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Topic: 376 918 Btc down to $1 (Read 3697 times)

donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
August 26, 2012, 06:18:52 AM
#29
Intersango-GBP is often better than MtGox-GBP. Sometimes MtGox USD is better even with the conversion rate but not always.

The truth is that MtGox-USD accounts for less than 50% of the whole market.

I think maybe part of the USD market on gox is "cross-posted" to the other currency markets?

I overlayed the 2 orderbooks (EUR, USD). Look how similar the ask-side is comparing USD and EUR markets:



That can't be a coincidence.

EDIT: magicaltux just cleared this up:

Quote from: #mtgox
are the different currency markets on mtGox really _one_ market? In the sense that orders are being "cross-posted"?
molecular: orders are cross posted with an extra 2.5%
it's automatic and without delay

Sure they do. However volume is not calculated by looking at the order book, but at the traded volume. The extra 2.5% (any %) means order are matched preferably in the same market and then in a different one only if arbitrage is possible. This happens anyway between MtGox and other exchanges thanks to arbitrage bots. Which guarantees that the proportion of traded volumes almost perfectly matches the proportions of liquidity in every different market.

The most share MtGox ever had is what they advertise in their site (around 80% in the peak of the bubble last year, July 2011). Since then they've lost share and now they are somewhere around 40%-60%.

The whole point being that there are no less than 600-700K BTC until 1$, maybe a lot more, and the only way you can create a drop below that is by inducing panic sales and thus the collaboration of a significant number of players.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 26, 2012, 02:18:12 AM
#28
Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets


like how many bitcoin would it take to push it all the way to 1$ on the Canadian market... a lot at 1$ bitcoin everyone I know wants to buy  Tongue


gox is the leading market, the others follow. Trying to do anything but arbitrage and normal buying and selling on other markets is futile. The other markets exist because they deliver niche or localized features, but gox is the market that determines the price.

+1 on the orderbook not telling the true story, however.


Intersango-GBP is often better than MtGox-GBP. Sometimes MtGox USD is better even with the conversion rate but not always.

The truth is that MtGox-USD accounts for less than 50% of the whole market.

I think maybe part of the USD market on gox is "cross-posted" to the other currency markets?

I overlayed the 2 orderbooks (EUR, USD). Look how similar the ask-side is comparing USD and EUR markets:



That can't be a coincidence.

EDIT: magicaltux just cleared this up:

Quote from: #mtgox
are the different currency markets on mtGox really _one_ market? In the sense that orders are being "cross-posted"?
molecular: orders are cross posted with an extra 2.5%
it's automatic and without delay
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
August 25, 2012, 05:41:48 PM
#27
Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets


like how many bitcoin would it take to push it all the way to 1$ on the Canadian market... a lot at 1$ bitcoin everyone I know wants to buy  Tongue


gox is the leading market, the others follow. Trying to do anything but arbitrage and normal buying and selling on other markets is futile. The other markets exist because they deliver niche or localized features, but gox is the market that determines the price.

+1 on the orderbook not telling the true story, however.


Intersango-GBP is often better than MtGox-GBP. Sometimes MtGox USD is better even with the conversion rate but not always.

The truth is that MtGox-USD accounts for less than 50% of the whole market.
hero member
Activity: 523
Merit: 500
August 25, 2012, 04:55:28 PM
#26
With the sheer amount of people waiting for just such this situation do you really think people will have time to panic sell?

The price will drop and bounce back faster than you can click the buy button. Grin

Just like it did last year with the drop from 31 to 2. It went back up in no time.

donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 25, 2012, 04:53:37 PM
#25
Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets


like how many bitcoin would it take to push it all the way to 1$ on the Canadian market... a lot at 1$ bitcoin everyone I know wants to buy  Tongue


gox is the leading market, the others follow. Trying to do anything but arbitrage and normal buying and selling on other markets is futile. The other markets exist because they deliver niche or localized features, but gox is the market that determines the price.

+1 on the orderbook not telling the true story, however.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 25, 2012, 03:43:20 PM
#24
Last time I checked I get a better deal sending Euros to Mtgox and letting them charge me a conversion fee to USD than dealing on the BTC/EUR market. Until that is settled I'd think of BTC/USD as roughly equivalent to the whole market.

