Not that this really has anything to do with Slush's pool.
Topic: [4+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); Overt AsicBoost; World First Mining Pool - page 422. (Read 4382755 times)
February 07, 2014, 12:33:27 PM
Really, if the coin lands heads 99 times in a row or the wheel hits black 99 times in a row, the smart money would be to bet on heads/black. In a perfect system each spin/flip would be a 50% chance, but there is a non-zero chance that there is a systemic problem in the gaming system and the odds are not really 50% per side. Don't bet against the streak.
Not that this really has anything to do with Slush's pool.
Not that this really has anything to do with Slush's pool.
February 07, 2014, 12:31:32 PM
What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.
I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.433 read the last words in that thread I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK
Actually its the same every time you flip it. . It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). . Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel .. However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..
Wesley Snipes told me to always bet on black!
BENJY!!!!!
February 07, 2014, 12:29:04 PM
What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.
I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.433 read the last words in that thread I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK
Actually its the same every time you flip it. . It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). . Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel .. However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..
Wesley Snipes told me to always bet on black!
February 07, 2014, 12:25:38 PM
What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.
I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.433 read the last words in that thread I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK
Actually its the same every time you flip it. . It's 50/50 every single time (unless it somehow by some small chance it lands on the edge of the coin, which is some infintesimal chance). . Thats why it makes no sense to bet black when its hit red 20 previous times on a roulette wheel .. However, the odds of it hitting heads 99 times in a row and then hitting tails is the ridiculous odds. ..
February 07, 2014, 12:17:20 PM
BLOCKS EVERYWHERE!!!!!! YAY SLUSH!
February 07, 2014, 11:53:09 AM
What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.
I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
An old post from Satoshi about similar concerns https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.433 read the last words in that thread I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
i.e. "Bitcoin gold rush paranoia I guess"Quote
When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution
When you toss a coin and 99 times it was heads, what is the chance for the 100 it's heads or tails?EDIT: What i want to say is that even if currently GHash.IO and BTC Guild are together 51% of the network there is chance that they won't find a block in the next 24h and it will be perfectly normal (though very very very) BAD LUCK
February 07, 2014, 11:41:08 AM
Has everyone received mining payouts that were due? I should have got .01 sent to me yesterday but it has disappeared from my account and there is no record of it in the transaction history. Does it usually take this long or has it vanished?
I had a 0.01 payout yesterday, so I'd query this with Slush if I were you - make sure your payout address is right, and if it isn't what you expect it to be, change your account password right away!
I locked my address so that hasn't been changed. I double checked to make sure. I've sent Slush a pm.
February 07, 2014, 11:27:58 AM
nobody except Slush knows for certain if there were technical issues or not. Making assertive claims that "luck" is "pure" seems incredibly naive and idealistic. There's a pattern of activity that looks more like a technical problem was resolved.
If there was a problem, you wouldn't have been getting shares. If Slush had been keeping blocks for himself, they woudl show up on blockchain.info.
So yes, pure luck. Read up on gaussian distributions.
I never claimed he was keeping shares. I believe his own announcement stated when we approached 9xxx total hashing that the database choked. At some point shares above that value weren't happening for somebody out there trying to join this pool, but no it wasn't my shares being dropped, but that doesn't mean someone else's weren't. This would affect our relative position in the network, thus the restricted growth would lead to longer block times. The root cause does not have to be theft.
Edit: announcement was on 2/2 when "900th was within reach"- database connectivity issues. Here we are 2/7 at 820, meaning quite a few have bailed. Less hashing due to people bailing=longer rounds. What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.
I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
The way I read his last statement of "no issues" yesterday was just that... The issue you pointed out that was posted form the 2nd I believe, was resolved and closed out.. I see this a lot in my line of work, where a client will try to correlate two separate notices where in fact the notices are simply put "two notices" no relation .
February 07, 2014, 11:07:11 AM
I believe his own announcement stated when we approached 9xxx total hashing that the database choked. At some point shares above that value weren't happening for somebody out there trying to join this pool, but no it wasn't my shares being dropped, but that doesn't mean someone else's weren't. This would affect our relative position in the network, thus the restricted growth would lead to longer block times. The root cause does not have to be theft.
Didn't see such announcement (in fact the opposite 'There wasn't any issue in recent days'), but even if so it can't be a reason for 'our relative position in the network', because the share is accepted and if it's a block it's broadcasted no matter if it was stored in the database or not, which happens some time latter and is not related with anything else except someones reward being lower for a while.
Someones reward being lower for a while is also not a problem in this case, because the round have ended much more than 15min after that, so any share (lost or not) counted as 0 at that time.
February 07, 2014, 10:51:27 AM
nobody except Slush knows for certain if there were technical issues or not. Making assertive claims that "luck" is "pure" seems incredibly naive and idealistic. There's a pattern of activity that looks more like a technical problem was resolved.
If there was a problem, you wouldn't have been getting shares. If Slush had been keeping blocks for himself, they woudl show up on blockchain.info.
So yes, pure luck. Read up on gaussian distributions.
I never claimed he was keeping shares. I believe his own announcement stated when we approached 9xxx total hashing that the database choked. At some point shares above that value weren't happening for somebody out there trying to join this pool, but no it wasn't my shares being dropped, but that doesn't mean someone else's weren't. This would affect our relative position in the network, thus the restricted growth would lead to longer block times. The root cause does not have to be theft.
