[4+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); Overt AsicBoost; World First Mining Pool - page 416.

PostMixer

newbie

Activity: 53

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 04:49:07 PM

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:48:00 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 04:29:16 AM

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:36:09 AM

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means Huh

Thanks

The RESULT is the Erlang distribution cumulative distribution function. From Wikipedia, the CDF "is the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed".

In this case results refer to the lower tail probability, so given a value of 0.5105 this means that there is a probability of 0.5105 of observing actual shares/expected shares of 0.9937 or less.

In other words: If you did the same thing for one hundred other group of 30 blocks, you'd get better luck 51.05% of the time (and worse luck 49.95% of the time).

So the 30 blocks that you tested were very very close to perfectly neutral luck.

Well again Organofcorti, thank you for that! It's the most tangible explanation I have seen to date regarding the pool "luck". I hope others grasp this as well and realize that things seem pretty neutral. I know it sucks to have these LONG blocks, but I do think it's right in line with the "luck" of this pool overtime. Translation, I don't think there is any monkey business going on behind the curtain Grin

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:48:00 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 04:29:16 AM

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:36:09 AM

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means Huh

Thanks

The "RESULT" is the Erlang distribution cumulative distribution function p-value. From Wikipedia, the CDF "is the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed".

In this case results refer to the lower tail probability, so given a value of 0.5105 this means that there is a probability of 0.5105 of observing actual shares/expected shares of 0.9937 or less.

In other words: If you did the same thing for one hundred other group of 30 blocks, you'd get better luck 51.05% of the time (and worse luck 49.95% of the time).

So the 30 blocks that you tested were very close to perfectly neutral luck.

Benjy_Bronk

newbie

Activity: 37

Merit: 0

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:48:00 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 04:29:16 AM

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:36:09 AM

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means Huh

Thanks

If you convert the numbers to letters it spells out,,,,,,

Be sure to drink your Ovaltine

PostMixer

newbie

Activity: 53

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 04:29:16 AM

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:36:09 AM

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means Huh

Thanks

cr1776

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 1313

Quote from: manubar82 on February 11, 2014, 01:25:29 PM

Quote from: bspurloc on February 11, 2014, 11:50:08 AM

Quote from: necro_nemesis on February 10, 2014, 08:24:27 PM

Quote from: morrisford on February 10, 2014, 06:21:59 PM

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data

I have to ask: do you get any kind of "Bonus" when your hardware finds a Block? Or the usual reward you would get for participating?

It depends on the pool. With Slush, no bonus. Other pools have different rules - p2pool pays a 0.5% bonus to the person who finds the block.

Trongersoll

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 501

Quote from: manubar82 on February 11, 2014, 01:25:29 PM

Quote from: bspurloc on February 11, 2014, 11:50:08 AM

Quote from: necro_nemesis on February 10, 2014, 08:24:27 PM

Quote from: morrisford on February 10, 2014, 06:21:59 PM

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data

I have to ask: do you get any kind of "Bonus" when your hardware finds a Block? Or the usual reward you would get for participating?

usual reward, no bonus

manubar82

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Quote from: bspurloc on February 11, 2014, 11:50:08 AM

Quote from: necro_nemesis on February 10, 2014, 08:24:27 PM

Quote from: morrisford on February 10, 2014, 06:21:59 PM

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data

I have to ask: do you get any kind of "Bonus" when your hardware finds a Block? Or the usual reward you would get for participating?

bspurloc

hero member

Activity: 569

Merit: 500

Quote from: necro_nemesis on February 10, 2014, 08:24:27 PM

Quote from: morrisford on February 10, 2014, 06:21:59 PM

Wow! My miner found a block. Number 285163. A first for me.

Mine found 2 a couple days ago throughout a single day and my rig is microscopic in comparison to what I see out there. Is that equivalent lightning striking twice?

yes very odd.. a friends 60gh/s rig found 2 blocks last week. essentially an impossible feat in comparison. but luck is luck, or someone is manipulating the data

bspurloc

hero member

Activity: 569

Merit: 500

Quote from: eoakland on February 10, 2014, 10:26:44 PM

Quote from: Trongersoll on February 10, 2014, 09:32:39 PM

Quote from: eoakland on February 10, 2014, 09:23:53 PM

Quote from: J_Dubbs on February 10, 2014, 08:18:08 PM

Quote from: chunkyjunkie on February 10, 2014, 07:30:32 PM

So 37% day luck np happens, 70% week luck yeah hmm.... and 91% month.... we sure something isn't wrong? Might have to switch soonish myself but rather support spreading out hash power.

