We can make whatever assumptions we want with the supply being locked up by hodlers, but the bigger factor is still the demand side of things. Bulls could all be withdrawing their coins but if not much people are buying, then probably don't expect that much upward movement just yet.
imagine there was 10 coins from 10 sellers in an exchange and $390,000 from 10 buyers in an exchange
removing 1 coin does not mean bitcoin is worth 10% more.
keeping 10coin and removing $39k does not mean bitcoin is worth 10% less
even if there are 9coins deposited. or $351,000 deposited(variate it as you please)
on the market people can make an order for:
0.01 for $390.00
0.01 for $390.50
0.01 for $391.00
0.01 for $391.50
..
..
0.01 for $400.00
where only $8295 is spend to buy only 0.21btc. but has increased the price to $40k/btc
it doesnt need to have $400k deposited to match 10 coins to become a $40k/coin price
in short. yes 40,000 coins may have exited an exchange. but the market orders are not filled by whole bitcoins or all deposited coins. market order lines are filled with a small subset of coin deposits. bought with a small subset of $ balance
order lines are not fixed to only sell whole bitcoins. and the price does not move depending on whole bitcoins or whole matching balance.
its not a case that if there are 10 coins and $390k deposited the price must be $39k
instead that $390k could be spent to only buy 0.5btc per order(10 people) meaning the price can be $390k spend for 5btc(10x0.5)
meaning the price is $78k/btc
