Topic: $5,000 is the number - so get used to it. (Read 539 times)

Good point. The April-July 2013 period continues to be the closest historical parallel we have to our current market position.

That's when I was first getting really into trading. I remember the market felt completely dead during that summer.....like silent. And that June breakdown felt like a nail in the coffin, just like the breakdown last month did.

I was really fortunate to be heavily following Lucif (Masterluc) at that time. He called the bottom perfectly in July and while I was terrified, I ended up following him into the market, getting in near the bottom before the November bubble.

I'm drawing on that experience now, trying not to give in to the bearish sentiment currently enveloping the market.

April 2013 as I remember was just 'quiet' and people didnt know what it would do, back then mining still profitable so nobody was going away but alot of people just sold as they mined they didnt speculate or least from the pool and people I knew.   Eventually it kept a kind of steady price and then it grew gigantically for the rest of the year.    Quiet can be quite bullish it seems, even if people are moaning about the present for the future it can turn out surprisingly positive.    Going lower is possible but will it spike to a low, burn the hand of the sellers or settle out over time and then rise after a dead calm.


Thats the inverse of what I think when people get a bit carried away when price went to 13k, why not 20k why not 50k but the further it goes especially in a short period of time the more unsteady I think it is and resistance will rise, sellers are more motivated.    As we go lower it will hit some bedrock, speculators give up guessing.   Markets are always ironic, its like herding sheep or cats or something they never do what you want or expect.

There never needs to be a reason other than excess supply, weak demand, and thin liquidity.

Also, the market crashed 83% in April 2013 before making a new all-time high 6 months later. So obviously the April-July 2013 dip was just a pullback in a larger bull market. So a crash can be a correction.

you don't understand it because you are calling it a "correction" and your percentages are way off the mark.
a drop down to $4k is not only not a correction but also it is a gigantic crash. the size of it is going to be a little less than 70%. so in other words if you even consider $4k you are considering the market to crash (for no reason i should add) hard!

I have hardly witnessed a drop of price during the December holidays. First, in 2017 December was the era the bitcoin flew most with very high volatile. In 2018 (December) there was no drop but market was already down till the increase we are currently seeing now. Therefore, the drop in price is not just for holidays, fund is what I think is responsible for drop and at the moment I'm not reading any fud that is likely going to drop price back to 5k area.

Personally I don't understand the thesis of acknowledging the price can drop 25%+ to $6k area but not 50%+ to $4k level if there is natural bearish correction. I'm starting to consider it a less than 50% chance $6k is broken, due to multi-year support at this level from 2017 & 2018, which is incredibly rare in Bitcoin price history. We haven't had multi-year support since the $380 "dip buying" level back in 2014 and 2015 which held in 2016. But also surely if $7k and $8k can be broken then why not $6k and even (dare I say it) $5k? It reminds me of when people thought $5k and $4k wouldn't be broken either, whereas anything can happen despite the overall bullish sentiment.

If you think investors are smart enough to know when to stop selling then this example disproves this myth:


Notice how the target for the breakdown was around $2K but people panic sold it down to $1.8K. Also bare in mind how this was at the beginning a full-blown bull market as well as new ATHs, more of less one of most reliable prices to buy Bitcoin in the context of being only 2x from it's previous ATH and looking bullish af. Why wouldn't the same thing occur?

Also note how this scenario of breaking $6k doesn't exclude the idea of being above $10k and even $12k by the end of the year 
Hence I consider it the "best case scenario", even if it's far from the most likely in my opinion (it's what too many people want to see!)

Maybe about support, i think for now we must think about it too. By the way, christmast and holiday almost come and usually it can cause price dumped. Maybe for people if already know this, don't need to panic because it is only temporary and will up again after that. Because if people make it worse, price of bitcoin can really dumped and no buy order can block it anymore.

5000 wont happen easily now we're printed some much volume about 6000.    Maybe Mt. gox liquidated coins are being sold off or some other reason that leads to weakness, we'd find that out afterwards I guess but right now its not especially apparent.


There is no 50% Fibonacci level if we were being strict about it and of course we arent, all we are trying to do is guess where others place significance in any move forward and sort the amount of momentum and true direction from speculative activity.
  50% is just invented by people as a place to take some profits, in a natural order its not got any greater power to it presuming Fibonacci itself does.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/fibonacciretracement.asp

I'd normally take the 38 and 61% levels are good confidence levels that the move will complete, if we cant even stay above 38% then its quite weak.

