Topic: Bitcoin Repeating History: TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns (Read 1277 times)

Thought it was time to review some of last year's technical analysis before attempting to provide any fresh perspectives.
Part 1 and 3 have therefore been re-activated due to their relevance returning with Part 10 also cointuing to remain relevant:

This doesn't mean I'm suddenly "bearish" again, I'm still relatively neutral, whilst acknowledging the bearish possibility of falling lower - I can't ignore my own TA!
Similar to Tone Vays who thinks there's a 10% of breaking new lows, I also believe there is a low chance (around 20-25%) of falling lower than the new $3,850 low.
I will be providing some neutral/bullish analysis next week, after the Weekly close, as given the uber-bearish sentiment in the markets, I'm feeling more bullish again 

Updated OP summary with results of initial targets (❓/❌/✔) for transparency sake. Looks like my summarized target has been achieved 


Prediction reference: Published on TradingView (Part 5) September 17th 2019 @ $10,265.

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As a reminder, we are now at the horizontal resistance level of the descending triangle breakdown, in case you might be wondering why price is facing resistance:



Although a descending triangle from many months ago may seem irrelevant, on the bigger picture, it's still the resistance level that needs to be broken (and found support above) for price to move higher. Fortunately, this isn't the first time testing this resistance level, so the chances of making breaking above and turning it into support is more likely, though bare in mind this acted as support for 3 months (July-September), hence acting as resistance for 3 months would not be surprising (October-January).

Credit to @Sawcruhteez for reminding me of this resistance level, despite the confirmation of a cup & handle pattern with a target of $11,800. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see prices move upto $10K this week based on 2019 possible fractal, followed by a pull back, then further upside:

OP finally updated, a few parts no longer active, only a few that remain relevant now. Half have now completed.

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More relevant is some TA from the past few months:


Will probably update this monthly from now on, unless the there are major changes in how these 3 final parts are looking.

OP updated with 5 (out of 10) Parts still active. These remaining extrapolations are now giving very mixed signals, despite continuing to be useful and accurate, implying long-term indecision in the market that will likely be clarified in the coming weeks, or by next month. For bullish TA from November-December 2019, click here.

For reference sake, here are a couple of charts (on the 4hr and Daily timeframe) published last week that remain very relevant today.
Is the bear market over? Far from it, but as others have put it, we are at a crossroads.


See also related longer-term TA:

Taking into account this TA series, as well as some other technical analysis published here via trading view...

Here are my guesstimates* for the 2019/2020 low:

$6500 - 20%
$5000 - 30% (50%)
$4500 - 25% (75%)
$3600 - 15% (90%)
$3200 - 7% (97%)
$2500 - 2% (99%)
$2000 - 0.9% (99.9%)
$1500 - 0.1% (100%)

Source: https://twitter.com/DragonOnRedirec/status/1206893152336011265
Related: 📊Dragonvslinux Technical Analysis 📈 3 Month Graphical Review 📉

*Guessimates are estimates using a mixture of guesswork and calculation. Guesstimates are subject to change based on outcome of current and future TA.


Updates to TA Series coming next week, given recent relevant price movements.

Updates finally made, most relevantly another two patterns have completed as quoted below.
Part 3 Re-Activated making all other Active Parts relevant again. This TA series has become increasingly relevant as time goes on.
Also see first bullish accumulation long call at the bottom

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Related TA, specifically to Part 10, but also the general theme of Bitcoin incessantly repeating history:


Updated to active parts next week.

Part 2 completed.
Within a margin of error, in this case $116 (approx 1%), I'm boldly claiming that the original descending triangle target of $6,410 has been achieved.
It's usual for descending triangles to come close to their measured move targets, but just shy of it - as too many investors are watching these levels.



Could we go lower? Of course.
Could this be the bottom for the year? Absolutely!
Has the bearish triangle target been reached? I believe so.
Am I bullish? Short term yes, mid-term neutral, long-term always bullish.
Relevance? A bearish targeting lasting more than 2 months is finally over.

Updates to rest of active Parts coming soon...

Yes, bitcoin repeats history. Let's take high and low and halving since 2013 (the year where bitcoin hit its first $1000 value). In 2014, the then ATH was ~$1200 and prices kept lowering through out the year. Same happened in 2018 after the current ATH of $19,800 happened. In 2015 the low happened which was around 20% of ATH which was below $200. So far the low after current ATH is ~$3800 happened in 2019 which approximately 20% of current ATH.