I'm never sure, but then people jump on me and say I'm a conspiracy theorist. I dunno, my opinion is our luck will improve once the database issues are resolved, just like last time it choked when we were getting close to 900TH/S. BUT, nobody wants to even consider the possibility that it's an issue backstage on the pool, which honestly is what appears to be happening. I love that "IT guy" mentality where anyone exploring potential explanations for what looks to be a pattern of "luck" is labeled as an idiot.

I dunno, seems very funky. just look at when everything is going smooth how quickly the confirmations for blocks found go....but when there is a glitch, the blocks take forever to get confirmations. one block lasts 23 hours to confirm. how many "website under service" messages have we seen today ? all points to issues behind the scenes. I think during bad luck collective hashing power should be pointed to BTCGuild ...LoL. those guys find blocks left and right...never a sad 30% dry spell for so many days. in the past 7 days or so our month luck dropped big time. What the feezy ?

I'm not sure who you talk to, but if you look at the BTCguild thread, You'll see that they are all commenting on a bad luck streak as well.

30% worth i think not. don't get me wrong...like slush pool...just hate this "bad luck" streak. i paid too much to get jalapeno paydays.

just mentioning u bought a jalapeno means you paid too much. 5-7gh/s price when a cube for the same price does 30-38gh/s?

eoakland

hero member

Activity: 699

Merit: 504

Quote from: chopsticks on February 11, 2014, 09:09:48 AM

Quote from: eoakland on February 11, 2014, 01:19:42 AM

Quote from: chopsticks on February 11, 2014, 01:01:09 AM

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti. Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone. you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

{screams YIPPEEE-KAI-YAY motherfucker and slams eoakland upside the head with a TRUST, not thrust, of his his pelvis}

Overly sensitive today?
You may have gotten a bad rap on the trust rating but you sure are a sensitive monkey.

Sure, I'm the one person on the planet who has never pushed anyone.

But you.

{push}

@chopsticks, ok...now that one was funny. i can see the humor in your last post. =)

perhaps a good cup of café and statistical climb in pool luck have helped. have a good day chopsticks

chopsticks

member

Activity: 91

Merit: 10

*bamf!* you've just been eaten by a gr00.

Quote from: eoakland on February 11, 2014, 01:19:42 AM

Quote from: chopsticks on February 11, 2014, 01:01:09 AM

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti. Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone. you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

{screams YIPPEEE-KAI-YAY motherfucker and slams eoakland upside the head with a TRUST, not thrust, of his his pelvis}

Overly sensitive today?
You may have gotten a bad rap on the trust rating but you sure are a sensitive monkey.

Sure, I'm the one person on the planet who has never pushed anyone.

But you.

{push}

bebooba11

newbie

Activity: 39

Merit: 0

Sorry Slush. Had to hop out. I'll be back

organofcorti

donator

Activity: 2058

Merit: 1007

Poor impulse control.

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:36:09 AM

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

PostMixer

newbie

Activity: 53

Merit: 0

Quote from: eoakland on February 11, 2014, 01:51:44 AM

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:39:09 AM

Quote from: eoakland on February 11, 2014, 01:19:42 AM

Quote from: chopsticks on February 11, 2014, 01:01:09 AM

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti. Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone. you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

@eokland, What's up with the trust warnings on your profile? Not trying to be an ass, I just have never seen that before. Extreme Caution sounds serious?

that's funny you ask bro, click on the trust section. i sold/fronted without payment something to someone, double-checked that they were sure, they confirmed, i shipped, next thing i know the dude refused it, and instead of sending back 2 day priority....my miner is stuck in USPS return limbo for 21 days.....the buyer did not keep his word one too many times. so i finally left him negative feedback and he returned the favor.

if you click on my feedback you can see the story and reference link.

