Topic: 3600 bitcoins dumped everyday = bearish brainwash propoganda (Read 1728 times)

What you say here basically boils down everything to risk factor. If bitcoin can generate 25% intrinsic return which is nonetheless confirmed, then miners would definitely hold on to their coins. However, nobody can guarantee that and hence in order to eliminate risk, they would sell. And talk about selling I don't think they dump all their coins all at one shot. Surely the right strategy would be to sell a portion and another portion to continue to hold on to it

Cloud mining sites just distribute the excess bitcoins. So apart from what is required to cover costs, nothing is sold immediately. Of course, individuals might decided to dispose off bitcoins that they receive.

-industrial mining needs pay bills. In a bearmarket they will look to get rid of the coins ASAP ... ask them

- every coin mined will be sold sooner or later

-a coin mined today may not dump on the market today but next year. While today coins mined months ago may dump. So in average it should be 3600 coins a day so your thread is actually pointless bullpropaganda

Same here. When you mine you also speculate, it comes with the package. I'm also still holding the majority of the coins I have mined. As fear and despair sets in miners are affected as well so they will add to the selling pressure, but this dries up again as soon as the reversal becomes evident and miners will massively hold their coins waiting for higher prices. What percentage of mined coins are sold during bull markets and bear markets is a question we can only speculate about, I think it's less than 5% during bull markets and maybe around 30-40% during bear markets. Maybe these numbers are wrong but whatever nobody really knows.

I bought mining HW on the speculation that I could mine more BTC than I could buy for the same money.  I held the majority of my mined BTC on the speculation that they will go up in value over time.

Having been mining since the beginning of 2012, my speculations have paid off extremely handsomely.

Really interesting analysis here, I hadn't considered the runup to $266 as part of a bigger cycle before.  I do like the sound of those future implications!

Bitcoin mining has become a skinny business. Miners have to sell to pay their costs. Cex.io just dropped out of mining because they were losing money on it.

Mining and speculation are different businesses. The same party can do both, but you have to account for them separately.

This is a likely scenario imo. Wall Street will want Bitcoin price as low as possible when the etf is approved, so their "invisible hand" is working now driving the price down.

You seem to think the bitcoin price is related to mining costs. You are mistaken.

1 million dollars is just a number you plucked out of the air, right?

At least with lambtroll there is a facade of intelligence, recent trolls are thick as pigshit. Good luck shorting!

If you really think the price is going to go back up, then don't you necessarily have to assume that (nearly) all the miners have been selling. I do.

Isn't the whole point, that the last 12 month decline was due to loss of confidence, fear in the market and was exacerbated by selling pressure from miners, who believe it is more beneficial to cash out BTC now than hold for a lower price.

For an epic rally to begin (and I'm not saying it will) wouldn't it require, firstly, capitulation. This final selloff from those in the grips of despair would result in sales drying up. Price stabilises, which causes a gradual increase in confidence. Any small increase in buying starts to naturally eat up supply, the gradually increasing price, means more dollars are needed to buy the same BTC so this delicate equilibrium will move along, but as it tends upwards it reveals an underlying increase in money moving into the market.

As the price rises, miners must then start to consider holding for better prices. This results in a diminishing supply being chased by a gradually increasing amount of dollars...

This sounds familiar, but of course in no way should you expect it. Its just one possible scenario.

I think that what I describe above is the start of a full cycle, which culminates in exponential growth with blowoff top and then prolonged bear market.

We've just been through a full cycle, and I think that although there have been a few other ATH only one of them was the culmination of a full cycle.

I don't think the rise to 266 and crash to 60 was a cycle in its own right, but just a temporary correction during the entire cycle we've been through

I see this as the first cycle:

$0.60 -> $32

there was a mini run up to ~15 and a correction to ~8 early in the cycle

$5 -> $1200  

the run up to 266 and correction to 60 is similar to the smaller move in the previous cycle

both of these cycles had a discernible 'bear market' following the blow off, both had an aborted launch followed by major exponential growth culminating in a price collapse.

I can imagine that this kind of price action is almost inevitable result of human behaviour/emotion, and that its not unreasonable to think that we'll see the same kind of cycle unfold again - the now infamous 560k prediction post touches on this idea of repeated boom/bust cycles during the course of adoption.

I think its a mistake to try and predict the actual prices for the purposes of trying to trade them, but its a fun exercise to think about the size of the moves one could expect should we see another similar market cycle, so with that in mind lets go ahead and extrapolate:

$0.6 -> 32 : 53x
$5 -> 1200 : 240x

If we take the current price of around $200 as being a stable platform for luanch (yes I am choosing these words on purpose )

We take our worst case scenario is being x53 multiplier, a middle ground of 146x and a best case a repeat of the 240x move we see these potential new ATH's:

53x => $10,600
146x =>$29,200
240x => $48,000

Looks like my 5k bet is pretty conservative by those figures!

Now I'm not one to shy away from considering outlandish numbers, so lets imagine for a moment that as the length of the cycle increases then so the magnitude of the move also increases. if we do the most basic linear extrapolation, the first move was x53 the second was x240 so the third must be x1087

Now that gives us $217k. A figure I'm sure that the trollers will all be delighted with as they undoubtedly all actually hold BTC. I ain't even mad. How could I be. At that price I might finally be able to afford that porsche I've been after.

Fire away trolltards, should be plenty of easy pickings in this post

I agree with you, there's lots of brainwashing attempts on both Bears and Bulls. Bears just seem to be way more prominent now. Best not to take a bullish or bearish stance with Bitcoin and see the market for what it is.

Do you have any links to what you based your guesstimate from or did you merely make up the figures?

I just want to stop their stupid brainwashing propaganda by doing a little guesstimate. The sentence of "3600 coins are dumped everyday" appears in all threads when bears are out of reasoning ammo. It is so boring to see this sentence 10 times each day.

At least, bears should spend some time and invent some new propaganda to amaze us?

Notlampchop is doing a good job. He found out so many interesting old time Chinese posters and translate them into English. That is some solid propaganda work than "3600 coins are dumped everyday".

It doesn't matter if they dump them. Today's prices would put it at about $700,000 a day needed to absorb those coins dumped. We have currently $17million daily volume. The price is really dependent on whether the other $16mil a day is red or green. The daily supply increase is a small portion.

I dont understand people that get into the mining business without any plans on saving at least 10%, so if it goes down you still have a ton on your reserves.

Congratulations, you have earned troll status.

5% perma-bear miners? I think you can safely say that's way over 50%
I personally don't know any miners that keep their btc or part of it...

^ Still ROLMAO!  Thanks for that, you're so entertaining!!

I have no position at all, so whatever happens now doesn't affect me.

that being said, to me, bitcoin looks like a slow motion train wreck.

there are a tons of longs in the 70 to 120 ranges, who have not yet felt the heat, that time is coming, soon...... if they capitulate (and they will), this will get very nasty.

when would I go long BTC? if bitcoin is under $100 and winkle ETF is approved (the lower the better on approval notice). Do I think this will happen? maybe 5% chance imo.

I will say 95% miners will do calculation before the selling. Don't expect mine managers to be as stupid as you to "just sell immediately", because they are not dealing with a consumer product that has stable pricing, but instead are dealing with an asset that has volatile pricing.

Market timing, risk/reward ratio and cost/profit analysis are always considered by miners. Buying, holding and selling are the three options laying on the mine managers' desks.

If oversimplifying is all your bears can do, I can only say bears are NOT that shrewd as they pretend to be.