In 2016, the second halving happened and in 2020 we are going to have the 3rd halving. During the time of second halving there is no significant bull run but prices were in bull mode compared to the time of lowest price happening.

It seems right now there is no ACTIVE BULL market but we are in bullish mode by considering the lowest prices after the current ATH. This may last up to end of 2020 (even after the 3rd halving). But, we may have new ATH by end of 2020 like how 2016 ended and how 2017's beginning had a new ATH.

Hence, in 2021 we may have the new ATH of next bull cycle which may be 100x of lowest prices of current cycle. Because, current ATH of ~$20k is 100x of low of previous cycle which was $200.

Bumping this due to the relevancy. Will wait for the Weekly close before updating the charts, but goes to show the value of identifying longer term trends and previous patterns.

Active parts updated. These longer term extrapolations and patterns are looking more relevant than ever as we return to bearish price movements.
Changes include Part 1 now gone from relevant to similar, making all 7 remaining active patterns similar to previous price history.
The OP has also been updated with up-to-date screenshots as was becoming a bit updated.

Active Parts updated (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10). More bearish bias confirmed (2, 3, 5), as well as neutral/bullish (6, 9, 10) bias confirmed compared to last week.
A lot of mixed price signals suggesting a lack of definite direction at the moment. Best to remain neutral until further confirmation in my opinion, despite individual biases.

A few random thoughts from charts from this week while awaiting for weekly charts to close to update parts 1-10.

Bear trend or bull flag?



Do we need to fill the VPVR gap?



50 & 100 Week MA bullish cross incoming?



Ascending broadening wedge forming?



Or really just another bearish descending triangle?



So many potential patterns, all mean nothing without confirmation.


Fear & Greed Index:

End up week updates for all active patterns.
Main updates include 2012 descending triangle no longerappearing relevant (now labeled as inactive).
2014 slow grind reversal now looking more relevant again so now considered similar (sorry folks).
Part 6 & 9 (TD based analysis) are playing out nicely so worth looking at again.

No longer updating patterns that were previously declared completed (Parts 7 & 8 ):

Here it is already, published last month. The Red 1 monthly candle suggested it was time to make a big decision, either much more downside or the month being more of an "anomaly" and last dip before the bull-run. So far the price has followed the bullish path by flipping to a Green 1, that I imagine at this rate will close a Green 1 too. This is bullish, I agree. Hence the neutral outlook on the monthly chart, despite the bearish scenarios that could have (but didn't) happen.

Once the month closes, I'll consider doing another piece of TA, but until then, I don't see the relevance as the intra-week movements are just noise.



I'm definiately not denying this time it's very different, hence being able to draw a series of different scenarios that can ensue. You're right I haven't done enough comparisons with 2013 and 2017, due to lack of similarities I've been able to find. If you have any suggestions I'm all ears by the way, I could do with the inspiration. Although I feel this is similar to how people suggested I compared "bullish" descending triangles instead of just "bearish" ones, until they realised that generally speaking they don't exist for BTC. However think Part 5 is a fair comparison of what could occur during a bull market, and is playing out, regarding a "quick dip" scenario.


FYI I'm still hodling long, despite the bearish analysis. I even bought the dip at $7800 and $7500, and a bit of the pump at $9800, so probably not as "bearish" as you may think.

yes, time frame is crucial to this assessment. pull up a monthly chart---we need some perspective.

there is no comparison between 2013, 2017, and......now. the death crosses from april 2014 and april 2018 came after multi-year bull markets that ended with exponential gains and parabolic bubbles. the current situation is very different. june-october = the first pullback of this bull market on the monthly time frame. you think it's the end?!

this correction (and where we are in the market cycle) looks much more like fall 2012 or early 2016---in the early stages a multi-year bull market. in that sense, the late 2015 failed death cross is a much better comparison IMO.

I'd like to believe that, but this death cross came at the end of the bull market (and relative highs), not the end (or lows) of the bear market (like in 2015).
But obviously this is subjective to the time frame you are looking at, etc, etc. I think it's most likely this death cross will be unique in it's own way too.

context is everything. the death crosses that actually followed through occurred after bubble pops, in april 2014 and april 2018. these aren't representative of our current market position.

the failed death cross in september 2015 seems like a much more accurate comparison---the first pullback after a long term bullish reversal/trend change.