41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard - page 2.

inBitweTrust

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 501

Foxpup said it best...

Quote from: Foxpup on December 27, 2014, 05:06:06 AM

It's a Poisson process, with a mean of 10 minutes. So...

Quote from: Bitcoin++ on December 27, 2014, 04:40:41 AM

What is the probability that the next block will be found within 10 minutes from now?

63.212%

Quote from: Bitcoin++ on December 27, 2014, 04:40:41 AM

Or within 1 minute?

9.516%

Quote from: Bitcoin++ on December 27, 2014, 04:40:41 AM

Or 10 seconds?

1.653%

Quote from: Bitcoin++ on December 27, 2014, 04:40:41 AM

Or 1 second?

0.167%

Regardless, I will join in the mortal fear that Bitcoin is doomed because investors seem to be pouring millions into new ASICs thus increasing difficulty. We are all doomed Embarrassed

franky1

legendary

Activity: 4424

Merit: 4794

when people complain that 1 block took 40 minutes. they forget to get excited that another 3 blocks took only a few minutes

simply put not every block is going to be 10minutes.. its an "average" of multiple blocks, not a hardset rule for each block

Klestin

hero member

Activity: 493

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

The expected time between blocks taking 40 minutes is 10 hours, 43 minutes. Meaning more than once per day we have a block that takes that long. This will always happen and is completely normal. Sometimes blocks take seconds and sometimes more than an hour.

You can take your logic, and your math, and your statistical analysis, and carry it right the hell away from this thread! How dare you interrupt my fellow users' sacred right to be confused and angry over something that is working exactly as designed and expected?

Newar

legendary

Activity: 1358

Merit: 1001

https://gliph.me/hUF

Quote from: no141 on February 17, 2015, 11:27:43 AM

You guys are funny too!

You must be new!

*rhymefortheday*

no141

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

You guys are funny too!

LiteCoinGuy

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1014

In Satoshi I Trust

thats a sign that bitcoin is doomed....i heard.

Divinespark

hero member

Activity: 938

Merit: 501

yep, its looking positively scary right now to be honest

no141

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

It's so easy to forget about the laws of averages, Thanks!

jani

newbie

Activity: 13

Merit: 0

Last difficulty increase was ~7.5%.

For that much you can attribute block discovery to be faster (in case when difficulty increases). That would be 45seconds faster.

While average time between transactions will be targeted at 10mins, times between specific blocks can vary a lot. Not long ago there was no block for 1h35mins.
And you have situations where you have 6 blocks discovered in 20mins.

It's just how statistics works.

ScryptAsic

hero member

Activity: 647

Merit: 501

GainerCoin.com 🔥 Masternode coin 🔥

Quote from: no141 on February 17, 2015, 10:02:27 AM

What is going on in the bitcoin mining world that is having these awful swings in block time?

This is just variance. It doesn't have anything to do with the fact that difficulty is 'too high'. Even if the difficulty 'matched' the hashrate perfectly (it never will because of changes in the network's luck) then it would sometimes take 41 minutes (or longer) for the network to find a block.

The 10 minute block time is only a target average

zetaray

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

The difficulty is a direct result of network hashing power and a bit of luck. Instead of saying difficulty is way to hard, we should say there are way too much hashing power.

no141

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

What is going on in the bitcoin mining world that is having these awful swings in block time?

Topic: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard - page 2. (Read 2821 times)