Topic: 2020 Democrats - page 12. (Read 12658 times)

TO state the obvious, "Winning Texas by less than 10" is not the same as "Texas turning blue."

Right, but for a Republican to have any shot at the Presidency, you need to win Texas by at least 10. A smaller margin than that and you can pretty much extrapolate the voter turn out to other states and conclude there isn't enough to get the plurality in places like Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, ect.

Trump won Texas by about ~9 in 2016 and that race was about as close as it gets looking at states like Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin where Trump barely won.

Oh I know that this is going to take time, and this isn't going to a nice road to recovery. It's going to be pretty bumpty.

Though while the last jobs report was fine, there's the issue of Southern states (that were leading the job growth in the recent jobs reports) and California are most likely going to end up having to re shut down again to stop the spread of the virus.

Doubt by the time Novemeber comes around Texas is still blue. People right now only really care about the Coronavirus and they're not thinking of much else, that'll tighten come election time.

The recovery is going to take time. No one can expect the unemployment rate to immediately reach pre-COVID-19 levels. I've seen some analyst say that a full and complete recovery would take nearly a decade.

That being said, we have seen a V-shaped recovery and the recent jobs report was millions of jobs over projections. These are the ideas that you need to run a competent campaign. The Bubba Wallace nonsense is up Trump's alley but he's a moron for bringing it up when his poll numbers are this low.

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Texas is being considered a swing state by some: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

RCP compiled polls, one by CBS News only has Trump up +1, and another one conducted by Dallas Morning News has Biden up +5. This is about as bad as it gets for the Trump campaign. We still have time to the but if the election were tomorrow, it'd be a blow out.

I wouldn't put much faith in the reported unemployment numbers at this point. My feeling is it's a lot worse. There also used to be 2 different numbers. The one the politicians use that shows the best numbers and then the other which includes other categories of people. Can't seem to find that now for some reason. But. The reason why I don't think the current numbers are actually representative of the current state is due to the following.

"People are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week."

"People are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work."

"The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as not in the labor force."

https://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm

So, when taking into consideration the 4 week part (I doubt a lot of people would be reporting they're looking for work when they're told to stay at home or are doing so on their own as they're scared to get covid) and that if you don't fall into either of those categories you're not even considered part of the work force and thus are not part of the calculation, I suspect there's a whole lot more people that are unemployed than the numbers would tend to indicate.

One of the things the other unemployment number included was people that had been looking for work within a year I think it was, or maybe 6 months, can't remember now. That unemployment number was typically 5%+ higher than the one the politicians would tell everyone.

Edit.. Found it...
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
U-3 is what they tell everyone whereas U-6 is probably far more representative of what the true state is.

Economic recovery isn't really much of a recovery. Yeah the stock market is fine and some people are getting their jobs back, but a lot of people -- over 10% of working Americans are currently unemployed. Nothing to really boast about.

You can talk about how we're recovering, but the news are going to shoot back with -- but we're still at 10% unemployment and Americans are relying on the increased $600 unemployment benefit to survive.

The Wallace thing is right up Trumps alley. Perfect diversion for him.

I'm sure that's part of the reason but some of his tweets come out of left field. The Bubba Wallace tweet didn't make any sense because it was an event that happened two weeks prior, so it was bizarre to bring it up again when people forgot about it. I get that's he's trying to stir things up these things do nothing to help his reelection chances.

If he wants to divert, focus on the economy recovery, not bring up Bubba Wallace.

Doesn't really matter if the only reason for suing is to be able to get the media coverage, and the political points to force people into doing what ya want. Lol -- that's this fun game of politics, eh.


Eh, sometimes the twitter thing is a good thing for him. He uses it as a diversion from whatever is going on. I've read a few articles saying that he knows that the Coronavirus is a loser for him in public opinion, and most likely isn't going to change - so diverting the conversation to other things, even if they sound crazy, makes the msot sense to him and the rest of the team.

Not saying I agree with it, but that's just what they're probably doing.

maybe for you, but he has a lot of different supporting groups, and some of them will get this one, some of the will get some other tweets, it is not just a unilateral story

will be a tough race in the end, we will see how the elections will be organized, and what status of covid fight will be at that moment, but Trump has fine chances to win re-election and four more years on the position

If Trump can get this twitter under control, I think he'd get maybe a 10 percent boost in his approval rating and keep it within the margin of error, if not beating Biden, in most swing state polls.

Trump tweeted about Bubba Wallace and the noose "hoax" claiming he should apologize to Nascar two weeks after the event even happened. He's shooting himself in the foot. You have a V-shaped recovery that you can campaign on and new jobs being added which were ahead of projections, yet for some reason he's tweeting about Bubba Wallace. Literal self sabotage.

Bullshit, as most talking points on the subject are. Some Republican Secretaries of State refused to hand over SSNs and other personal information of their citizens. Some refused to provide any data. Some got sued to block handing the data over.

The investigators didn't bother to check (or didn't care) if state laws would allow them to get the data, and then they blamed the states for not cooperating. Pesky state rights, always getting in the way of a well-intended dictatorship.

Amazing that Democrats have kept a lot of people in the dark about such a simple issue as this one.

It is easy for communist nations to murder innocent citizens (this happens), but this doesn’t happen in the west. The West values individual life and the rule of law, while communist governments will do what it takes to stay in power and control their citizens.

Similarly, Republicans tend to be more principled and try to convince others with facts and logic, while Democrats tend to be more willing to do whatever it takes to obtain and keep power.

I would also note that it was Democrat Secretary of State (for states) that were refusing to corporate with Trumps voter fraud investigation at the beginning of his term.

It is also democrats that constantly try to prevent safeguards from being put into place to maintain the integrity of elections.

the left in america should stop pretending they are marxists or communists, and start confessing and admitting that they are racists

There are many easily demonstrated differences in behavior between the two major US political parties. That shouldn't be too hard for you to wrap your head around, right?

Sigh, I still don't know why it is so hard to wrap your head around the fact that there isn't this major ongoing voter fraud situation in the US. If it was such an easy thing to do for one party, the other would copy it and do the same exact thing.

Do we think all Republicans are amazing people who follow the letter of the law while Democrats ignore it? Because I think we all can find instances ON BOTH SIDES of that being VERY NOT TRUE.

Twitchy literally has provided an example of a Republican doing so, and if I wanted to search far and wide enough I could probably go find a Democrat doing the same exact thing. Is this indicative of a large scale conspiracy by either party? No.

Also Republicans go to church, Democrats go to school.

I kid.  I kid.

What are your thoughts on the NC republican House race that was overturned due to election fraud in 2018?  Is that proof that the Republicans will commit wide spread election fraud on a National level in 2020 or no?  If a State Senate primary race 70 years ago in Texas does for the democrats than surely it must.

Election Fraud in North Carolina Leads to New Charges for Republican Operative
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/30/us/mccrae-dowless-indictment.html

Believe it or not, there are actual behavioral differences between the two organizations. Ever since Texas Dead People voted LBJ into office, Democrats have loved the Fraud.

This is where TECSHARE comes in to pwn suchmoon by posting a bunch of right wing tabloid headlines about voter fraud and all the convictions and evidence there is and how it's happening without a doubt 100%.

And then I point out the evidence those articles are referring to shows about 1,000 convictions in the past 30 years for voter fraud related crimes - that's all that could be found.

And then TECSHARE gets all flustered and says 'yeah bc it's so easy to get away with', except with 3 or 4 paragraphs of personal attacks and rants.