Topic: 37% difficulty increase (55590 to 76193) - page 2. (Read 5683 times)
I just remember that everything goes in a cycle, and whatever spikes will drop. The difficulty spiked, so it will drop eventually. And I'm not mining for the money, it's just a nice benefit.
I simply calculate it by multiplying the share price, by the number of shares per hour i submit on average (doesn't change much).
0.00058 * 250 = 0.148 BTC/hour
The previous number was very accurate for me using that method, and this number is accurate so far, also.
0.00058 * 250 = 0.148 BTC/hour
The previous number was very accurate for me using that method, and this number is accurate so far, also.
why so complicated?
i would say, it isn't a good idea anyway to base your average expectations on the number of blocks a given pool found a few days/weeks back, but rather on your hashrate, the pools comissions and the current difficulty.
at 10Mhash/s you'll need an average of 9090.5hours to create a block,
let's just say the pool takes 3% and due to network-overhead/-connectivity and invalid or stale hashes you lose another 2%,
then you'll need 9090.5hours to create 47.5BTC on the pool, that's what you can and should expect on average.
10M: 47.5/9090.5 = 0.00522BTC/hour or 0.125BTC/day
i would say, it isn't a good idea anyway to base your average expectations on the number of blocks a given pool found a few days/weeks back, but rather on your hashrate, the pools comissions and the current difficulty.
at 10Mhash/s you'll need an average of 9090.5hours to create a block,
let's just say the pool takes 3% and due to network-overhead/-connectivity and invalid or stale hashes you lose another 2%,
then you'll need 9090.5hours to create 47.5BTC on the pool, that's what you can and should expect on average.
10M: 47.5/9090.5 = 0.00522BTC/hour or 0.125BTC/day
Mhash/s Estimated Hourly Payout Estimated Average Daily Payout
300 0.06804 1.63296
I think something is wrong here. I calculated and tested on the course of a week; my average was 0.2 BTC per hour, with the new difficulty it's 0.145 per hour. Your averages are too low for some reason.300 0.06804 1.63296
I was thinking something was off, but the numbers bore out. Maybe I was just at an unlucky patch when I took my readings. My average was .2/hour before the difficulty change.
So, I'm going to do the math out here, and maybe we can see where I went wrong.
Statistics taken from mining.bitcoin.cz.
Quote
Blocks 1841-1865 = 24 blocks = 1200 BTC payout
Total shares of those blocks = 1,989,659 shares
BTC/share = 6.0311842381031121413267298567242e-4, or .0006/share (rounded)
Total shares of those blocks = 1,989,659 shares
BTC/share = 6.0311842381031121413267298567242e-4, or .0006/share (rounded)
So far it seems that the value is holding the same, and there isn't enough blocks with the new difficulty to throw the averages off yet. Or maybe the average will always be the same, but the rate that shares will be found by the same miner will be slower.
Quote
Current Round Duration: 0:23:18
Shares Found: 105
Hash rate: 310Mhash/s.
So, If I multiply 105 by 3, I should get a number that is close to what I should expect each hour at the current difficulty.
Shares Found: 105
Hash rate: 310Mhash/s.
So, If I multiply 105 by 3, I should get a number that is close to what I should expect each hour at the current difficulty.
This is where my problem was - I used the rate of share discovery from a block with the new difficulty to figure out averages in the old difficulty. Since the share rate is slower with the new difficulty, the payout looks lower.
So, my payout previously was about .2/hour. With a 37% difficulty increase I expect it to be .126/hour. With that (rounded to 4 decimals)...
10Mhash/s - .0042/hour - .1008/day
20Mhash/s - .0084/hour - .2016/day
100Mhash/s - .042/hour - 1.008/day
300Mhahs/s - .126/hour - 3.024/day
500Mhahs/s - .21/hour - 5.041/day
That looks more accurate to me. Same with everybody else?
Mhash/s Estimated Hourly Payout Estimated Average Daily Payout
300 0.06804 1.63296
I think something is wrong here. I calculated and tested on the course of a week; my average was 0.2 BTC per hour, with the new difficulty it's 0.145 per hour. Your averages are too low for some reason. 300 0.06804 1.63296
Just a bit of information I came up with while talking with a friend of mine today. Based on the last blocks found by slush's pool that fit on my screen at one time (I think it was 15), the value of a share was .0006 BTC. (Since the score based model evens out over time to match the share based, I think it's fine to talk about the value of a share.) That means that the new value of a share will be about .000378 BTC.
My miner does 300-310Mhash/s, and found 469 shares in 2 hours, which is average for me. This is 3-4 shares per minute. At 100 Mhash/s, you should expect 1 share/min. You can use this as a way to see how many BTC you can expect to mine. Here's the table I made to share with my friend, hope I did the math right, and hopefully somebody can use this to see if it's worth it to them to mine.
Mhash/s Estimated Hourly Payout Estimated Average Daily Payout
10 0.002268 0.054432
20 0.004536 0.108864
100 0.02268 0.54432
300 0.06804 1.63296
500 0.1134 2.7216
My miner does 300-310Mhash/s, and found 469 shares in 2 hours, which is average for me. This is 3-4 shares per minute. At 100 Mhash/s, you should expect 1 share/min. You can use this as a way to see how many BTC you can expect to mine. Here's the table I made to share with my friend, hope I did the math right, and hopefully somebody can use this to see if it's worth it to them to mine.
Mhash/s Estimated Hourly Payout Estimated Average Daily Payout
10 0.002268 0.054432
20 0.004536 0.108864
100 0.02268 0.54432
300 0.06804 1.63296
500 0.1134 2.7216
Difficulty History
Q: Is there a replacement for the dead link . "http://nullvoid.org/bitcoin/difficultiez.php" ?
I bet it will drop once summer kicks in,
Q: Is there a replacement for the dead link . "http://nullvoid.org/bitcoin/difficultiez.php" ?
I bet it will drop once summer kicks in,
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