Chesthing, you do realize that in order for Bitcoin to still be a thing (i.e., major world cryptocurrency) now and into the future (5, 10, 20, 50+ years), forever moving forward, that not only will people need to buy it now, but they'll need to continuing buying bitcoin at any price, whatever exchange rate it is at atm? You do get that, right?? Even at $20K+/btc, people like you and me will still need to be buying, holding, and using bitcoin every single day.
But who says BTC is going to be a 'thing'?
Thanks partially to Bitcoin's history of artificial megapumps (this current one included), Bitcoin got way ahead of itself, and is now bloated and slow, and a nightmare to use for the purpose it was intended. In the past week, I twice tried to pay for my Trading View yearly subscription with Bitcoin. Twice, it failed. Once, due to Bitcoin's and Coinbase's clunky interface (I 'underpaid by a 0.0005 BTC, and this was too complex a problem for the system to deal with), the second time due to the network not dealing with the transaction before Coinbase's payment window timed out. In the end, I just fucking paid with PayPal.
I don't know a lot about the technical side of Bitcoin or crypto, but those who do know a bit about it (when they desribe it, my eyes just glaze over), suggest to me that Bitcoin might be in a spot of trouble some time post the halving. It is reckoned that a combination of the immense power demands, and the inability for the organic demand of the market to consistently pay a Bitcoin price which meets the minimum cost of production for many miners, will force those miners to switch off, as KnC have recently done, citing a minimum cost of production of $450 per BTC, as the grounds for their bankcruptcy. This in turn will seriously affect the already slow and overloaded network efficiency, which in turn will seriously affect investor's view of Bitcoin's viability as being thee major crypto currency.
Fwiw, one of those who seriously doubt Bitcoin's long term viablility, also believes that Bitcoin could just be on the verge of getting pumped well up into the low 4 figure digits (he believes that miners need to shoot for a min Bitcoin price of $1000, in order to keep the whole thing running). I don't know about that so much, but what I do know, is that the miner's who are engineering this pump, are doing so with the ultimate intend of engineering a great big burst of FOMO buying from the public, into which they hope to be dumping the literally tens of thousands of BTC they have been witholding from the market, in anticipation of this Halving Event. Of course, pumping a market in order to slaughter the public who inevitably like to come stampeding in at the last minute, is easier said than done, otherwise 'we would all be doing it'. It could well be, that the current economic/market climate, just isn't the right time to be pumping any high risk speculative asset. Equities across the globe are entering into a clear downturn. People like to argue that Bitcoin is a safe haven asset which trades inversely to stocks, but if u look at a Bitcoin/US equities chart for the past year, those two have traded in harmony, not inversely. On the otherhand, if the PBOC significantly devalue the Renminbi against the USD, then the Bitcoin Cowboys may get their FOMO public stampede pump after all......
......whatever the case turns out to be and whatever the ultimate upside target is, the only guarantee is that it will all end with a massive dump (hoarded miner BTC will ensure this), followed by a brutal crash driven by the same old FOMO buyers turning to full on despair mode.........and then we will see whether Bitcoin can maintain a high enough price to avoid half the network being switched off.