I am not trolling.  Look for yourself, look at a chart with 1-week candles.  The $5,000 range is not an unrealistic resistance over the next several months, it is more than possible.  $5,000 is the lowest I think it will reach.  This is not trolling it probably just goes against what you personally want the price to do.

There will always be people who think they are edgy and smart to tell something nobody really believes.
It is literally just so simple to see behind their guise that bitcoin can't be $5k forever, it is literally impossible so they just make stuff up to get attention. Remember there are people in this world who get no attention from the real world because people could literally decline to talk to them, they can just remove themselves from these people and that is why people tend to get attention from online people.

You can't get away from them, you can't block them, they are just there and they are not just one, they are millions in every language in every website. Hence they troll and write stuff like "bitcoin will be $5k!!" so they could get some attention they otherwise couldn't.

Current situation on the market doesn't show us signs that that Bitcoin price might fall so deep. There is no need to spread the panic. Moreover many are expecting for price to rise as the year is going to an end although there isn't any rule that could confirm that.
Still having in mind previous experience I can say that nothing should surprise me and therfore I'm prepared on every scenario without drama.

The years of experience in price action here taught me that you should never discard certain price levels from being retested.... we have enough historical evidence that this market is irrational and full of surprises.

$7k isn't even that bad would we revisit that level. I would consider a $5k visit to be more worrying, but then again, when people start to get worried it usually is a great time to open some long positions. In my case it means buy more spot.

People are still fairly optimistic which makes me think that they haven't suffered enough yet. Maybe that another $1-$2k red candle will be that last shakeout of weak hands and profit takers.

Basicly, according to this chart, bitcoin will go down to $5K as the bottom? a very convincing chart based on MA, 19bars-133 days, 17bars-119 days, 19bars-133 days, and next will be another 17bars-for 119 days until March 2020? Well, I don't buy it.
Bitcoin seems persistent above $8K, probably can drop to $7K or the worst at $6K but not at $5K.
Furthermore, we approach the end of the year, entering the Q4 which the market sentiment seems positive even at this bear market, Bitcoin may recover back to $10K by the ensd of this year. But, who knows, we'll see when the time comes.

There's a lot of TA out there suggesting a drop to between $5-6.8K with the possibility of $7K holding, this is probably why. Most people don't expect it to drop below $4.5K it seems as the 200 Week MA is there which supported us back at $3120. It still hasn't been broken and is continuing to trend upwards. $5K is clearly a number to rally behind for ₿ bulls basically. See here for examples of how Bitcoin could drop to $6875, $6410, $5,350 and $5,050, by extrapolating past price history to the current price.


Here's an example of what $5K could look like for you. Give it a couple of months and the 200 Week MA will be there to support the price.

What's your reasoning behind this mate? There is little to no concrete proof or any other people who would ever imagine BTC dropping to the 5000 mark in this bear market.

I personally don't think BTC will even hit below 7,000 USD, we haven't seen any big price movements in the last couple of months and unless something drastic happens, I don't think we'll see any actual movement until then.

I highly doubt that bitcoin is going to dip down that much in the meantime. However, I do think that a short term period of suppressed activity is going to follow after this dip from the $14k range.

As a result, I've stopped all my longs long ago, but I've also cashed out my shorts recently because markets could reasonably go either way and it's extremely difficult to predict which way it'll be.

I don't think that a recovery to $10k+ is going to be likely in the short term, although possible, since there is now clear resistance at both $12k and $10k that would prevent prices from catching up any time soon. A likely scenario would be sideways movement at the $8k level before BTC tests support at $7k, although $5k seems a bit too low of a regression.

It is fine for me as long as it wouldn't stay too long in $5,000 and move up again after it hits it .
I really hope that we could see it around $15,000 again before the year ends and we still have some time for it to happens,
So if it would drop down to $5,000 again it is better to grab that chance to get some.
And I think it wouldn't really go down to that road again  (crossed fingers) .

haha, actually the real "number" is $10,000 and your sock poppets can't change that either. any price below that mark is a surprising discount that we are receiving as the bitcoin autumn sale promotion that is unpredictable and there is no resistances here, only weak hands that are giving up their coins at that discount in this promotional campaign

This is the same thing which echoes from the mind of every single crypto enthusiast but we need to accept the reality that $5000 could be the stable value for bitcoin by looking at the fluctuations which has happened in last 18 months or so, but if we check with early adopters of BTC they are so confident that there will be a massive pump which will happen within a span of next few years but for short term investors it might not yeild any result.

