Topic: $3.20 in one big buy? - page 3. (Read 6291 times)

After this enormous weekend rally, I can see $4 from my house!

By saying "this is only confirmed when we pass the $3.8 - $4" shows me that you don't know what you are talking about, passing 4 dollars doesn't mean that it will will go higher. Fact. It means it could go higher as well as the way I see it, that it will go back to low 2 dollars. 3.34 x 7200 equals 24 000 USD. That is a pretty high number to sustain, then imagine that it will go to 5 dollars, that is over 35 000 USD that will need to go in to the Bitcoin Economy each day. Not possible with the fundamentals today. The reality is that this is most likely a bull trap.

You are incorrect. I was wrong for a time which cost me some money but I basically got it all back during the decline from $8 to $2. During that time my understanding of the market has improved massively and ever since I've been right most of the time.

I don't like calling prices for a specified timeframe, especially not now. Even if I'm seeing signs of a reversal, it's is only confirmed when we pass the $3.8 - $4 area. Before that happens I simply think going back to $2 is unlikely, not impossible. We could still be bouncing between $2 and $4 for a while longer.

But what I do believe in is that Bitcoin is here to stay which means that sooner or later, most likely sooner, the transaction counts start going up again and then prices below $3 are history. When this happens exactly is hard to say but both the price and the transaction counts are showing signs of a reversal. Signs are just signs though, it's the same as hearing rumors about something. We need more to confirm it.

My take on the analysis in this thread is that it's clueless. What we're seeing are further signs of a reversal and right now we are seeing more and more bear traps going off. A longer term reversal can only be called after we break $3.8 and $4 though but that happening will not cause a drop to $2 (a ridiculous idea) but it will in fact multiply the demand from the players who follow trends. And many do.

A drop to $2 in any near future is getting more and more unlikely at this point and if we pass $3.8 I'm willing to bet that it's not going to happen for a very long time at least. My own take on the situation is that it's only a matter of time when we don't see prices under $3 anymore. The buying opportunities at those prices are close to over. If not yet, then definitely soon.

The whole talk about manipulators playing games is irrelevant. What we are seeing is more and more small and big players changing back to a buying long strategy which will make any price crashes that much more difficult. Players with a long strategy are in no hurry to sell. Not going to sell at $3.5 and not going to sell at $4 either. Miners holding bitcoins are investors as well and not all of them are going to mass sell at $4, some of them are investing for long term because they see the possibility of further price increase.

Most fundamentals support the current market behaviour strongly. We are seeing a surge of activity in the Bitcoin community, everyone is doing something to improve Bitcoin. We've recently had the best media coverage in the history of Bitcoin. We obviously had much more media coverage during the summer, but a high percentage of that coverage was focused on the massive percentage gains in Bitcoin price. Now we're finally getting some coverage that is positive in some other way than as a speculation vehicle. And we've basically had no bad news which is one reason why the coverage has been so good.

One of the strongest fundamentals in my book, the transaction count, is looking more and more like it's making a reversal. Here is the chart for both raw values and 7 day average, look at it: http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions & http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false×pan=&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

Bottom line is that unless the transactions go back into decline mode, the price will not go back to decline mode either. And I have a really hard time seeing that happening, Bitcoin is the most important invention of 21st century so far. At this time it's hard for me to see how the usage of Bitcoin is going down, I see it going up tremendously during 2012.

The peak transaction counts for 2011 will be broken and the one thing I know for sure is that when that happens people will regret that they didn't buy more coins when we were at the bottom. Even I will regret it because I only have the guts to invest a relatively small amount of my wealth to bitcoins.

the liquidity spigots have been thrown wide open by 6 central banks at once this past week.  where is all this money going to go? 

answer:  Speculation

Someone/the manipulator/the cartel is manipulating this market hard right now, the only way they will succeed is if they will get the dumb money with them is this rally. One big sell off from someone and they are down with their pants.

Big orders are replaced and put in, the bots don't know how to act.

ramping.  another short squeeze in progress.

A light version of option 2 is right now happening, lets see how much dumb money that will fall for this by holding their bitcoins at this levels or even buying. Miners will get very happy the nearest weeks.

3.3 now

One of the best ways to see a accurate interest right now is to look at google trends.

One picture with a lot of information:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Bitcoin

This spike is almost finished get ready for the smackdown.

Read post #25. My conclusion is that it will hit 2 dollars again. Depending on the way the market wants it, it will take less or more time. Before it was easier to see the patterns with Price and Time. Now it is very hard to see Time, but it is still possible to give a future accurate estimate for the Price.

I see one more run up where we decide if it's a double top or we want to go further.  This dip to 3.17 has given a little breathing room before the decision will be played out.

Market reversing now, get out now, buy back at 2.9

So fastandfurious, what's the market going to do from here?

I am one of few that have made money on Bitcoin after the crash, not filthy rich on Bitcoins, but I haven't lost money.

Before Bitcoinica was around, this is just one of my earlier posts written when the price was at 10 dollars in August.

"To the Bitcoin community, I want to short sell 3 000 bitcoins, and I will pay 5 % interest per month on the loan. I have my money in Mt.Gox that covers all the loan (hackers f*ck off nothing to get here, I have a Yubikey). I want to make this a secure deal for both parts. I know that there are people in here that don't want to sell, you can make money now.

5 % interest per month gives a annual rate at over 79 %. That is really good terms. I would like to be able to hold it for at least 2 months, and also have the option to close the position before hand.

If anyone is interested, tell me how we can do this in a secure way. Maybe I can contact Mt.Gox and they can take care of it. We really need the opportunity to short sell Bitcoins, it have many benefits, for example more liquidity, people can make money on their bitcoins if they don't want to sell."

If they where real investors with an intelligent brain, their mission should be to accumulated as many bitcoins as possible for the more normal inflation environment that will come Dec 2012 (that can't get manipulated by the miners). Not give away money to the miners today. This shows me why they probably lost money in the first place, they are to greedy and don't get the whole picture.

Wow, you must be filthy rich by now.