25btc/block soon? - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: mrdavis on November 13, 2011, 06:33:35 PM

Quote from: mmortal03 on November 13, 2011, 07:06:18 AM

According to the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, it will occur on December 21, 2012.

What a disappointment to find this reference at the end of the thread. It was my first thought and I wanted to make the joke.

Interestingly we could make a practical joke out of it if people begin to use the lagging difficulty adjustment so that the probability that the date is hit exactly is maximized. All it would take is throttle the hashing power by a few fractions of a % before every adjustment Wink

mrdavis

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Quote from: mmortal03 on November 13, 2011, 07:06:18 AM

According to the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, it will occur on December 21, 2012.

What a disappointment to find this reference at the end of the thread. It was my first thought and I wanted to make the joke.

mmortal03

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 12, 2011, 12:09:19 PM

Quote from: pandemic on November 12, 2011, 12:08:15 PM

When are we going to be seeing 25btc/block? I can only imagine that the difficulty is going to go through the floor when that happens.

The change will occur somewhere in Dec 2012. The exact date will vary depending on average block time.

According to the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, it will occur on December 21, 2012.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 12, 2011, 11:17:30 PM

Sure but that is due to supply & demand not difficulty.

The price of Bitcoin is based on supply and demand.
The utility drives demand.
Generation rate drives supply.

Price (well technically price * generation rate) drives difficulty

And in case of bitcoin price also drives demand, /or utility Wink

...at least it used to... now it's the opposite.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Sure but that is due to supply & demand not difficulty.

The price of Bitcoin is based on supply and demand.
The utility drives demand.
Generation rate drives supply.

Price (well technically price * generation rate) drives difficulty

fred0

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 12, 2011, 09:59:19 PM

Quote from: fred0 on November 12, 2011, 09:56:06 PM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 12, 2011, 09:31:35 PM

Or more simply price drives difficulty. Difficulty doesn't drive price.

Difficulty adjusts to keep the rate of inflation constant. The inflation rate will halve when the block reward halves. Difficulty could drive price is was adjusted too low or too high, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

But hey, I'm still a newb to bitcoin. Grin

Difficulty can never drive price. Price determines the profitability of miners and the number of miners (and those aggregate hashing power) drives difficulty.

Remember miners aren't working together they are competing for a fixed number of coins being generated. The same number of coins are generated if difficulty is 1 or difficulty is 10 million.

Right, so if the block reward is halved, as long as there is sufficient demand, shouldn't limited inflation make each bitcoin worth just a little bit more? Technically, it is still inflating, therefore, to me, it is all about demand. Without demand, there is no purpose to bitcoin, like in the early days when that guy bought a pizza to 10,000 BTC.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: fred0 on November 12, 2011, 09:56:06 PM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 12, 2011, 09:31:35 PM

Or more simply price drives difficulty. Difficulty doesn't drive price.

Difficulty adjusts to keep the rate of inflation constant. The inflation rate will halve when the block reward halves. Difficulty could drive price is was adjusted too low or too high, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

But hey, I'm still a newb to bitcoin. Grin

Difficulty can never drive price. Price determines the profitability of miners and the number of miners (and those aggregate hashing power) drives difficulty.

Remember miners aren't working together they are competing for a fixed number of coins being generated. The same number of coins are generated if difficulty is 1 or difficulty is 10 million.

fred0

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 12, 2011, 09:31:35 PM

Or more simply price drives difficulty. Difficulty doesn't drive price.

Difficulty adjusts to keep the rate of inflation constant. The inflation rate will halve when the block reward halves. Difficulty could drive price is was adjusted too low or too high, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

But hey, I'm still a newb to bitcoin. Grin

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Or more simply price drives difficulty. Difficulty doesn't drive price.

fred0

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on November 12, 2011, 09:08:06 PM

Quote from: fred0 on November 12, 2011, 08:38:14 PM

I don't see the cost of electricity/production cost being the major factor in bitcoin.

I think that it is mostly economic. For example, what does it cost to produce an once of gold? I'm sure some people here know(I don't). Is the determining factor in the price of gold the cost to mine?

As bitcoins become harder to acquire, the price should be going up -- without regard to the means of production. The halving of the block reward I'm sure will be a good thing for those with deep bitcoin wallets.

Doubtful. Price is based on supply and demand. Sure cutting the block reward in half reduces future supply but there is a huge amount of existing supply. Daily volume is only a tiny fraction of current supply and there are hundreds of thousands of coins which haven't been moved a long time. Lots of supply to dump on the market at any time.

So price rises if Bitcoin is more useful to hold. If the utility of Bitcoin doesn't double price isn't going to double, difficulty will just fall to compensate. Miners who are unprofitable will turn off rigs and lower difficulty.