Im waiting Vegeta meme again, my floor is 6k-7.5k, i will long there

Aye, I was in disbelief at the lack of respect for $6K earlier this year. Testing it as support now would be reasonable. I just prefer to react rather than predict, watching support levels on the way down for reversal signs instead of focusing on any one price target.

it sounds like you've had a rough few days trading.

btw we're still waiting for that chart showing why we're headed to $5000. *crickets*

It reminds me of those rigged games at carnivals...

The Ring Toss
The Balloon Dart Throw
The Milk Bottle Pyramid 

He may refer to 50% fibonacci level which would be right about $5k which is correct in my opinion. 30% - 50% day up swing is not likely especially now in bear market. And about you "pump = sell" and "dump = buy" tactics - it is NOT that simple...

I believe you, but I want to see a chart of these levels. I'm too lazy to draw them myself. These replacements sound like tasty discounts to me.

Why are we not speculating on the $6k level first? Did we over speculate on this level last year too much already? How boring.

Volume profile says that level is "well important". Even if it completely disregarded this relevance back in May when it blasted through it in 2 days 

Maybe you lot have a point.

Volatility exist in both bear market and bull market so there is no point of arguing here, I do agree that the current market situation is turning to bearish or probably hanging by a thread since we are currently on a sideway for some days now.

Same here, 5k somehow gives a sign of a colder winter than last year.  But I believe with the current support level we are far from it somehow.




Or people just wanted to ride on what is the current sentiment and put more on it.  See how the bullish "prophet" are quiet now

Show up some technicals on this one rather than saying without having any basis.I read up above theres no significant support on 5k levels.

I'm already get used to when we do speak on bitcoins price.Im aint surprise that it can swing up 30-50% in a matter of a day or a two.
If it dips then you should accumulate and if it pumps then sell off for profits.Rinse and repeat then make some money. 

how far is too far? at what point would you admit there are no more massive gains coming? $5k would wipe out 82.5% of this year's gains. would you wait until $3k to admit it's not just volatility but rather a bear market in play?

as a medium term bull, i don't think we want to see $5k.


i even saw a $3k prediction today. people are getting more bearish by the minute it seems. i take it as a positive sign. people are always bearish at the bottom.

It is fine to see Bitcoin go down to $5000, we are still in an uptrend if we look back from January.

As what Bob Loukas stated



It is ok for Bitcoin market to crash as long as the next phase would be a massive gain that can possibly break its previous ATH.

Same here. Retesting the yearly high is probably off the table for quite a while, but the descending triangle apex ~ $10K is another story. Retesting that level is highly likely no matter what. Considering the whole downtrend since June, it would actually be a pretty small bounce.

In contrast, there are several levels between here and $5,000 that I think bulls will defend.

If we are talking about support and resistances here then I would beg to disagree with you since any trader who even have a drop of knowledge about TA knows that we are still on a support level if we dropped below 8,000$ already. I'm talking about the 7,900$ support level we are currently sitting on and it is still unclear if we are out of the woods yet since there is no signs that we will recover anytime soon. Even if we broke down the 7,900$ level we still have the next support level in 7,200$ and even that shows that we are still far away from the 5k level you are hoping for. I've seen members like you posting this kinds of predictions in the forum where they always pick a nice solid number without any kind of logical reasoning behind it, I don't know why you are doing that but I think it's mainly because you want to add some fuzz here.

The most obvious strong support is $6400 or so, its basically the support from 2018 which should hold... at least temporarily.

And $8500 is minor resistance, the major resistance will be around $9000 which was support earlier this year. Most likely if on the weekly chart if it fails to close above $9000-$9100 then we will have 6 months or so of bear market or sideways markets like we did many times in the past like the 2014 peak or the 2017 peak. Just check the chart and look at the weekly candle bodies and candle wicks. I think this is what most traders are waiting for.

November should be an interesting month but it was usually a bullish month except for last year, wonder if it will be another bearish month like last year. Either way I think we will at least retest the $7500 area before higher.

