Topic: 26 days to the halving left, what are you expecting? - page 3. (Read 1389 times)

the increase might not be the day after halving happens, but im more than positive that it will increase some time but dont expect it to skyrocket. we are in a global crisis here and people are busy attending their own needs. but still exciting to know what will happen after this halving, after all it only happens every 4 years.

As time passes and the price of bitcoin increases it makes sense that we will see more time between the bull markets, however the corona virus has added a variable that was not present before, the world economy is in complete chaos and everyone is trying to figure out a way to make the economy work under the current conditions, and while bitcoin should do well over the long term it is doubtful we are going to see a bull market during this year when most economies of the world will contract and many jobs will be lost.

I already stop expecting of what could happen next because it stresses me out lol. I'm getting a liitle bit more frustrated with the current pandemic so there's no room for me to think aboit it. If the result of halving is bad then so be it them if it was good then much better. Less expectations, less hurt . But one thing is for sure, I remain holding and I guess my next move will depend on how things go .

It's very difficult to predict about halving because the world is getting stack day by day but there is no positive signal about any positive steps against Coronavirus so people are becoming workless and they will start very soon to withdraw their saving money for their daily life so it's very certain that We are getting another recession in the coming days so at this moment It can't be said that Bitcoin price will rise again in the Halving, but from the previous experience says that When people can't work at outside home then they should e depended online platform and there is a little chance to make this crypto world again greater, either this system will get developed or it will face a terrible threat because no one assume what will happen in the coming days.

I think it's a rough eastimation not a real cost. Maybe they calculated it based on the cheapest power some Chinese miners have 

I've read many other estimates that gave a much higher cost of mining and came to a conclusion that everythiung below 5000 dollars would already put most miners out of business.

Profitable mining is depending on the cost of power somewhere between 5000 and 6000 dolllars. I guess at this moment with price at 4000 there's not a miner in the world that wouldn't be mining at a loss.

The way I’m seeing it, maybe nothing will happen immediately after the halving. The price might still continue to be stable or maybe go up a bit, but it’s likely going to take more than this year before the price will go for a bull run. I don’t know if you have taken your time to go through what happened after the last Halving in 2016. Don’t forget that the last bull run we had was in 2017, that means the bull run didn’t start immediately the halving took place, it took sometime before it all happened.

I don’t know if the same thing is going to be happening or maybe not. A lot of people have predicted that 2020 is going to be the year for bull run, so I don’t know about this for sure, whether now is going to be different. What you least expect that happens.

We need to remember that in both the previous occasions (2012 and 2016), there was no major spikes immediately following the block reward halving. The prices began appreciating some 7-8 months after the event and reached ATH almost 1.5 years later. I am not saying that the same will repeat this time, but just remembering everyone that in the past this is what happened.

Like @Qcrypto said, history says it all that halving causes the price to go way up.

It wouldn't make sense if you are looking forward to the crashing of price after halving. If you are a BTC investor, you'd be looking to see the price to go way up, maybe double til the ATH again. The lesser the supply means miners will consider selling their coins for the higher prices.

I read it in an article, but that's beside the point.
Even if the costs are $0 and electricity is free, during halving your profits are still cut in half. That was my point.

I hope that also but I don't expect more pumps since the pandemic still on which contributes the major recession happening right now and we still don't know this will end next month since if the disease will still occur and the experts will not find a cure provably we will not see some good figures coming with bitcoins.

Well, I also hope that bitcoin will have more pumps to generate more profits for users but the real story is that as you said, the signal appears to be not too much, a certain force has prevented signs of bitcoin, forcing bitcoin to move sideways while the event is very near, a situation where investors need to be cautious in their decisions. Sensing that risk, my hope has never been accompanied by such a big bet, it is always within the allowed range, instead of all in one as many people are doing, it's too dangerous when we can lose everything

How was the mining cost of 4500$ per BTC calculated?

Just because recently trend hasn't been all happy and dandy doesn't mean halvening will randomly not have the impact it has repeatedly had in the past. It may not inmediately go up, but in about a year's time we're sure to see at least a whiff of a decent bull run once again, and that's just following past trends, sure we didn't have covid back then, but we have it now and bitcoin has sorta held its ground, and the few months before the halvening are ALWAYS flakey times.

Let's talk about the facts we know.

Bitcoin miners are currently receiving 12.5 Bitcoins per successful block produced. Which would translate to roughly $87 000 if they were to instantly sell the Bitcoins at the current price ($7000) at the time of this post (April 20, 2020).

Let also take into consideration the costs of mining. One article states that miners roughly spend $4500 in costs per 1 BTC mined. So their total cost of producing a new block would come to $56 250 with the
total earnings of $87 000. The end result is $30 750 profits.

Current reward: 12.5 Bitcoins
Total earnings: $87 000
Total cost: $56 250
Profit: $30 750

Now fast forward to halving. The cost of producing a new block is still the same, but the reward is cut down in half to 6.25 Bitcoins. Let's calculate.

New reward: 6.25 Bitcoins
Total earnings: $43 500
Total cost: $56 250
Profit: $-12 750



It is quite clear that Miners will have absolutely no intention in selling BTC at the current price of $7000 as they will go into a loss.
They have to start selling the BTC at a higher price otherwise it does not make sense for them to mine in the first place.


PS. even if the costs of producing a block are lower than I mentioned, miners would still report a profit loss due to reward halving. To compensate for the reward halving, they have to start selling at higher price.

I hope that bitcoin can pump when halving occurs, although now many people doubt that bitcoin will pump when halving occurs.
Because seeing the market now has not changed much, bitcoin prices are still stable. There is no sign yet that bitcoin prices will
pump.Though halving will happen a few weeks from now. But I'm still optimistic that bitcoin will pump, at least to the price of $10k.

Looking for a Bullish market to appear during the Halving is totally out from reality. I know it wasn't sure about that but if we tale a look closely to the market movement, we can tell that there is no such play at all. I'm wondering where whales have to go this time, I miss them actually. Many people had hated them but they seem helping the market to move high just like what they did last 2017 Bullrun. Their market participation has a huge market effect and it was making the recovery slower than we ever think.

At this moment it's really quite hard to explain. The hole world is suffering and everyday people getting more worried about their personal/financial life. I saw there are many projects stop their working because of corona from past months. People just want to be safe with their family. So in this situation it's tough to say anything about btc halving. But in my thought if corona situation over upcoming three months then btc price will be rise dramatically, otherwise nothing big will happen i guess.

During the halving meaning what? 1 day before and 1 day after?

It went up after each halving but needed a few weeks before it became clearly visible. It happened faster after the first halving and slower after the second. If we follow the same path it may even take a year before we see a new ATH but it will happen.

I have always thought that the price would go way up during a halving but history has proved not so. It does make more sense to go up and since bitcoin has been around quite some time I think this halving will effect the price more than the previous ones. If the price does drop though I think it would be the best time to buy more bitcoin. I see most are with me on this.

You get it correct, the Bitcoin halving as we have seen so far, it price is likely to shoot after the Bitcoin halving, that's the to say; a post bitcoin halving. This will be the good thing about Bitcoin. Although we have see some improvement in the price increase of Bitcoin today, this might be the golden bitcoin halving which is today. I can still vividly remember that, post Bitcoin halving is always good for long-term investors and traders who don't panic during the pre-bitcoin halving. We should expect better days ahead as we draw close to Bitcoin halving.