In the UK lots of people have fitted solar panels to their roofs, this gives then free electricity and a pay back from the national grid so they can probably run miners at zero electricity cost. With zero power costs mining makes perfect sense, even at these increased difficulty rates.
The second point seems to be the big gamble, currently mining is making small returns and then only with the right equipment, but then Bitcoins (BTC) are trading at $605 each, now if BTC prices increase rapidly, as we have already seen, then people mining will make a killing. It is important to remember that once the price goes up it is too late to purchase any equipment as by the time you get it the price may well have gone down again.
To your above point that is my issue. I see it different then above..IF I can buy coin at $605 now and hold it and my only costs is (in usa for buying coin) is 20% on capital gains if I sell it...well even if $$$ to BTC prices increase rapidly..you still would be better off buying the coin as an example..I think when I ordered my miner in JULY 1st (knc 550gh jupiter) the price of coin according to coinbase was $91.70 usd...now on my jupiter i expect end of life for it to make me ALMOST../HOPEFULLY exactly 50 btc... that same $7,131.80 usd for the unit say $7500 with the external corsair power supply ...menards table ..some small fans etc
so $7500.00 usd directly to coin would have gotten me at $91.70 (
www.coinbase.com charts) 81.78844056706652 BTC
now I'm in a different kettle of fish US miner..and had troubles (bank messed up 6x bank order set off alarms had to prove I was legit
thus had to be a bitcoin biz and show them tax forms) anyway in USA with 2013 IRS guidelines I pay 25% on income from mining like any other income I make (sucks...damn did not stay hidden till laws are tweaked) but on the other hand I can depreciate equipment..thus
I have equip this year as well for equip depreciation reasons ..but for a normal miner in the usa ...it makes no sense to mine if they are gonna tax you 25% on what you make mining (part of your gross income ie 25% soc sec fed state tax etc) and again you have to hold the coin for 1 year and 1 day (they consider it land) or 46% capital gains tax..and if more then a year you guessed it 20% capital gains tax just like you bought the coin direct
so even outside usa ....makes sense just to buy the coin direct..there may be a 'lag' where you would make more coin...but that fades imho...this miner is gonna have a hard time plunking 7500 bucks down for a miner next year that will make probably End of Life (fall 2015) say 9 coin before elec etc ..even if coin is 1k or 2k still seems too much of a chance to take with difficulty rising esp by then
again ... my situation is different ...but even I'm pretty modest this year on equip and next year will be more so..if not for my situation i'd simply make modest amounts buy on
www.coinbase.com and hold....btc price has to follow difficulty and equip costs up or the whole thing goes plunk btc world in imho (i suppose it could just go sideways for a while) but still....I think I'm out of the running as a serious home miner by middle of 2015 at best
Searing