I'm more bullish for every bear that comes out of hibernation, somehow I think their timing is off at least in the northern hemisphere    more the merrier, we can have a teddy bears picnic with all the negative expectations laid out.
   If you asked me to place a bet on 5000 or 10000 for which price is next met, I'd rather bet on the higher price then the low.    We can easily revisit recent highs, nothing dramatic or any great chasm has opened up between that price and todays price, by BTC standards its just moved a little.   I believe there is far more debris and resistance between here and 5000 then just going back up, so on balance of probability I think its more likely to go up.    Whether it sticks higher or not is another matter but I think a retest is quite likely to occur.

The bears need to get through some major levels first.

There is a monthly support from June which hasn't been tested yet. On Coinbase, the level is $7,427. There is also the 61.8% retracement of the uptrend in the $7,200s. That's the first area to watch.

After that, we have the apex of last year's triangle around $6,500 and the 70.5% retracement level at $6,300. Then in the $5,400s we have weekly pivots from April and the 78.6% retracement level.

If the market busts through all these (and that's a big "if") then you'll get your $5K.

What does it means next?  Tomorrow, next week, next month?  There is huge chance Bitcoin will be worth around $5000 at some point in future. What is magical of prediction and speculation is that you at least slightly time it out.

$7996 just now and every price is of a possibility ever since. And if we'll hit $5000 again, so what? it's just another chance for everyone to take it while it's cheap but it won't take long that much.

We're already used to the volatility and surprises that bitcoin is bringing us so this isn't really a surprise anymore. We might see $5000 again or we might see the opposite movement of it later, I'll wait then.

Get ready for the surprise, BTC market is always unpredictable. We may see $10000 again in 2 weeks. I hope this was the last shake from the bears otherwise we would see $6000 again. But the volatility of the Bitcoin market decreased a lot in recent months. So there is no chance for a crash like that. But yes some people want the price to go as low as $5000 these people sold their bags already and waiting to buy at cheap price again. But this won't happen this time because of no bcash drama this year. Though I won't take a look at price if I were investing for long term history says buying bitcoin in any day is profitable if you hold. But If you can buy at a cheap price always helps to keep the mind positive without tension. But still, hold and don't look back at price for few years buying right now still will be profitable.

Too optimistic just like the ol' kwuckduck!
Volatility, buying/selling shouldn't be a problem, besides, in November and December the price of Bitcoin increases usually so wear your hat and your gloves son, it is gonna be a wild winter

I like your optimism, you already accepted the fate of Bitcoin by giving these numbers to be their final line.
It's been a while since we do witnessed the stable price of Bitcoin at $10k and now we are facing another unexpected price that would soon going to be a bearish.

I think there is something wrong in the market or is it just because almost everything is starting to fail. We still have 3 more months left before the 2020 hits maybe this is the right time to expect the bullrun.

Aww, yeah, the bears are coming out again, I did miss you guys, why did it take so long for you to emerge? Surely the 10k dithering for weeks should have convinced you already =D

But anyway, yeah, let the chart sharing begin! And if this is the winter that will keep us cold for the next few months, I can't say I'm going to complain too much. Accumulation mode always on!

Yes, BTC can be at 5k USD again, but can be at 15k USD again too 

Of course we are here to "speculate", and there's no way to predict BTC correctly, all analysis and predictions are pure based on lucky, so let's see
I bet we are be at the 10k USD level for some time, not 5k USD

the bears sure are coming out in numbers! and each bear target seems lower than the next. first $7k, then $6k, then $5k......

you got a chart for us, Pipdips? why $5000---horizontal support, fibonacci levels? i do see that april consolidation range of $5000-$5500 and that does seem like a likely support. but i'm not yet convinced we need to dip that far.

it looks like we're still testing the may/june consolidation range and haven't triggered a breakdown on the weekly bollinger bands. i've seen some pretty nasty fakeouts in bitcoin before. let's wait and see.

It could be and it could be not, but if this is the safe level I am sure OK with it as long as it is not forever staying on that level, and we see that we are now in $8000 USD mark for many days now, the resistance can sure be seen because the price is not really moving, Well I am used to this kind of scenario the volatile thing is pretty normal for Bitcoin so I am not worrying so much, But in the midst of a bull market is pretty questionable, but what can I say we are entering the holiday season And I surely expect dump on the end of each year every time there is a holiday season.

$5,000 will be the next support range and $8,500 will be the resistance, and no higher.
 
Welcome to the new Winter Time kiddies.  Better bundle up!!