Topic: 2021-1-2 Coindesk - Bitcoin Worth $1B Leaves Coinbase as Institutions ‘FOMO’ Buy (Read 238 times)

You were not talking about Tether, however, Tether printing might be one of the causes of why bitcoin is presently pumping. Many people would tell me this is FUD, however, where are the audits and other documents? Why is Bitfinex and iFinex taking very long in presenting them?

@cr1776. Do you trust Bitfinex, iFinex, Tether and think they never printed unbacked USDT?

I wouldn't say it was FUD.  It is a valid point about printing fiat (and then USDT as a result) - assuming I didn't misconstrue what you said.  If your point was about governments massively printing fiat some of which gets funneled into USDT, my question is whether this is manipulation or smart people protecting themselves from potential inflation and other polices while they can.

I wasn't specifically talking about tether but, FUD or not, I believe that the same that's been done by central banks with markets can be applied to what UDST printing is doing to the bitcoin market. I'm basing my thoughts on what I see and, hopefully, these facts can't be denied.
How that is going to unfold? Who the f knows!

I cannot disagree if you are implying that bitcoin is being glaringly manipulated. Tether is 50% of bitcoin’s volume and they can infinite print USDT without regulation to continue the pump.

However, it appears everyone in the forum will call it FUD if I ask questions about this.

the printed money definitely reached the markets and that's what matters. we have a central bank that wants the inflation rate above target, who has shown unprecedented willingness to prop up the bond market. that drove the markets out of "flight to safety" mode and into "risk on" mode. expectations of rising inflation and vaccine optimism are pushing everything into a rally.

i see bitcoin's rally as part of that overall push---the same one that just sent gold to a new ATH a few months ago. there's just so much damn cash in the markets and everyone is scrambling to put it into something that will perform. with bitcoin having recently emerged in 2017 as a new legitimate asset class (confirmed by CFTC regulated futures markets), and given its strong performance this year, it's only natural that some of that institutional money flow is entering bitcoin.

Good point.
Those are surely some scary charts for those who can put them into perspective. I do not like what I am witnessing all around me: people are starting to lose grip with reality. There are some few privileged enough who have basically avoided any economic consequences (public employees) and entrepreneurs, private employees in certain sector (mostly entertainment, sport, tourism...) who took a bad hit. I have no magic ball but I do not like that they print money that do not reach the economy.
There should be a reason why institutional investors keep buying BTC, right?

Where do you think the printed money goes? It certainly doesn't go in my pockets, let alone in yours.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0
Yes, it's logical to me: the more they print the more they sustain the crippling economy.
You're right on one thing though: where the heck is inflation?

They can sustain whatever price levels they want? Where would all the unlimited money supply to sustain it come from? How would this not affect inflation? What you say is not logical.

Also, we have already witnessed financial bubbles burst because it cannot be sustained. 2007 housing bubble, 2014 and 2017 bitcoin bubbles and few other financial bubbles in history. Read them.

@cr1776. However, if you looked at the chart, does this stage of bitcoin’s price not look like in a stage of a bubble? Is this sustainable? Are the institutional investors’ funds unlimited to sustain this trajectory?

This was a great conversation and I am glad many of you follow the press board.
One thing I know is that, as cr1776 stressed, this time is completely different. We have never been here before, there are so many new players in this game that I am sure nobody knows what it is going to happen.
If these price levels will be sustained we will know that institutional investors are here to stay. If not, fasten your seat belt in any case.

Is it a bubble?  Maybe.  I do recall though that every single new high - $0.30, dollar parity, $10, $30, $100, $1000 and gold parity, $2000, $10000, $20000 - was also called a bubble.  Every time people said it was a bubble.  Even dollar parity, because it was a "ponzi", "wasn't secure", etc.  Really, I think that there were at least 10-12 times when people have said it was a bubble that I've noticed.  It has been much more than 2 bubbles though.  Each time may have been a bubble at the time, but for longer term, it didn't matter.  Some people called the guy who bought the pizza for Laszlo stupid for doing it in payment for bitcoin because it was worthless - many others thought it was great.  (Now the reverse is true calling Laszlo stupid for doing it, but he is anything but stupid.)

