Topic: $3 billion in 'dust' to enter the market will push the bull run past the halving (Read 434 times)
April 22, 2020, 07:46:48 PM
$3b entering the market is not a big deal. That would make the total market cap to be about $210b which is still way below expectation. A lot of supposed experts are predicting a bearish market, I won't take them seriously as this has caused me and friends to miss a good opportunity.
April 22, 2020, 02:55:46 PM
What is dust actually? Its not so obvious
It gets confusing because people seem to use the word in different ways. At protocol level, "dust" means an amount of 546 satoshis or less, or 294 satoshis if using SegWit. But some people use the word colloquially to simply mean "a small amount". Actually, in the article, there is not a single mention of "dust".
The "dust" term was added by the OP replacing the original "Dry Powder"
I don't know why he did it but it turned out more confusing than helpful.
I too thought of something else when reading the title, and I was thinking of 3 billion in money that is left sitting on exchanges , something like the 1 billion in unused Starbucks gift cards.
April 22, 2020, 08:01:17 AM
What is dust actually? Its not so obvious
It gets confusing because people seem to use the word in different ways. At protocol level, "dust" means an amount of 546 satoshis or less, or 294 satoshis if using SegWit. But some people use the word colloquially to simply mean "a small amount". But then it becomes a question of perspective. What one person may consider an insignificant amount, another person may see as a sizeable amount of wealth. And because this article is talking about significant sums of BTC, muddying the waters by using the word dust isn't helpful for ease of understanding.
April 22, 2020, 06:50:29 AM
What is dust actually? Its not so obvious
April 22, 2020, 05:34:23 AM
Last year, coming across an old account in a teeny exchange, decided to offload the shitcoins for btc and was just short of withdrawal minimum.
I actually did a calculation some time last year when btc was at around 3.6k. All of my dust in scores of accounts I eiter opened for gambling (where plenty of rains and tips were accumulated in 2016/17). All dust in stupid bouts of altcoin buying when they were actually worth something. All of that was easily worth 0.05 or more, had I been able to consolidate without having fees eat them up.
I bet you, as lucius points out, a lot of big boyss could pretty much clear up all those stablecoin dust and get into btc big again. I'm thinking all those delisted coins esp customers never claimed. Not sure why it didn't happen at Black Thursday though.
I actually did a calculation some time last year when btc was at around 3.6k. All of my dust in scores of accounts I eiter opened for gambling (where plenty of rains and tips were accumulated in 2016/17). All dust in stupid bouts of altcoin buying when they were actually worth something. All of that was easily worth 0.05 or more, had I been able to consolidate without having fees eat them up.
I bet you, as lucius points out, a lot of big boyss could pretty much clear up all those stablecoin dust and get into btc big again. I'm thinking all those delisted coins esp customers never claimed. Not sure why it didn't happen at Black Thursday though.
April 22, 2020, 05:05:28 AM
$3 billion is a pretty small figure IMO to cause a substantial bull run of astronomical proportions. Perhaps it will cause a small bump but that's just about it, afterwards it will be eaten by the sell orders trying to make out some nice profits especially those who bought @ $4000.
For people who refuse to read anything than title (you included), this is not about some astronomically large bull run, but just a hypothetical situation that all that money located in stablecoins can be used at some point as investment in BTC, but also in altcoins. Some people obviously have problems with numbers, so I'll have to quote myself :
If we divide $3 billion with $7000 = we get almost 430 000 BTC at current price. Just for comparison, total amount of mined coins in one year (12.5 BTC per block reward) is 657 000.
For comparison, last year pump (from April 2019) was allegedly caused by Bakkt buying 100 000 BTC, and price is gone from $4000 to $14 000 in very short period of time.
April 21, 2020, 03:50:37 PM
Exactly, I am sure this new mint is definitely in preparation towards the upcoming Bitcoin halving. I am certainly sure we are going to see a pump in the market pretty soon. Don't let this recent dump in market deceive you, there is definitely a big pump coming away. Time now is to buy cheap assets on the market.