Back on topic: Yeah somebody dumping that a shitload of coins is simply out of the question.
It might be possible to have a major dump down the road if we get into a prolonged downtrend like last year, but I wouldn't bet on it.
sr. member
Activity: 457
Merit: 250
Look for the bear necessities!!
August 25, 2012, 03:21:39 PM
#23
That would be a quick way to lose a couple million
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
August 25, 2012, 02:51:59 PM
#22
Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets



+ lots of bots don't place stuff in the orderbook until they have resolved to operate. Lots of people also keep balance outside of the orderbook and wait.
sr. member
Activity: 812
Merit: 250
A Blockchain Mobile Operator With Token Rewards
August 25, 2012, 02:50:15 PM
#21
Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.

MtGox-USD is a huge market
but their are many other markets
MtGox-USD is seeing more and more volume
and so are all the other markets


like how many bitcoin would it take to push it all the way to 1$ on the Canadian market... a lot at 1$ bitcoin everyone I know wants to buy  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 25, 2012, 02:32:03 PM
#20
Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.

I bet it does. And it will remain that way until there is a plausible scenario to think otherwise.
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1000
August 25, 2012, 02:28:34 PM
#19
Time and again I'm reading people thinking MtGox-USD is the only market, and assuming there is no liquidity outside of the orderbook.

Getting tedious already.
full member
Activity: 185
Merit: 100
August 25, 2012, 02:09:09 PM
#18
Houston we have a sockpuppet.
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
August 25, 2012, 12:00:29 PM
#17
All it takes is 376,918 Btc to push price down to $1.25.
Below $1 is just panic.


If someone with 370,000 Bitcoin really wants to cash out, why not sell 3000 every day for $10 instead of driving the price down to $1. He would loose $1.5 Million doing so. Just for the satisfaction to be the guy who drove Bitcoin to $1? What use would it be? People would figure out what happened and price would be back over $5 within days.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1004
Firstbits: 1pirata
August 25, 2012, 10:26:10 AM
#16
If he sells so many bitcoin and btc go down to 1$, i'll buy as more as possible!

+1 waiting forward to it
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1008
If you want to walk on water, get out of the boat
August 25, 2012, 10:24:09 AM
#15
If he sells so many bitcoin and btc go down to 1$, i'll buy as more as possible!
legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1004
August 25, 2012, 08:46:51 AM
#14
All it takes is 376,918 Btc to push price down to $1.25.
Below $1 is just panic.

What if Pirateat40 does just that.
What if that is in his interest to do so?
Maybe he is working on a competitor to Bitcoin ie another micropayment system or payment company.

That would mean he would get plenty of dollars. Now he can buy all those cheap < $1 Bitcoins.
And thus give his interest rate with Bitcoins back to those who invested.
That would also mean he would kept his promise get rich doing so and make Bitcoin look like a joke.

If pirate had that many coins the best thing would be for him to pay those coins back or (just for him) run with them.  He might bring the price of coin down to $3 but money on the side buying would slow him down greatly.  It would cost more for him to buy the coins back then when he started. 
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
August 25, 2012, 07:48:47 AM
#13
All it takes is 376,918 Btc to push price down to $1.25.
Below $1 is just panic.

What if Pirateat40 does just that.
What if that is in his interest to do so?
Maybe he is working on a competitor to Bitcoin ie another micropayment system or payment company.

That would mean he would get plenty of dollars. Now he can buy all those cheap < $1 Bitcoins.
And thus give his interest rate with Bitcoins back to those who invested.
That would also mean he would kept his promise get rich doing so and make Bitcoin look like a joke.







Interestingly, that's about as high as I've ever seen the depth to $1.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1000
I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...
August 25, 2012, 07:33:35 AM
#12
With the sheer amount of people waiting for just such this situation do you really think people will have time to panic sell?

The price will drop and bounce back faster than you can click the buy button. Grin
newbie
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
August 25, 2012, 07:21:15 AM
#11
Will people stop with that nonsense and especially pirate already? He is probably thinking more about what to eat for lunch than how to pay back the money. And this "sell down to 1.5$ then the price will fall in panic" is also kinda ridiculous. There even has been a thread about it like one day ago.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016
Strength in numbers
August 25, 2012, 06:15:25 AM
#10
All it takes is 376,918 Btc to push price down to $1.25.
Below $1 is just panic.

What if Pirateat40 does just that.
What if that is in his interest to do so?
Maybe he is working on a competitor to Bitcoin ie another micropayment system or payment company.

That would mean he would get plenty of dollars. Now he can buy all those cheap < $1 Bitcoins.

No he cant. Just like selling 400K bitcoins would crash the price, buying back >400K coins will cause a price jump like we've never seen.


What cheap <$1 bitcoins? The ones he's selling? He's going to rack 'em up by buying from himself?
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