Edit: announcement was on 2/2 when "900th was within reach"- database connectivity issues. Here we are 2/7 at 820, meaning quite a few have bailed. Less hashing due to people bailing=longer rounds. What did we have? Connectivity issues. Why didn't we hit 900? Connectivity issues. Why are we at 820? People left. Why? Connectivity issues. Why is our luck bad? Restricted growth. Why? Connectivity issues. What is the root cause? You get the point.
I'm presenting a theory, another way to look at this beyond the face value approach. I'm not claiming to know all the answers. Let me ask this. When projecting luck do you use a normal distribution? if so, Has our luck pattern fallen within a normal distribution spread?
February 07, 2014, 10:45:17 AM
nobody except Slush knows for certain if there were technical issues or not. Making assertive claims that "luck" is "pure" seems incredibly naive and idealistic. There's a pattern of activity that looks more like a technical problem was resolved.
If there was a problem, you wouldn't have been getting shares. If Slush had been keeping blocks for himself, they woudl show up on blockchain.info.
So yes, pure luck. Read up on gaussian distributions.
February 07, 2014, 09:33:52 AM
Agreed. They are flowing in like the salmon of Capistrano now....http://salmonofcapistrano.com/
February 07, 2014, 09:27:25 AM
nobody except Slush knows for certain if there were technical issues or not. Making assertive claims that "luck" is "pure" seems incredibly naive and idealistic. There's a pattern of activity that looks more like a technical problem was resolved.
Next you're gonna try to convince me the CEO's nephew got the biggest raise or a promotion because he worked harder, and that connections don't tip the playing field. If you are seeing things as basic then you kids have a lot to learn about life on Earth, which is not always fair and corruptions impact results all the time. External factors do have influence, not everything in this world is a lottery of coincidence. Not to mention just a few days ago before the string of long rounds there was an announcement about technical issues. It's just stupid that people actually think they "know" for a fact what happens backstage while they only have access to everything in front of the curtain. Okay, off to go feed my unicorn, got to go...
Next you're gonna try to convince me the CEO's nephew got the biggest raise or a promotion because he worked harder, and that connections don't tip the playing field. If you are seeing things as basic then you kids have a lot to learn about life on Earth, which is not always fair and corruptions impact results all the time. External factors do have influence, not everything in this world is a lottery of coincidence. Not to mention just a few days ago before the string of long rounds there was an announcement about technical issues. It's just stupid that people actually think they "know" for a fact what happens backstage while they only have access to everything in front of the curtain. Okay, off to go feed my unicorn, got to go...
February 07, 2014, 08:55:25 AM
Has everyone received mining payouts that were due? I should have got .01 sent to me yesterday but it has disappeared from my account and there is no record of it in the transaction history. Does it usually take this long or has it vanished?
I had a 0.01 payout yesterday, so I'd query this with Slush if I were you - make sure your payout address is right, and if it isn't what you expect it to be, change your account password right away!
February 07, 2014, 08:42:17 AM
There wasn't any issue in recent days, everything is just a bad luck. It is quite normal that people start thinking about strange theories when the bad luck happen :-).
Btw this wasn't the worst strike of bad luck in the pool history. I remember few rounds which took 12x difficulty (so equivalent of 31 billion shares at current difficulty, e.g. ~40 hours of hashing at current pool speed for a single block).
Btw this wasn't the worst strike of bad luck in the pool history. I remember few rounds which took 12x difficulty (so equivalent of 31 billion shares at current difficulty, e.g. ~40 hours of hashing at current pool speed for a single block).
wow means newer miners are going to be butt hurt when they see a block that long.... anyway great job keeping the pool going strong.
February 07, 2014, 08:28:16 AM
There wasn't any issue in recent days, everything is just a bad luck. It is quite normal that people start thinking about strange theories when the bad luck happen :-).
Btw this wasn't the worst strike of bad luck in the pool history. I remember few rounds which took 12x difficulty (so equivalent of 31 billion shares at current difficulty, e.g. ~40 hours of hashing at current pool speed for a single block).
Btw this wasn't the worst strike of bad luck in the pool history. I remember few rounds which took 12x difficulty (so equivalent of 31 billion shares at current difficulty, e.g. ~40 hours of hashing at current pool speed for a single block).
February 07, 2014, 08:10:29 AM
i want my 16h+ rounds! i've done some horrible things in my past (pushing grandmas into a pond, stealing bubble gum) and i deserve bad karma! 
a 30 minute round, and yet no one is uncomplaining
Go Slush!
Go Slush!
February 07, 2014, 08:03:18 AM
a 30 minute round, and yet no one is uncomplaining
Go Slush!
Go Slush!
February 07, 2014, 08:02:48 AM
WAHHHHH, I DIDN'T get paid out....WAHHH i'm not making invisible money anymore....WAHHHH i'm switching pools.....WAHHHH we didnt find a block.
STOP CHECKING STATS every second and deal with it. Get a job to pass the time.
SLUSH 4L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
STOP CHECKING STATS every second and deal with it. Get a job to pass the time.
SLUSH 4L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ok dad
February 07, 2014, 07:59:13 AM
WAHHHHH, I DIDN'T get paid out....WAHHH i'm not making invisible money anymore....WAHHHH i'm switching pools.....WAHHHH we didnt find a block.
STOP CHECKING STATS every second and deal with it. Get a job to pass the time.
SLUSH 4L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
STOP CHECKING STATS every second and deal with it. Get a job to pass the time.
SLUSH 4L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MORE BLOCKS! YAY
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