Topic: 2020 Democrats - page 18. (Read 12658 times)

What a thing to say, or to have to remind people of.

Wasn't it the Democrats that were constantly reminding people of "how very stupid" ORANGEMANBAD was?

It's possible that he, or his VP rather, go completely deranged and start implementing unpopular policy but I think establishment democrats won't let that happen. Nancy Pelosi's done a decent job not letting the progressive newly elected members (AOC, Rashida Tlaib, ect.) from shifting the party even further left through any significant legislation that's made any sort of difference. I'd assume Biden's  administration would be the same way because far left legislation WILL get out independents to vote Republican down the line in 2022.

Following Obama's election in 08, Republicans won in an absolute landslide in Congress during midterms, maybe because of Obamacare.

If Biden is pandering to far leftists, I have no reason to discount that his administration would not be a far-leftist administration. Keep in mind that Biden lacks the mental capacity to make actual decisions, so whoever is his VP will likely be the one to actually making decisions the president would normally make.

If Biden is pandering to the crazy leftists, he will likely turn off moderate voters in the 2020 election. The response to the coronavirus and the civil unrest has shown Democratic leaders' tyrannical tendencies, which I believe will hurt Democrats down ballot.

Biden is undoubtedly going to pander to the leftist Bernie crowd and his Presidency won't be nearly as far left. I'm going to assume Biden is going to pick a moderate as his VP and if she begins to implement leftist policies that are wildly unpopular according to poll data, Democrats will get pummeled in the midterm elections two years later.

Local officials appear to have decided to not enforce their laws against rioting and related violence. Sending the violence will inevitably lead to deaths given how violent these rioters are. My guess is Democrats are hoping to force Trump to send in troops who end up killing Americans (who are presenting an immediate danger to other Americans via the use of frozen water bottles, guns, explosives, or otherwise) that will be described in the media as "peaceful protestors".

The protests and riots are clearly being organized and funded by outside group(s) (probably foreign), there is just no other way that there were "protests" in 13 US cities 4 days after an event that all turned into riots on the first night. Trump had said that Democrat governors and mayors needed to take control over their cities and that other countries were laughing at us and within 2 days protests popped up in other Western countries.


One thing that has stuck out to me about the Trump Presidency is the number of institutions that have managed to thoroughly discredit themselves. For example, a NY Times article that W Bush will not vote for Trump was apparently completly made up. This makes it difficult to trust some of these polls. Calling negative polls 'fake news' may also be a strategy to keep his base enthused.

There is also BLM propaganda that is telling people to basically disown any friends or family members who will not be "anti-racist" which is going to cause some people to be afraid to admit to being a Trump supporter.

Normally, unemployment benefits will only pay for about enough to pay for basic necessities and maybe enough to pay for gas to go to job interviews. The enhanced unemployment benefits have resulted in over 2/3 of people who lost their jobs making more on unemployment than they were making, softening the blow of losing their jobs. Last month, the economy added ~2.5 million jobs, when the expectation was nearly 8.5 million jobs lost, a swing of nearly 11 million jobs. Those that have a government-insured mortgage are able to receive 12 months of forbearance. I think most of the economic pain is going to be kicked past the election; I think this was probably by design.

I am uncomfortable with the Floyd situation. The video spread far more quickly than I would have expected, and there was another video, that of the woman with her dog in NY from the same day that also went viral. The four officers involved were fired before any of the protests started.

Whoever Biden chooses to be VP will effectively be the president on Feb 1 2021 if Biden is elected. They will probably have the title of President by the end of 2024. I would reserve judgment until Biden announces his VP pick, however since effectively winning the nomination, Biden has been pulled further to the left by Bernie Bros, so who knows what kind of presidency a Biden administration would be.

If you strongly believe that betting odds are "biased" then you should capitalize on them by betting against the bias.


Actually the reverse is true -- Biden has been the underdog up until this week. Its the first week his odds switched from a + to a -. This means betting on him pays less than 2:1, whereas it pays exactly 2:1 to bet on Trump.

For whatever reason, a bet on Biden in February would have yielded 20:1 odds -- now they are less than 2:1; that's quite a shift!

I think Trump was 500:1 at one point during the last election cycle.

I seem to have noticed a bias in betting odds for US presidential elections, which I feel is the result of international "ignorant voting influence."

However here, maybe the dynamics is different. To check this, I went to the Las Vegas betting odds, figuring that LV odds were more US-centric.

https://lasvegassportsbetting.com/2020-US-Presidential-Election-Las-Vegas-Odds_P14398.html

Here you can see a trend in which Biden did seem to have an advantage, but that has now vanished.

Right now Trump's reelection chances are looking pretty bad. The real economy is in tatters, he isn't perceived as handling coronavirus well, and apparently his handling of the Floyd issue was received very poorly. (I though that he struck a pretty moderate tone in his speeches on the matter, and while I strongly oppose it, I thought that sending in the military against rioters would be popular, so I'm surprised that people seem to overwhelmingly hate his response on this.)

