well cpi is out this week.
next fed jump is may 1-3
if we do a 0.25 again I am thinking it helps btc a lot.
Maybe 40k by may
I really hate how these CPI announcements made markets in general more volatile than usual. I'm always far less productive when I always think "
I wonder what does the macro peeps on Twitter think about the next CPI?" I'm totally aware that it's not the best way of using my time, but it's just so interesting and mildly exciting lol.
Eventually these announcements will be permanently terrible, meaning Bitcoin will be inversely effected to negative announcements about the US economy. Once the inversion completely sets in, it will almost always positively impact Bitcoin as the US economy continues to hit negative road bumps. Then eventually, the US Dollar will be so weak that the announcements will barely effect the volatility of Bitcoin.
As far as I understand - though I'm not expert with these CPI or rate announcements - then the CPI numbers weren't that bad at all, better than expected:
Prices rose 5% for the 12 months ended in March, down from 6% in February. It's the smallest 12-month increase since May 2021. On a monthly basis, CPI, which measures price changes over time for a basket of goods, ticked up 0.1% from February, as compared to a previous 0.4% increase.
In response, Bitcoin's price hasn't really moved (at least not yet) and remains around $30K, despite the news being considered bullish for the economy. While I think that negative US economy news can be good for Bitcoin, at the moment it doesn't seem all that related anymore as Bitcoin loses it's correlation to stock markets and begins to follow Gold. I don't think we need to bet on a weak US economy basically.
I'm also not convinced the US economy will get that much worse though. Generally we have seen improvement over inflation numbers in recent months, so it gives me the impression that if a recession was going to happen it would have started already. We've had the classic bankruptcies from major banks, followed by bank runs, similar to 2008, but this hasn't led to a domino effect or collapse as it were.
Even the stock markets generally have remained relatively stable since May last year, over 9 months now, generally moving sideways or with slight recoveries. It's not usual to see this much confidence in these economies for so long while there is the fear of an impending recession. Many also anticipated a recession would begin by Q1 this year, and so far these worst case scenarios have been avoided.