Topic: 21 million bitcoins is the same as 21 trillion bitcoins (for us now) (Read 380 times)

Okay. Therefore, you need to buy Bitcoin now and hodl it long enough to become rich in the future.

I know you want to refer to scarcity at main but you have generated a huge difference between 21million and 21 trillion because the algorithm changes with normal increase or decrease in supply and it will not remain Bitcoin any more.The inflation rate was kept in mind while making Bitcoin which makes it deflationary by mining all the coins by 2140 and prices will be increasing by that time and miners will earn fees over that 21million coins(as that's not possible due to lost bitcoins forever) and block rewards or halving will not occur.So it makes sense and we know how the system will work but for 21 trillion you don't know the system working or when actuall point of scarcity will arise with that.

Nah! Both supplies don't mean the same thing, whether in figures or in market interpretation. Bitcoin is able to pull up to this price level because of its limited supply. Remember that scarcity gives a thing its price value through demand. Anyday Bitcoin is increased to even as little as 50 million in max supply it will amaze you how fast the price will plummet. So you know that it isn't about inflation anything. It's the scarcity (apart from its pathfinder status) that gives Bitcoin an edge.

First things I do before picking a project is to find out its total supply and then its utility or use-case. I believe a lot of people also do that. Investors don't blindly throw away their money.

To go a bit further, and try a thought experiment, a value of 84 million coins could have been used.  With the calculations occurring thus:

12 blocks per hour
*24 hours per day
* 365 days a year
* 4 years per cycle
= 420,480

Which is approximately 420,000

The sum of all prize sizes for mined BTC block
100 + 50 + 25 + 12.5 + 6.25 + 3.125 + ... = 200

420,000 * 200 = 84 million.

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With this amount of coins, and changing nothing else in the algorithm (and if my guesses are correct), the current circulation supply would be around: 74,640,000.
Given a market cap of 1.07 trillion, may put the price of one bitcoin at:  $ 14,373.

The price of 14k is lower than the current 60k, but this only takes into account an increase in supply, it does not include the human's psychology surrounding prices of assets.  That is, since the price would be lower for the 84 million capped coin, the FOMO would be less.  People would have less fear of missing out over the life this 84 million capped coin since there are more coins in circulation.  This effect may produce less interest, and therefore less buyers which produces an even smaller price than 14k.

Yet another psychological effect on the price, is simply that a lower price gives the impression of less value.  People are less willing to purchase something that has less value.  This seems counter intuitive, but this happens quite frequently in pricing.

One can see that having an even larger circulation number, like in the trillions, would produce even smaller prices for a coin, with even less psychological human interest, in which case it's possible to imagine that bitcoin wouldn't have taken off as it has.

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Given the above, there is no reason to think that Satoshi did not experiment with various caps, and block reward amounts, before a final implementation of what we have now.

Mathematical theory
The rationale for Nakamoto's choice.

Calculation of the number of blocks in a four-year cycle:

6 blocks per hour
*24 hours per day
* 365 days a year
* 4 years per cycle
= 210.240

Which is approximately 210,000

The sum of all prize sizes for mined BTC block
50 + 25 + 12.5 + 6.25 + 3.125 + ... = 100

210,000 * 100 = 21 million.

One forum user stressed that this equation, however, could not explain the decision made by the creator of Bitcoin, as it was constructed on the basis of already existing parameters.

What matters most is, of course, the circulating supply, so you're right that under the circumstances you described, 21 trillion bitcoins wouldn't make a difference. The only difference would be in perception, but that difference could have a major impact. The appeal of Bitcoin is largely based on the fact that it's perceived as scarce. If people knew that we've mined a very tiny amount out of the total supply, it would be discouraging and feel like Bitcoin would eventually lose its relevance due to being overabundant. And this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, making people lose interest in mining and using Bitcoin way faster than it could've actually reasonably happened in a thousand years from now.

Are you trying to defame bitcoin? Im not so sure about your motive, it's sounds like your selling out other than btc to us or to new comers. Bitcoin as of now is okay and if ever it had been 21 trillion, it would've been less than 10 dollars or maybe no value at all. I don't know really ehat satoshi thought the time he chose 21 millions, but the current btc price shows that this guy Satoshi is a genius.

Divisibility is the topic you are trying to address..

100 million Satoshi = 1 Bitcoin

1 Satoshi can be divided again by 100 million. (that unit should be called 'Roger')(BTC smallest unit)

Even with this 21 million bitcoins that we have, I don’t think there is going to be a time when you will want to buy Bitcoin and you will be told that there isn’t any Bitcoin available in the market.

