Topic: 3 is the magic number, and the magic number is 3 (Read 8028 times)

I get a sense that there is now inherent stability with the BTC price settled in the $3 range.

Looking at the 1 month hourly chart, one can see a steady stair-step increase in value, from $2.20 to $3.20. On that chart there are 1/2 dozen or so large spikes in volume with a .20 - .30 cent moves.

For speculators this apparent stability may not be optimal for day-trading, but for merchants and buyers it's nice to have a BTC base-price that we can rely on.

Here is a real-world example of why I like a stable bitcoin price:
The other day I was researching web sites that have online sports-betting, cause I like to bet on NFL Football. For these regular sports-book web sites, it's a real pain to sign up and get funds and they charge you outrageous fees to withdraw money. But lo and behold, there is now a bitcoin sports book. Last week it only took me 10 minutes to get setup with them, when I sent my BTC over from my trading account, and placed bets on last Sundays games. It's anonymous, there are virtually no fees to speak of, and it's instantaneous. Now having the BTC price stable in the $3 range makes worthwhile for me; but if the price is very volatile, I can't rely on that currency while I'm sports-betting. I would imagine most merchants would want a stable BTC currency before adopting it.

My 2 BTCs.

*just tripled the amount of bitcoins he holds*

Doh, of course you're correct, inflection point is when graph changes from concave-up to concave-down (or vice versa).  This is simply a change from negative slope to positive slope.

I'm seeing this also, it's showing strength and resilience to the sells.

I'm having more faith every day, and I suspect a lot of others are too..

Saw that   I pointed it out in the Nagle's Favorite Chart thread, because the chart you posted is indeed his favorite chart.  Or was... the leader of the bears seems to have disappeared

Minor nitpick: inflection point means the second derivative, not the first, has changed signs.

Nice and boring, just the way people like their currencies.

Did you notice that the 30 day moving average just passed the inflection point, and is pointing up now?  This 60 day chart (the default on bitcoincharts) is entirely between $2 and $4, too, with that huge selloff day in mid-October having dropped off the chart:



21 of last 27 days have been gains.  Everyone likes a winner... perhaps that's why the order book has been seeing such strong growth?

I'm all long again, having filled up on the way down to $3.00 a few days ago, but I don't have any sell orders placed yet.  I don't know where to put them.

$4 by Christmas, we can do it!

Not for long... going up a bit soon..

Wow, the magic number seems to be 3.2 now!  It's been here for days...

I think it is .01. Though, I have seen .00 tick on goxlive.

I've been seeing this quite frequently lately. I put blame on Gox's end. It always happens when a large movement happens with a lot of subsequent bid adjustments. Then there's the spam bot with thousands of .01BTC spot price buys/sells.

Forced liquidations?

Actually, a bit more steps happened.
Here's all the fast moves larger than ฿1000:

10:30:58 mtgox   x15 1,218.1675 @     3.17102144 USD
10:31:41 mtgox   x50 2,507.3574 @     3.15338919 USD
10:33:06 mtgox   x28 1,010.5000 @     3.14034385 USD
10:35:41 mtgox  x100 2,176.2585 @     3.11423792 USD
10:36:27 mtgox   x21 1,149.9441 @     3.10       USD
10:44:06 mtgox  x100 2,520.7054 @     3.08362834 USD
10:45:17 mtgox   x99 1,559.5521 @     3.05077617 USD
10:46:22 mtgox   x69 5,919.6702 @     3.01727388 USD
10:54:10 mtgox  x100 4,044.2884 @     3.02022366 USD
10:54:50 mtgox   x46 3,501.7343 @     3.00       USD
10:59:11 mtgox    x8 1,100.4403 @     3.00       USD

(The x100 things are how many transactions were involved.)

... and we're back to $3 again after a big selloff.  Two (or perhaps even 3) big players were involved: the first one sold off down to $3.10, then presumably the same person added moved their askwall from $3.50 to $3.10:


* Next, someone added a huge bidwall at $3.01
* Then everything from $3.10 to $3.01 was sold into
* About two minutes later, 3k btc was sold at 3.00
* And now an even larger buy wall at 3.00 (now 3.02) was created, and the ask walls disappeared
* a small ask wall was left at $3.10

So... i think a big player wants to sell more at $3.10, and is not-so-subtly setting bids & asks to make it more likely.

Some great late-night action (well, for everyone else here in PST)!

I'm telling ya, $3.00 is a strange attractor, and I think it will be for at least a few more weeks, if not months.

Also, some Mt. Gox oddness: I put in a small order at $3.00 after the drop, and it sat there "In Queue" for over 2 minutes, and never got fulfilled. 

It's the same dogshit as fiat currency. Lose wealth one way or another. Making money by siphoning it off from others for nothing productive. Yay greed, how we are slaves to thee.

I'm in the 'big looser' camp having doubled down on several big dives and never having sold a single BTC.  At the end of the day, however, I made up my mind from a fundamental foundation that I wanted secret keys which represent a positive value in the Satoshi block chain and see nothing (yet) to change the reasons for desiring this.  So the fall in value has been a real benefit to me.

I've got nothing but admiration for people who have been clever enough to have made money on the way down...and nothing but distain for people who falsely claim to have done so knowing that nobody can cross-check.   I suspect that a majority of the loud mouths here are in the latter category.

There is nothing wrong when people lose "wealth" in these times.  That is their own fault.  And props to the traders who can profit in those situations.  There are ways of making money on the way down if you know how to trade.  Also, if these people lose their BTC because of bad trades then it continues the fundamental change of ownership I talked about a few weeks ago.  Let these people quit, other people will be there to step in and take the reigns.

.... and the magic number is now 2.2?

We are now on the low side of where the market belongs, unless we have another day with 350,000 Bitcoins sold..
This day of record sales still couldn't drop the exchange as much as the last big fire sale a month ago.



Hooray for cheap bitcoins, I just turned the last of my $ into ฿ at 2.2. Now I need to sell some stuff for Bitcoins.

+1 for most of it

question is is s/he acutally in the green or has s/he himself lost in the bubble? I know that would be hard to find out - just wondering

Why do you think that there is only a manipulator manipulating one side? To successfully manipulate, you have to be working both sides. Volume doesn't mean dick. If he thinks he can get you fools to panic and sell out so he can buy cheaper coins to rinse and repeat, you are falling for the manipulation. This person or persons is siphoning money off of the economy from early adopter "wealth." Obviously he is doing a very good job of it by the misclick $250k ask that was up there for all of 3 seconds. Sure, some of you may make a few dollars in the mean time, but tens of thousands of people have lost wealth due to this shit, and are going to start giving up on this whole thing real soon. I guarantee you he will be there to crash the market and get what he can before most anyone else will.