April 21, 2020, 02:56:17 PM
$3 billion is a pretty small figure IMO to cause a substantial bull run of astronomical proportions. Perhaps it will cause a small bump but that's just about it, afterwards it will be eaten by the sell orders trying to make out some nice profits especially those who bought @ $4000. If these people are really in it to make money, they would have done so earlier and not when the market clearly is stable and is going up. Timing is everything, and theirs in this instance is shit.
I agree, $3 billion is a huge amount of money but it won't a lot when injected. Bitcoins market capitalization is about $120 billion, you would not even notice if you take out the $3 billion. However, if injecting $3 billion to the market and interpreted by most of us as the start of bull run then it might be a trigger to let it happen, you know the market's core is speculation so it's not impossible to happen. I wonder if they would really be ballsy to go all-in on cryptocurrencies amid the pandemic.. Well, it certainly wouldn't go to stocks or kept in cash either, so it's this market that they're going to disturb.
Why not? I mean we have seen crashes after crashes of all type of markets, stock, oil and cryptocurrency but the crypto market is the only looking good as of now, on top of that is the fact that crypto is an alternative solution for fiat which we know these days that is very dangerous due to the virus. April 21, 2020, 02:21:49 PM
$3 billion is a pretty small figure IMO to cause a substantial bull run of astronomical proportions. Perhaps it will cause a small bump but that's just about it, afterwards it will be eaten by the sell orders trying to make out some nice profits especially those who bought @ $4000. If these people are really in it to make money, they would have done so earlier and not when the market clearly is stable and is going up. Timing is everything, and theirs in this instance is shit.
I wonder if they would really be ballsy to go all-in on cryptocurrencies amid the pandemic.. Well, it certainly wouldn't go to stocks or kept in cash either, so it's this market that they're going to disturb.
I wonder if they would really be ballsy to go all-in on cryptocurrencies amid the pandemic.. Well, it certainly wouldn't go to stocks or kept in cash either, so it's this market that they're going to disturb.
April 21, 2020, 01:47:12 PM
If really so much stableshitcoins is waiting in the sidelines I don't know if I should be happy or not.
If as much as a billion USDt gets converted to BTC a smart person should think twice if it's not a good moment to sell their coins end exit because we all know that stablecoins can be printed much easier than fiat money. They're just numbers in a database so by selling your coins for USDt you're literally getting dust just like they're naming it in the article.
If as much as a billion USDt gets converted to BTC a smart person should think twice if it's not a good moment to sell their coins end exit because we all know that stablecoins can be printed much easier than fiat money. They're just numbers in a database so by selling your coins for USDt you're literally getting dust just like they're naming it in the article.
April 21, 2020, 01:23:54 PM
According to messari a crypto data gathering company has explained all this dust is just accumulating ready and posed to enter the crypto space soon.
https://dailyhodl.com/2020/04/19/3000000000-in-dry-powder-poised-to-enter-bitcoin-btc-and-cryptocurrency-markets-messari-ceo
Been listening to them since they are a website many are using now with turning away from using coinmarketcap at being a centralized market watching website with the acquisition by binance a month ago.
https://dailyhodl.com/2020/04/19/3000000000-in-dry-powder-poised-to-enter-bitcoin-btc-and-cryptocurrency-markets-messari-ceo
Been listening to them since they are a website many are using now with turning away from using coinmarketcap at being a centralized market watching website with the acquisition by binance a month ago.
This was an ambitious point of view. Unlike previous halves, there are a lot of stable coins on the market. It should not be forgotten that their main purpose is to facilitate cryptocurrencies trade. But I have doubts about timing. Because previous price rises have been seen to extend up to 1 year after halving.
April 21, 2020, 12:51:37 PM
Well, as I understand and I hope I am not in mislead.
Well even if they buy today there will be no assurance that its value may change soon. They might have another reason or let's say they have a different strategy that they want to test and later find out if it will be beneficial to them or probably to the market. But if you think that it is right to buy while the price is low might as well take advantage of it because soon the price perhaps grows up.
Well even if they buy today there will be no assurance that its value may change soon. They might have another reason or let's say they have a different strategy that they want to test and later find out if it will be beneficial to them or probably to the market. But if you think that it is right to buy while the price is low might as well take advantage of it because soon the price perhaps grows up.