Got It. I never new you could click on that trust (feedback ) link. Sounds like you got a bad rap on that one. Hope things work out for you.

eoakland

hero member

Activity: 699

Merit: 504

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 01:39:09 AM

Quote from: eoakland on February 11, 2014, 01:19:42 AM

Quote from: chopsticks on February 11, 2014, 01:01:09 AM

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti. Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone. you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

@eokland, What's up with the trust warnings on your profile? Not trying to be an ass, I just have never seen that before. Extreme Caution sounds serious?

that's funny you ask bro, click on the trust section. i sold/fronted without payment something to someone, double-checked that they were sure, they confirmed, i shipped, next thing i know the dude refused it, and instead of sending back 2 day priority....my miner is stuck in USPS return limbo for 21 days.....the buyer did not keep his word one too many times. so i finally left him negative feedback and he returned the favor.

if you click on my feedback you can see the story and reference link.

PostMixer

newbie

Activity: 53

Merit: 0

Quote from: eoakland on February 11, 2014, 01:19:42 AM

Quote from: chopsticks on February 11, 2014, 01:01:09 AM

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti. Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone. you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

@eokland, What's up with the trust warnings on your profile? Not trying to be an ass, I just have never seen that before. Extreme Caution sounds serious?

PostMixer

newbie

Activity: 53

Merit: 0

Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 12:10:00 AM

Quote from: eoakland on February 10, 2014, 11:42:37 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on February 10, 2014, 11:18:25 PM

Quote from: Scyntech on February 10, 2014, 10:48:43 PM

seriously smart stuffs

I'm not really interested in kudos, I'm just keen for someone to try it and report back. I'm hoping that if a few regular posters learn how to do this it will help keep freak outs to a minimum.

Give it a try, Scyntech. If there's anything you didn't understand I'll explain it again. Anyone should be able to do this just by following the steps and using wolframalpha, but only if I explained it properly.

Organofcorti,

you do realize that to many the formula you speak of, and the terms you use are a foreign language right ? (me included) I took a look at it, but quickly turned away because it reminds me of something I would need a TI-83 calculator for =)

OK, thanks for the feedback. Here's a simplified version:

1. Got to http://mining.bitcoin.cz/stats/
2. Add up all the numbers in the "Total shares" column.
3. Follow each link under "Block #" to find the difficulty at which each block was solved. (For orphaned blocks, assume the same as the last difficulty). Add up all the difficulties from each block.
4. Divide the result of step 2 by the result of step 3. Call this number "X"
5. Go to http://www.wolframalpha.com/
6. In the text box, enter the following, substituting your value for X:

erlang distribution Pr(x <= X) , k=20, lambda=20

So if you calculated X as 1.1, you'd enter:

erlang distribution Pr(x <= 1.1) , k=20, lambda=20

We use k=20 and lambda=20 since there are twenty blocks on the basic stats page. If you were to use one hundred blocks, change the values to k=100 and lambda=100.

I think if you follow that step by step you should be fine. After that you just need to understand the results, but I'll help you with that once you get this part done.

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

eoakland

hero member

Activity: 699

Merit: 504

Quote from: chopsticks on February 11, 2014, 01:01:09 AM

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti. Much appreciated.

@chopsticks, i seriously doubt you have ever pushed anyone. you have more than likely been on the receiving end of one too many pushes and pelvic thrusts bottom boy.

chopsticks

member

Activity: 91

Merit: 10

*bamf!* you've just been eaten by a gr00.

(pushes eoakland to the side}

Nice job, organofcorti. Much appreciated.

eoakland

hero member

Activity: 699

Merit: 504

Quote from: necro_nemesis on February 10, 2014, 11:48:36 PM

Didn't we just recently calculate how many gigawatts to expect from our flux capacitor? We've had some luck today. Just happens to be bad. Tomorrow is another day.

yes, you are correct. Now the only issue is how do we power that flux...plutonium is not readily available at our local Costco---you wouldn't happen to have a flyer in your pocket with the information as to when lightening will strike....would ya ? =)

Topic: [4+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); Overt AsicBoost; World First Mining Pool - page 416. (Read 4382755 times)