Remember EVERY time is different than the last.  This time institutional buying is more long term than trading, e.g. things like short term trading on Coinbase/Coinbase Pro/Gemini vs MSTR, Square, Galaxy, MassMutual, Guggenheim, and of course, GBTC (which is in turn owned by places like ARK, Kinetics, etc.)  From what I've read, these are long term holders looking for diversification.   Would they panic sell?  Perhaps, but much less likely than leveraged traderson any of the trading platforms or people in 2017 who were trying to make a quick buck and then panicked.  This adds stability to the fiat price and also decreases supply for sale which alone will increase the fiat price, let alone the halving last year, and the increase in demand.

Sure each time people were saying "bubble" there was volatility, but likewise each time there was an order of magnitude or 2 growth in fiat price and then it came down some, but nowhere near back to the earlier prices.  It then ended up retracing back to the next high.  

I have said it before, but anyone who has bought and held over the past 11 years has done great.  Even buying during the $1000 bubble, or the $30 bubble etc.  

Likewise, each year that bitcoin survives makes it much more likely it won't collapse.  2010, 2011, collapse was possible, low in my opinion at the time, but possible.  With time, with each institution and each person involved that likelihood has dropped.  It is always still possible, but extremely unlikely now.

Like figmentofmyass already explained, I think they can sustain whatever price levels they want. Before the covid19 crash that happened in March, wall street was in a bubble too and it popped. Nonetheless, here it is at those prices again without any actual link to what's happening in the economy.
Maybe bitcoin price is going up to a certain point and then it will magically pop because of some unforeseen (or carefully planned) black swan.
I have 100% confidence in bitcoin as an asset and as a technology but I don't trust what drives the market right now.

@figmentofmyass. However, look at the chart. This appears to be very similar to a bubble ready to burst. Similar to the 2 bubbles bitcoin has witnessed in the past. You reckon institutions would take that risk by buying today? Also, if the market is really manipulated by them, would it not he better to buy the bottom and manipulate it to sell during the height of the pump?

the stock market is in a bubble too. it's been making nonstop ATHs for years. who do you think is the driving force behind that? institutions, of course!

institutions do not only buy at the bottom of bear markets---i dunno why you are clinging to that assumption. they buy whatever is going up. and bitcoin is performing better than every other asset on the market.

several institutions (skybridge, ruffer, microstrategy, etc) recently said they were buying in november/december. give it a few weeks and another big name will drop. just wait.


2 weeks ago they were diving into the market. you think that's suddenly changed because the price went up?

@Karartma1. Do you really assume that institutional investors are buying bitcoin presently on where its price is? This might be the bubble stage and buying now is gambling that it might pump more. Institutional investors do not behave like this.

Bitcoin is slowly becoming an asset accepted by institutional investors as a long-term investment and I think we should focus on the long-term.
It's not like the 2017 frenzy when the retail world was running the show. Now we are at war with a financial world that has much more money and power than us, so hold your coins tight. This is just the beginning.

Yeah. It is surprising thay they are the one chasing those that's left in the circulation with a different and higher price when there were a lot of chances before that they can buy it cheaply. Maybe they know something that there's gonna be a bitcoin rush sooner or later.

It may be only them that knows it but us, we knew what is waiting for bitcoin in the nearest future and they've just realized it lately and wasted those moments when it's best to buy.

@figmentofmyass. Sorry. I got lazy from reading all these different articles. I did not bother to look again.

In any case, you speculate institutions will fomo buy bitcoin on these high prices? They might be too smart for this. Dumping on the people is their job hehe. I do not think they will fomo buy to hold bitcoin at their own expense.

I am only being my skeptical self hehehe. People in the cryptospace can sometimes become very excited about anything to hype.

"fomo buying" doesn't have to imply market buying on an exchange. just because there was a 35k outflow from coinbase doesn't mean it was a market buy. it was likely done OTC. i was just implying that institutions get "fear of missing out" like everyone else, even if they are a bit more methodical about how they enter the market.

i also don't think the prospect of slippage will necessarily stop institutions from entering a market. coinbase disclosed that microstrategy's buys were done partially OTC and partially through third party brokers/exchanges.


check the OP.

https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1345425421131649024

Institutions hire traders who know what they are doing and do have a method for their trades. They do not fomo buy and cause the price to move up very fast that would also cause slippage.

What outflow? Can you give me a source on this?

To add some more meat to the BBQ, institutionals investors do not tend to behave as retail investors who are basically easily to fool into the worst sneak oil scam. If they bought into btc so bad it's probably because they also got what it means to protect an asset from the enemy's eyes.