April 21, 2020, 12:10:51 PM
It might pump the crypto prices by 10% but that's all.We need tens of billions of dollars,even trillions to make Bitcoin hit the moon.3 billion US dollars isn't even worth discussing.
I would disagree that $3 billion is something that would pump the BTC price by only 10%, you slightly underestimate so much money. If someone decided to buy BTC for that amount, do you know how many coins would disappear from the market? If we divide $3 billion with $7000 = we get almost 430 000 BTC at current price. Just for comparison, total amount of mined coins in one year (12.5 BTC per block reward) is 657 000.
What we do know is that a $1 trillion market cap would currently put BTC price at $50 000 per coin, so we are just some $900 billions from that
April 21, 2020, 11:52:33 AM
That's indicating they will coming to bitcoin again, maybe just wait for big news about American stimulus result, i think if the stimulus gone bad, they will enter crypto market right after, but lets see, i hope i can see good news in near future
April 21, 2020, 11:35:06 AM
The crisis is getting worse, it wouldn't be logical for investors to give their money away to crypto but why keep it to stablecoin. Isn't that like the USD fiat which as a result of the government printing more bills, its value will just keep diving?
$3B is not enough to push anything, I doubt they'd be putting it right now to any investment. Unless BTC will once again touch the $3k
April 21, 2020, 11:22:57 AM
3 Billions USD is a huge amount, but not sure if enough to start a pump, rally, or any movement of price, maybe with some strategy...
But we should see some news and predictions now to the halving that is normal
But the question is: Why did they not bought at the bottom a few weeks ago?
But we should see some news and predictions now to the halving that is normal
But the question is: Why did they not bought at the bottom a few weeks ago?
April 21, 2020, 10:57:54 AM
Oh, the next step in the institutional money now rebranded as the people's money is coming saga? 
Of course, billions are waiting on the side for the price to rise to 10k so they could buy, they are not doing right now because it's obviously stupid to buy low and sell high, you have to make sure your entry point is at the ATH.
I'm starting to get a feeling that a lot of people are less and less anxious about the halving and are scared that there won't be any jumping price so they are digging every bit of info to try and stir a FOMO movement. And with each of those articles I feel more and more tempted to bet that the price won't budge even by 10% in March.
Because for a lot of people that tiny bit of insurance means something.
There are a lot of so-called traders that at the end of their trading binge when they are uncertain on what to buy tey retreat to stable coins, they wait there for an opportunity to buy or they are doing so just to take a break and sleep at least once a month at ease.
In a perfect world, the system isn't that bad, in ours...
But now, no matter how much I hate usdt, I'm actually clapping for this scheme to carry on a few years more if it crashes now...I don't want to think about it.
Of course, billions are waiting on the side for the price to rise to 10k so they could buy, they are not doing right now because it's obviously stupid to buy low and sell high, you have to make sure your entry point is at the ATH.
I'm starting to get a feeling that a lot of people are less and less anxious about the halving and are scared that there won't be any jumping price so they are digging every bit of info to try and stir a FOMO movement. And with each of those articles I feel more and more tempted to bet that the price won't budge even by 10% in March.
You're literally trading IOUs for something that may not even exist and have to place full trust in a company that, not only does it really exist, but also that you have a genuine and tangible claim to the funds the stablecoin supposedly represents. Why would you even get involved with something that shady?
Because for a lot of people that tiny bit of insurance means something.
There are a lot of so-called traders that at the end of their trading binge when they are uncertain on what to buy tey retreat to stable coins, they wait there for an opportunity to buy or they are doing so just to take a break and sleep at least once a month at ease.
In a perfect world, the system isn't that bad, in ours...
But now, no matter how much I hate usdt, I'm actually clapping for this scheme to carry on a few years more if it crashes now...I don't want to think about it.
April 21, 2020, 09:25:07 AM
So they keep the stable coins waiting and instead of buying now while the price is low, they are waiting for .. a certain block to pass in order to buy?
No. If they do that it'll be just a psychological tactic that'll actually do a big scale pump and dump. Which is not unusual at halving events.
