Putting my head on the block. I see people talking about 3-6k, and from what I gather predictions for the big jumps tend to be too low. That plus really big money looking at us right now.
I don't see it hitting 5 figures by the end of this year. In-fact I don't think it will go over 1500 in this year.
I think you are right on. Never forget, all bitcoin holders were Goxxed. That $1,100+ ATH was artificially inflated...and imo I think the $700 range is what the ATH *should* have been without that whole mess. I could see $1600 as the new ATH this year but once it creeps up to the $900-1,000 range a lot of people will probably sell off and figure another dip will come and buy back in lower once that happens. If the past is any indicator expect resistance, corrections, and of course, lots of despair.
Unless a protocol flaw is discovered or the US drops a bomb with overregulation, I can't imagine prices going under $500 USD again - ever. I only think 5 digits is possible this year if there is a large stock market correction and/or a loss of faith in the USD/economy - but even then it'd be a long shot due to many factors. Henry Paulson warned congress there'd be martial law if they didn't get the 08' bailout - and I think I read after that they got the power to not even need to go to congress in the future when an emergency happens. I just don't see "them" allowing it to come that close ever again...and for damn good reason.
I'm not arguing your opinion on $1500 this year (although I believe it will be higher) but I don't find your comments too convincing.
You are correct in assuming there is possible fraudulent behaviour in bitcoin land, we all know it's being manipulated by people with loads of money.
That said:
Is it me or was China the main driver of the last ATH (and ATL)?
Is it me or did Gox only crumble after we hit the bear market and people wanted to go fiat and it wasn't there?
Do you really think America is the main driver of bitcoin?
Why do you think America will be able to "overregulate" it?
If the USD economy blows out do you think most will go for bitcoin? Why not EUR, CNY or RUR?
In my opinion all the bad news events are relatively normal for growth. Looking at the graphs this cycle wasn't much different than other years.
