophisticated charts as well as provided some historical data about it but it just feels like what they are saying in their file has already been said before and some of that predictions failed due to comparing Bitcoin's future price movement to it's historical price movement.

I thought it was reserved for CNBC speculation, and for that guy (I can't remember his name), but whenever he announced a BTC/crypto bull run the exact opposite happened. But we are not far from the truth if we say that the media actually live from big headlines, and everything behind it is just an eternal game of cat and mouse. I personally used to watch Bloomberg sometimes because I have it available on satellite TV, but I honestly would not base my investment on what I hear or see in such media.


Probably, no matter how we interpreted the data from the article I posted. If we were to ask business people, and perhaps some others, to name at least three such media - surely Bloomberg would be one of them.

Though I am still wary of many predictions as to the price of Bitcoin especially those exaggerated ones that are obviously made just to make some space in people's scare attention, I am of the same feeling that 20K as the goal for Bitcoin is not too much and if things can be going well then that can happen within this year. Anyway, all we can all do is hope, wish and even pray that the current bullish trend for Bitcoin can be sustained.