Certainly you are correct. All hinges on Bitcoin's utility. Lack of adoption will mean slow death. Sustained growth in bitcoin use should mean sustained price.

deslok

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It's all about the game, and how you play it

Any changes from the decrease in block reqward are likley to be temporary, you'll have a small bust/boom right around the change and then back to buisness as usual, but that's just my humble opinion

DeathAndTaxes

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Quote from: fred0 on November 12, 2011, 08:38:14 PM

I don't see the cost of electricity/production cost being the major factor in bitcoin.

I think that it is mostly economic. For example, what does it cost to produce an once of gold? I'm sure some people here know(I don't). Is the determining factor in the price of gold the cost to mine?

As bitcoins become harder to acquire, the price should be going up -- without regard to the means of production. The halving of the block reward I'm sure will be a good thing for those with deep bitcoin wallets.

Doubtful. Price is based on supply and demand. Sure cutting the block reward in half reduces future supply but there is a huge amount of existing supply. Daily volume is only a tiny fraction of current supply and there are hundreds of thousands of coins which haven't been moved a long time. Lots of supply to dump on the market at any time.

So price rises if Bitcoin is more useful to hold. If the utility of Bitcoin doesn't double price isn't going to double, difficulty will just fall to compensate. Miners who are unprofitable will turn off rigs and lower difficulty.

fred0

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I don't see the cost of electricity/production cost being the major factor in bitcoin.

I think that it is mostly economic. For example, what does it cost to produce an once of gold? I'm sure some people here know(I don't). Is the determining factor in the price of gold the cost to mine?

As bitcoins become harder to acquire, the price should be going up -- without regard to the means of production. The halving of the block reward I'm sure will be a good thing for those with deep bitcoin wallets.

FreeMoney

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Strength in numbers

I move a lot. I get short term places, often 1-3 months. As best I can remember in my whole life I've had electric bill in my name 3 times, no electric bill ~8 times, and electric added to rent once. This doesn't count extended stay type places that also don't charge extra based on electric consumption, in those I don't even know if they can meter by room.

In most places you aren't going to get away with $100 more than the owner was expecting though.

I think the long term equilibrium is low power consuming specialized hashing devices, but in the medium term zero cost to miner electricity is going to be providing a lot of the network power.

MaxSan

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im not sitting here copying a million links for your benefit. Theres plenty there with all bills included. electricity is part of utility where i come from. this is a pointless discussion use Google.

EDIT : seems like people agree about electric being covered in utility bill btw too. its a basic utility.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage on November 12, 2011, 06:54:44 PM

Quote from: MaxSan on November 12, 2011, 06:36:22 PM

http://www.gumtree.com/p/flats-houses/newly-painted-two-bedroom-flat-in-a-period-conversion-all-utility-bills-are-included/90749649

...or http://chicago.craigslist.org/nwi/apa/2683460144.html

Quote

This is a Duplex in a Mobile Home Park

right.

rofl

Phinnaeus Gage

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Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending

Quote from: MaxSan on November 12, 2011, 06:36:22 PM

http://www.gumtree.com/p/flats-houses/newly-painted-two-bedroom-flat-in-a-period-conversion-all-utility-bills-are-included/90749649

...or http://chicago.craigslist.org/nwi/apa/2683460144.html

Phinnaeus Gage

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Bitcoin: An Idea Worth Spending

Quote from: ovidiusoft on November 12, 2011, 05:11:41 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on November 12, 2011, 04:44:16 PM

1. Limited amount, and still against the contract in most cases hence still stolen.

If you can read romanian, I'll send you a scanned copy of my datacenter contracts. I dare you to say it to my face that I steal electricity. BTW, the manager of one of the datacenters knows I'm running CPU mining full load on the machines there.

Quote from: ElectricMucus on November 12, 2011, 04:44:16 PM

2-4. Initial costs & maintenance, zero sum game without govt. sponsoring

I have an acquaintance who has a micro wind turbine, he recovered the money in a little more than 3 years. He now has free electricity. No government sponsoring. Is he stealing too?

Or are you trolling out of habit?

Did you mean: ...I'm running GPU mining full load on the machines there. Huh

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: MaxSan on November 12, 2011, 06:36:22 PM

http://www.gumtree.com/p/flats-houses/newly-painted-two-bedroom-flat-in-a-period-conversion-all-utility-bills-are-included/90749649

All utility bills only means elevator, waste disposal, janitor and so on, sometimes heating if it is provided by an in house oil heater (where I live for ex.). I also pay my rent "with utility bills included" but still I get charged separate for electricity, gas for warmwater & cooking and every 1000 liter of water I consume from the respected providers.
So this is just a way to tell potential customers that there are not additional costs to be payed to them.

You still live at your mum's aren't you? Cheesy

MaxSan

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http://www.gumtree.com/p/flats-houses/newly-painted-two-bedroom-flat-in-a-period-conversion-all-utility-bills-are-included/90749649

Topic: 25btc/block soon? - page 2. (Read 5097 times)