Topic: 25BTC reward but.. no drop in hash rate! - page 2. (Read 5733 times)

only a 4% estimated increase right now for the next difficulty reset.

EDIT: I should also add that if the BTC/USD price went up by 4% as well, the price would go from $12.30 to $12.79. We haven't seen that yet.
So the BTC price isn't even keeping up with the post-halving diff increase -- nevermind making up for the halving.

only 22.79Th/s now

Using block solve times and network difficulty for a week results in a fairly accurate estimation of the network hashrate over the week. Hourly averages will have a much larger variance from the actual (unknowable) network hashrate.

it seems to me its more accurate to look at the larger pools listed hashrates, than the average based on block times listed on some. I see no decrease in Eclipse, or Bitminter. Maybe a slight decrease with deepbit. I'm not familiar with slush's average rate though. It will probably be at least a week until we see any decrease

You can't tell yet. The network hashrate you see in various places is an estimate based on the number of blocks solved by the network in a given time period and on the network mining Difficulty. The shorter the time period over which this average occurs, the greater the possible error.

If you see huge swings in the network hashrate over short periods of time. it's more likely these are due to variance rather than a change in the number of hashes being submitted to the network.

The hashrate of the network is already beginning a decline as people shut off their rigs.

The network hashrate is only an estimate based on the number of solved blocks in a given time period and also on Difficulty. Variance is expected, and a change in the short term average hashrate doesn't necessarily reflect a change in the number of hashes submitted to the network.


That is not true. The network hashrate has been quite predictable. I've correlated changes in difficulty with changes in MTGOXUS$ exchange rate and written models that predict the hashrate reasonably well most of the time. I posted results here:

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/11/101-price-drives-difficulty.html
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/11/102-forecasting-network-hashrate.html
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/11/103-canaries-coal-mines-and-black-swans.html
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/12/104-long-range-forecasts-of-network.html


These models will probably break down while the ASIC hashrate is being added. Block reward halving I'm not sure about, but my guess is that in the short term there won't be a significant effect on the network hashrate or difficulty.

Some drop already observed ~24TH now, interesting, how low will it drop?

You hit the nail on the head.

Fact: Many Americans are bad at math (look at the popularity of the Lottery!)
Fact: Many Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck. This shows an inability to budget, live below one's means, insufficient attention to financial detail, etc.
Fact: Many Americans have to LEARN how to be frugal from websites, etc. It isn't something in their bones, or something they grew up with.
Fact: America has much cheaper electricity than, say, Europe -- so a good % of miners are going to be in America right now
Fact: Americans don't read books. Should I assume that they studiously read over their electric bill and understand it?
http://stephenslighthouse.com/2011/04/28/who-reads-books/
Fact: Young Americans are notorious for NOT being frugal. In fact, they are known for wasting their money on all manner of things ($18 for a cotton T-shirt with something specific printed on it?)

Yes, I could see young Americans running their Bitcoin miners just because they can afford it, and they "like" Bitcoin.  If they were losing money, many of them wouldn't even know it!

In fact, because men (let's face it -- the majority of miners) run on ego, I'd also expect them to brag online about how much they're making right now after the block halving. Who's going to verify it anyhow? They could be losing $5 a day and they could still fire up their browser and type in, "I am profitable all the way down to $5/Bitcoin!". Who would be the wiser?

It will drop, most miners aren't the best business man, so the hashrate drop will be delayed till the bills come in.

Part of it is mining for principles and some is speculation that the price will shoot up. There are plenty of people mining at a loss right now but most will only realize it when they actually have to pay for their power which isn't for another month or so.

Big in LTC is minor in BTC, ie if 1% of BTC miners go to LTC it might be for example 10% (using Stetson–Harrison method) or more increase in LTC hashrate.

Whats up with the fluxuation of the network hashrate??? From 23TH-31TH & back,what a swing !!!!

Can we expect swings like this or even more at higher network hashrates??

I've seen it vary by 2TH or so,but WOW 

FPGAs have no reason to stop as free electricity also:)
but i wonder where the big LTC hashrate increase came from if not from BTC people? 

I can verify this from first hand knowledge. 

That has been my observation also. 

I'm still running my GPUs because they provide heat during the winter. Otherwise I would have to run electric heat. I figure I'm breaking even when considering the cost of electric heat vs. the cost of miners - value of coins mined. Come next spring I am shutting everything down and selling most of the equipment for a final cash out. Maybe some ASICs will actually exist in real people's hands by then.

It appears that many has free or cheep electricity. For me, its two 5870's on free electricity and one 7970 downclocked to draw 200W totaly with hole rig at home. At home i ~ 0, because i have to pay for electricity anyway. This is just slightly higher than without 24/7 PC running on 200W.

If you don't have cheap or free electricity, you might as well stop mining now, you can't compete with those people with cheap/free electricity.

I was expecting to come back today to see a shitstorm in difficulty and price! Good job guys, you average out to much better speculators than I am. I'm amazed how smoothly this went.

I havn't seen a huge number of people here in the forums that have closed up GPU mining just yet. Most people seem to be sticking it out, and seeing where it is going. For me, it still learns a (slight) profit, so why not? When the ASICs hit is the other side of the coin, and I'm assuming a lot of GPU miners will shut down them. Of course, the network won't notice them leaving, but that's besides the point.