Imho the real price growth may happen only when miners will not be willing anymore to sell cheap the much more hardly earned coins.
The exact same thing which is happening to the oil market.No. If they do that it'll be just a psychological tactic that'll actually do a big scale pump and dump. Which is not unusual at halving events.
Imho the real price growth may happen only when miners will not be willing anymore to sell cheap the much more hardly earned coins.
People were waiting for it to reach negative territory looking to reap on an opportunity to get massive gains once it recovers. And it will recover because the world runs its global businesses on it.
I often wonder if small companies sometimes make deliberately outlandish statements just to garner media attention. It now doesn't matter whether their analysis is right or wrong, they've got their free publicity now.
My personal opinion is that the dollar figure you place on so-called "stablecoins" is utterly meaningless because many of them likely aren't fully backed (as the centralised companies that control them would have you believe). And even if they were fully backed by real-world assets, it's still just a cheap duplication of the value of the underlying assets. You're literally trading IOUs for something that may not even exist and have to place full trust in a company that, not only does it really exist, but also that you have a genuine and tangible claim to the funds the stablecoin supposedly represents. Why would you even get involved with something that shady?
Stablecoins are a scam. One of the most ridiculous things in all of crypto.
My personal opinion is that the dollar figure you place on so-called "stablecoins" is utterly meaningless because many of them likely aren't fully backed (as the centralised companies that control them would have you believe). And even if they were fully backed by real-world assets, it's still just a cheap duplication of the value of the underlying assets. You're literally trading IOUs for something that may not even exist and have to place full trust in a company that, not only does it really exist, but also that you have a genuine and tangible claim to the funds the stablecoin supposedly represents. Why would you even get involved with something that shady?
Stablecoins are a scam. One of the most ridiculous things in all of crypto.
Stablecoins are a scam, as we have all witnessed what tether has done and is continuing to do to bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole.
They do cause massive disruptions in the price when there are a sell off and a buy back on a whim. Thus the sharp volatility swings in the crypto market ever since the concept of stablecoins came into existence.
I agree with rdbase on this, I also think 95% of the stable coin's out there are a scam with very little to no backing behind them other that "say so" and speculation. The amount of tether being printed and passed about to the exchanges is a pretty scary amount also the fact tether is not only on the bitcoin omni layer but spread out over other chain;s too means it's almost impossible to get the accurate number of tether actually in circulation.
There would be nothing to stop a malicious actor crashing the price of bitcoin the scooping up large amounts of coins with this worthless non-backed fantasy stable coin the fact these things have NEVER been audited should sound the alarm bell to everyone I fear we will see one of these stable coins effect the market in a unforeseen way in the future.
Then everyone's jaw's will hit the floor like dam.. didn't see that coming.
Hot tip.. Don't user tether for ANYTHING...
April 21, 2020, 09:22:35 AM
It might pump the crypto prices by 10% but that's all.We need tens of billions of dollars,even trillions to make Bitcoin hit the moon.3 billion US dollars isn't even worth discussing.
I would disagree that $3 billion is something that would pump the BTC price by only 10%, you slightly underestimate so much money. If someone decided to buy BTC for that amount, do you know how many coins would disappear from the market? If we divide $3 billion with $7000 = we get almost 430 000 BTC at current price. Just for comparison, total amount of mined coins in one year (12.5 BTC per block reward) is 657 000.
What we do know is that a $1 trillion market cap would currently put BTC price at $50 000 per coin, so we are just some $900 billions from that
April 21, 2020, 09:10:45 AM
The point that the article ignored is the difference between a stable coin and paper money, it is just a tool to counter the fluctuations in the price of digital currencies, but there is no real use of these currencies.
Consequently, there is no reason for all these assets to leave the market to purchase the basics. Do not forget that many platforms are falsifying exchange volumes.
Therefore, it is a mistake to consider all this money as frozen assets ready to enter the market again.
Consequently, there is no reason for all these assets to leave the market to purchase the basics. Do not forget that many platforms are falsifying exchange volumes.
Therefore, it is a mistake to consider all this money as frozen assets ready to enter the market again.
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