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Topic: $30 is the new $5 (Read 2873 times)

legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
February 23, 2013, 06:59:33 PM
#31
That's why this year will be exciting Smiley We'll see whether community learned something. For example, that spiking 30x in a month is not advisable.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
February 23, 2013, 06:49:37 PM
#30
To put things in perspective, this is what was happening in february 2011. Amazingly, if you multiply by 30, it looks very familiar, even the runup is at the same levels... Then broke psychological $1, consolidated for a month or so, and nobody ever saw $1 since.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-05-24zeg2011-04-25ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

PS hope the smart guy who bought 200k coins at 0.1 is still holding. That got to be the best 20k investment ever Wink

We all know what happened in 2011. A 45% drop in the bear market followed by a 5000% rise in the bull market. So by this metric we drop to 16 USD and then climb to 800 USD.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
February 23, 2013, 06:37:52 PM
#29
To put things in perspective, this is what was happening in february 2011. Amazingly, if you multiply by 30, it looks very familiar, even the runup is at the same levels... Then broke psychological $1, consolidated for a month or so, and nobody ever saw $1 since.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-05-24zeg2011-04-25ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

PS hope the smart guy who bought 200k coins at 0.1 is still holding. That got to be the best 20k investment ever Wink
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
February 23, 2013, 01:29:43 AM
#28
so it may be even more conservative than that, 28-32 would be the trading spread for some time.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
February 22, 2013, 11:57:30 PM
#27
$33 in the third month in 2013   Cheesy

full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
February 22, 2013, 11:13:53 PM
#26
Since there is lots of people ready to buy with both hands in case of any significant retracement, my guess is that it just goes up.

It seems so. This is the definition of a bull market. Corrections are simply a matter of who can, either by skill or luck, time the correction best and buy lowest. Fear of the gap closing in is larger than any fear of a permanent drop. I feel we're actually still in this situation.

Bitcoin would need to experience negative events, bad news, or a real super bubble, to reverse this situation. That's my opinion.

Real negative events happens unpredictably, that is why it is always hard to call a top or bottom.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
February 22, 2013, 10:22:07 PM
#25
If the scaling is correct, at difficulty 2m, price reached 31 (average 15), so at difficulty 4m as it is going to be soon, price should be somewhere around 62 (average 30)
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
February 22, 2013, 04:45:48 PM
#24
No, I really think we're not going much above 30 now. *maybe* spike to 33, then back to 27-30.

This rocket is now refueling on a previous orbit, before shooting straight to the moon.

I guess that makes a half-assed bear; not willing to sell, but not believing in triple digits in March either.

Nah, still think we won't see a new all time high this year.  I think we're just now turning the corner into some much needed profit taking that will drop the price by at least 1/3.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
February 22, 2013, 04:24:42 PM
#23
No, I really think we're not going much above 30 now. *maybe* spike to 33, then back to 27-30.

This rocket is now refueling on a previous orbit, before shooting straight to the moon.

I guess that makes a half-assed bear; not willing to sell, but not believing in triple digits in March either.
hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1000
February 22, 2013, 12:19:16 PM
#22
Here's my prediction - $30 (+/- 10%) would be the new consolidation level for a month or so. Then, once everybody is comfortable and all bears burned through their remaining fat, we continue upwards.

You mean on monday ?
sr. member
Activity: 358
Merit: 250
February 22, 2013, 11:24:20 AM
#21
$31 has arrived  Grin
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
1221iZanNi5igK7oAA7AWmYjpsyjsRbLLZ
February 22, 2013, 11:15:45 AM
#20
I meant EUR (and other conventional currencies) selling off... and piling into BTC duh, which mysteriously concurs with the OP's forecast Cheesy
Ok! Sorry if it sounded like a BTC selloff. Here's to BTC being worth more than 25 EUR on April 1st!
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
1221iZanNi5igK7oAA7AWmYjpsyjsRbLLZ
February 22, 2013, 11:00:26 AM
#19
That's interesting... I read in the tea leaves that there's a lot of downward pressure on the EUR -- some "descending triangles" all suggesting a sell-off in the "end of March" ballpark.

Looks like April Fool's Day might be pretty big this year. Damn Illuminati and their ridiculous obsession with crowd-pleasing symbolism Roll Eyes ...  Cheesy
Subscribed to come back on April 1 and see how your tea leaves are doing.

Just out of curiosity, blablahblah: do you hold a position in BTC or are you all cashed out to fiat right now?
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1056
Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com
February 22, 2013, 10:56:23 AM
#18
Since there is lots of people ready to buy with both hands in case of any significant retracement, my guess is that it just goes up.

It seems so. This is the definition of a bull market. Corrections are simply a matter of who can, either by skill or luck, time the correction best and buy lowest. Fear of the gap closing in is larger than any fear of a permanent drop. I feel we're actually still in this situation.

Bitcoin would need to experience negative events, bad news, or a real super bubble, to reverse this situation. That's my opinion.
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1064
Bitcoin is antisemitic
February 22, 2013, 10:45:34 AM
#17
Since there is lots of people ready to buy with both hands in case of any significant retracement, my guess is that it just goes up.
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1056
Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com
February 22, 2013, 10:42:35 AM
#16
I don't think it will go like that. The all time high is less than 2 dollars away. It has enormous psychological effect, and it could spark a media blaze. It could get crazy sooner rather than later. We'll see I guess.
You wish.

Not really, to be honest. A big bubble would cause instability which I don't like. I'm not a trader, I'm not looking out for a bubble to profit from it. I'm interested in long term growth.

What I am doing is observing. That is my observation, nothing else.
b!z
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1010
February 22, 2013, 10:24:11 AM
#15
I don't think it will go like that. The all time high is less than 2 dollars away. It has enormous psychological effect, and it could spark a media blaze. It could get crazy sooner rather than later. We'll see I guess.

You wish.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
February 22, 2013, 10:13:55 AM
#14
100's the new 1.

Cents are the new coins.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
February 22, 2013, 09:34:18 AM
#13
I don't think it will go like that. The all time high is less than 2 dollars away. It has enormous psychological effect, and it could spark a media blaze. It could get crazy sooner rather than later. We'll see I guess.

This. The google search trend will break when this happens.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
February 22, 2013, 09:04:06 AM
#12
At $32 there will be a whole shitload of articles on Bitcoin breaking it's All Time High. There is a reasonably good chance that this will attract investors who regard this moment as Bitcoin's coming of age. Although it's never easy to predict the market, I see no reason whatsoever that the current trend upwards is going to slow down.
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