The even bigger issue is that the Trump campaign has seemingly abandoned reality and prefers to live in a comfortable fantasy-land. Rather than acknowledge polls they don't like, they call them fake news. Rather than deal with the fact that 13% unemployment is both terrible on its face and probably a big underestimate due to various counting issues, they tout the unexpectedly-low number as a rocket-ship recovery and act as though the Fed-inflated stock market means anything to the average person. The average person is likely to increasingly be suffering economically as time goes on, regardless of what the numbers say. Rather than try to reach out at all, Trump focuses on appealing to his base. You can't improve your situation unless you realize that there are improvements to be made, and I feel like the Trump campaign is unwilling to find their flaws so that they can fix them. They should have the attitude of, "We got dealt a really bad hand and then furthermore made several mistakes, but we're still going to analyze the situation rationally and make the moves that give us the best chances of winning from here," rather than, "Everything is actually OK, and we can more-or-less continue with what we wanted to do and feel most comfortable doing."

At this point the betting odds give Biden something like a 52% chance of winning, and I think that this substantially underestimates Biden's chances. I prefer Trump over Biden, so it's disappointing. It'd especially be bad if the Democrats take the Presidency, the House, and the Senate, which looks possible right now.

Things can change, of course. The economy in reality won't come anywhere near recovering by November, but maybe Fed action + more stimulus can make it look as though things have improved quite a bit. It's likely that the Floyd issue will be forgotten by then. Biden is a truly terrible candidate, and maybe he'll totally fall apart with Trump's help. But in November Trump is definitely going to be in a much worse position than he was throughout most of his presidency.


The problem with 538 is that it's run by highly-biased Democrat-establishmentarians who don't realize how biased they are, so they tend to make mistakes. The RCP method is also flawed, but at least it's likely to be flawed in a more neutral way. Best to look at both sites, plus the details of the individual polls if it's important to you.

"Democrats Virtue Signal BACKFIRES, They Accidentally Wear Slave Trader Garments"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZhHUkrTw6c

The swamp fought back and fought back hard. The Obama FBI was in the middle of a baseless investigation that derailed the first two years of Trump's presidency, and probably got Democrats control over congress in 2018. Trump has struggled to implement his agenda at every turn, having ~all his cabinet nominations held up in the Senate that only resulted in the maximum debate time used with little if any actual debate and no minds changed. He has had to deal with an unprecedented number of "nationwide injunctions" that were previously nearly unheard of. More recently, it appears the Pentagon had undermined Trump's ability to call active-duty troops to protect the US from an insurrection.

"Donations, Including International Funding, to BlackLivesMatter.com Go Directly to the DNC – This Is Money Laundering"

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/06/exclusive-donations-including-international-funding-blacklivesmatter-com-go-directly-dnc-money-laundering/

I'm not even kidding I think the 2016 elections was decided in those last couple days, the debates were fierce and obviously very interesting to watch. At the time, it reaffirmed the fact that Trump wasn't going to be a traditional president, and people wanted that. People wanted to throw a grenade into D.C and pray that it would work to 'drain the swamp' and fix the issues.

While I'll still call myself a conservative (maybe learning more moderate these days) -- I don't think it worked in reforming the government.

The smile I just had is worth a few merits.

This reminds me of a scene from an old abbot and costello skit.

they bet on the three in the third race on march third.

the call of the race was as follows:

“there off you lose”


we are pretty much screwed either way the election goes.

The poll must be broken, there doesn't appear to be a preferred option for nobody to win 

Very good questions  but the response from the Dems is...

"Because, shut up."

I thought Hillary had a massive boost from the first debate with Trump and the 538 election model showed a decent amount of gain for her odds after the first debate. The VP debate, 2nd and 3rd Presidential debate didn't seem to do much though. With Trump and Biden being so different this election cycle and given Trump's track record, debates might not make any difference at all this time around.

why are the democrats trying to impose a racist president on america?

didn't they got with trump what they wanted a nonracist white republican president.

Debates are gonna be interesting, if you're a fan of cringe TV. But I don't think it will change much. I mean - how much did you remember from the debates by the time of the 2016 election and how much do you think it helped either candidate?

One more thing to add to all of this 2020 Democrat stuff.

Joe Biden really has tried to avoid the public light for all of this, which is really helping him. Biden does great when he can simply rely on riding on his past successes as a legislator and former Vice President (to a very popular former President, as well). When Biden is allowed to go and talk, he typically looks pretty bad and is incoherent a good amount of the time.

Biden is a ticking time bomb on what the hell is going to come out of his mouth and everyone knows it. Not to say that he's going to say something horrible, but he's going to say something that makes him vulnerable to criticism for not being fit for the office (could say the same thing of Trump, but many on here know exactly what I'm talking about in regards to Biden)

He tries to stay out of the public light, though I'm not sure how long that's going to be possible for -- once the Debates start and all of that, Biden is going to have to show up.