There will always be bitcoins for anyone to buy, although I have noticed that lots of institutions are now buying up so many bitcoins, storing them in their wallets and keeping them from circulating, but the price has been increasing to match the level of demand that has been coming into the market and that’s how it will keep on increase. But, I believe that the number of bitcoins in the market can be increased, but the devs just don’t want to do that.

I am also asking it on myself would it be trendy or talked by the people when the last BTC is mined because it would be a 100 years from now,
A lot of things could happen crypto could still be there but BTC could had been replaced.
So for me let's just relax and enjoy it don't think too much about the future specially the one that you wouldn't even witness.

I get the gist of what you're saying, although in a hundred years, a lot of things might and will happen that what you're trying to say would be trivial, and would not matter anymore. Perhaps by then, the need to use bitcoin would not be there, as it will be replaced by another system that runs better and is more adapted to the society in that century. Right now, the 21 million cap is in place to keep the system from losing value like fiat. Also, the diminishing returns over time ensures that no one can 'whale' the system and if they want to, they'd also need to shell a whole lot of money in order to do so.

There is logic in these reflections, but a little different. Many types of cryptocurrencies do not have an internal division and are issued in several billions and tens of billions. Since there are one hundred million satoshi in one bitcoin, it is quite possible to say that the bits of bitcoin that people can buy are a hundred million times more than 21 million.
If bitcoin continues to grow in price, then in the future, rarely will anyone buy not only whole bitcoins, but even ten and hundredths of it. Most likely, we will talk about buying a certain amount of satosh.

You only take one factor in your calculation. As vario mentioned above, even if inflation stays the same, there will be more and more coins that will enter the market, and eventually, the volume would drastically change. It will gradually become worthless (price will go down) and the purchasing power would decrease, just like fiat.

Do you think you'll be happy when your 1 BTC right now will be equal to 0.1 BTC in the next 10 years? I doubt you'll like that. You need to look at the long-term instead of the short-term effect.

The rules of Bitcoin is the block rewards halve every about 4 years, thus the inflation halves every about 4 years as well. To end with 21 trillion, and not just 21 million Bitcoin have, the inflation rules would need to be very different from Bitcoin. With the 21 trillion in 9140, you would need some more or less constant inflation from now for the next 7000 years, but then you would end up with something like fiat, eg not worth hoding because it inflate over time to worthlessness

I don't quite understand what you mean by that. The value will certainly grow over time.

If there were 21 trillion coins and they're all mined in 9140, then no, it wouldn't be the same. If they're 21 trillion coins and every other consensus rule was the same with bitcoin then every block would reward 50*1,000,000 for the first 209,999 blocks, 25*1,000,000 for the next 210,000 blocks and it goes on. The market cap wouldn't (probably) change and every coin would cost current_price / 1,000,000 => 53,000 USD / 1,000,000 = 0.053 cents.

But in order to be mined in 9140 you have to define:

• The reward of each block.
• The average time between mined blocks.
• How often will a halving occur.

Agree it would be no different for us, but eventually, when we're all dead (assuming population stays about the same) there's will be too many coins to expect 6 figures.

maybe ill try to explain my point again, so imagine....

BTC 21,000,000 / Current Circulating Supply / 18,648,793 BTC / Year 2020 / Projected Circulating Supply in 2030 following inflation rate 1.4% = 18,980,000 (for example)

BTC 21,000,000,000,000 / Current Circulating Supply / 18,648,793 BTC / Year 2020 / Projected Circulating Supply in 2030 following inflation rate 1.4% = 18,980,000 (for example)

It would be the same.

So it wont matter FOR US if its a fixed supply of 21 million, because during the course of our human lifespan bitcoin will still inflate at the same rate.

But for people born in say 2120, it will be an issue because there will only be 20 years left before in becomes deflationary, but for all of us born now it has no effect.

in a sense you are right but if you really think about what you are saying you would see that it makes no sense. why should a system be designed for thousands of years? we know that bitcoin will never last that long. like everything else bitcoin will also be replaced by a new technology and 2140 is a good estimation of the time it would maybe start becoming obsolete. designing it for 9000 years makes no sense.

21 million for bitcoin
21 million for us
These are two different issues, but most people is paying attention to the price of Bitcoin,which is very sad.

For us,Bitcoin is increasing every day of our life. This is correct,But if growth is lower than people's needs, it is actually scarce.
This is happening now, or not happening, the performance of this uncertainty is the price.
For us, the difference between 21 million bitcoins or 21 trillion bitcoins is our imagination.

For bitcoin, the difference is that the data.

I am very happy to see this, and I thought of this question a few days ago.