One thing I have come to understand with Technical analysis is that it works with time ,But the problem I have some time with my analysis is that I do expect them to happen too fast which at the end it takes longer time to be achieved.
My confidence became stronger about the future price of Bitcoin when we didn't break below $25k support level during the last retracement we had before we started heading up, and after some weeks of consolidation.
And from my own analysis, I'm anticipating a $45k, that my price target which is a few thousand dollars from your own price prediction and we already hit $41k right now, my target is still on the right track though.
If it happened too fast a free fall will follow, meaning there is no strong side ways building up with time before surging, I don't always like such moves unless we are in a full hard blown bull run, this is also why I am not a big fan of trading, because even if you are sure that a move is coming you won't know the exact timing.
I think the second bull run is just getting started, the first phase started months back while people are expecting a massive pump, it's over, even if there will be some retracement next year it won't be as deep like people are hoping for, unless a very scary event takes place.
Just because of Covid, something that haven't happened before in the history of people Hit very hard in 2020 I believe that's why we saw new lows in that year and sadly people have now use that to become a sitting duck, by not taking any action, waiting that something like that Covid period will happen again.
It was a pleasant surprise in 2020, and now it's the fools game of not buying Bitcoin and waiting, many will watch the bull market return without taking any actions, they will ape in when nothing happen this time around.