Topic: 51% Attack - page 3. (Read 1880 times)

Even if they bankrupt the large farms with this type of thing there would always be a collective out there who could mine and keep the chain going also if the large players were to be forced out it would just hand the network back to the small miners that in turn would boost adoption further as more smaller miners jumped back on the chain.  It would take some time for the DIFF to re-adjust back down but the attack would not stop miners from coming online if they thought they could get a slice of the pie again.

More people than ever are starting to understand how to store there crypto in paper wallets or hardware wallets I think over time we will see more security coming to the way we store our crypto so hackers would have a hard time hacking cold or hardware wallets.

Exchanges too are stepping up there security what we would like to see is more DEX markets that actually have some liquidity in them the reason people don't trade in them now is they have very little price action or traders there but the more regulation pushes on these places maybe in time we will see a solid DEX start that has some liquidity and can attract traders and investors to it.

Such an attack can lead to nothing significant, but an attackers wallet transaction reversal, and also such an attack may result in chain split, where most of the honest nodes will not follow the attackers version of blockchain.

I would seriously want to see a government attempting that, so that we can make a a$$ out of them. Just imagine spending Billions of taxpayers money on attempting a stunt like this and then having it failed due to a fork maneuver to counter it.  

Even better yet, messing them around by jumping from one coin to the next to waste even more of their money wasted on this. Bitcoiners will quickly shift to the next Alt coin or the "new" Bitcoin with the same features, if it was known that a government funded mining operation was trying to sabotage the experiment.

The public will crucify those government employees, when they find out that they are wasting tax money on stupid projects like that and possibly risk being voted out in the next election.  

Both GDP and GDP PPP have a per capital value, and in both cases is it divided by population.
I showed you that example because although in PPP terms they make 26k$ a year, in real life where it matters they only do 12k$!
And at the end of the year, they can't afford 2,6 BTC because BTC doesn't give a damn about PPP but about real $, with PPP $ you might buy bitcoin cash or bitcoin gold but not BTC.  

But yeah, we're going off-topic, let's continue this (if) in the economics section.
Back to the mining


There is always the risk, that doesn't mean it will happen, and with almost nothing, we can really do, so, what's the point of not sleeping the nights?
And if someone is bent on spending billions or tens of billions attacking it continuously, even if we find a bulletproof solution to a 51% attack, there is still the possibility of a Sybil attack then....

If we talk about somebody with unlimited money, unlimited political power, nothing is safe!


Hihi, I remembered we had a discussion like that, and on this, we agree!

How? with 2,000 deaths of coronavirus? more than that die from car accidents every month in the U.S alone, but even with that "$34 billion were wiped out of apple alone", oil prices feel from $68 to $52 as china imports the most crude oil in the world, everything has been affected by the small and silent half cough of china, china is a "global supply chain", look around your house and you will see china in every corner, if the virus is not contained and cured soon enough, things will get pretty ugly all over the globe.


GDP per capita is not the same as GDP (PPP), you seem to have gotten things mixed up a bit, the example you used is PPP per capita which is pretty dependant on the population size, that's why you see Qatar is placed first but 51th in GDP (PPP). you should probably browse this website http://statisticstimes.com/index.php to get a better understanding of the differences, although this is really going off-topic.


Money!


The king can have 10 countries and 1000 companies work for him to collect all the miners he needs, money buys everything, he can even buy mining farms in China or any other place.




There is no need to keep this a secret, the King's country can simply say they are going to support bitcoin mining by holding a large mining farm if people find out, a dozen of mining gears get moved around, does anyone know where did the last million S9s go to and who bought them?? anyone who has both power and money can potentially and easily accumulate all the hashrate they need, in fact, the Chinese president now does "technically" have control over all the mining farms in China and can perform the attack if he wants, but you are suggesting that he probably wouldn't, therefore there is no risk?


There must be, it's to be or not to be, in 2041 BTC has to be worth nearly half a million dollars  for the chain to be as secured against 51% as is today, if it's worth only 100k then it will be 80% less secure than it is now.

I do believe in the role of economy, more people and businesses owning bitcoin gives it more value and more security as whoever uses it should at some point "invest" a portion of what they have to secure the network, I don't discard that role, but there is nothing wrong with planning for a technical-based solution rather than completely counting on the assumption that "nobody will perform a 51% because it's expensive or difficult".

First:

China is really coughing to death and I don't see anything going to hell!


Because PPP is a lie to make poor people feel better, telling them that eating a rotten piece of meat in N'Djamena is the same as having breakfast at La Coupole.

Let me break this down for you:

GDP PPP per capita:
 United States   62,606
 Romania   26,447 (picked the poorest country in EU without Cyrillic letters)

So in theory, for every 6 BTC an American can buy a Romanian would be able to pick up 2.6 BTC...a 2.3 ratio!
BUT that's a lie!!!!

The average wage in the US is 63k while in Romania ~ 7200. the ratio just went to 8!
But after all that people buy for living the average American is left with 8000 while Romanian pay 93% of their income for basic food and healthcare and stuff and are left with 500$.

So, while an American the end of the year would be able to buy 0.8 BTC the Romanian would be able to buy less 0.05BTC
This although the PPP told us that the difference is  2.3 NOT 16!


On paper, it's all possible but in reality...

First, how do you get that 4,285,714 s9?

And this is when economic strat to play their role, bitmain doesn't have that many chips and they need to also put an order on TSMC for that and if TSMC is busy, could it still be done? If its this huge order and must be done quickly just how much not are only prices going to spike, not even mentioning bribing a lot of guys to keep quiet? Not even mentioning the fact that for 2000MW of power you would need something well over a billion, two billion would be simply the gas powerplant the cheapest option.

Could this be done in secrecy? No way!
So until you manage to manufacture that many miners build the infrastructure, ship and install them there is a lot of time to take some measures, and code is pretty faster than a cargo ship.

So it is possible, on paper at least! Should we be worried about this scenario? I don't think so!
And anyway, there is nothing we could really do if someone is bent on spending billions or tens of billions attacking it!

I find it amusing how you take a measurement scale that is well known and considered and say it means nothing, GDP PPP is not less important than nominal GDP,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)



Using GDP PPP china surpasses the U.S using the Nominal GDP China is not far from the U.S, taking share in world exports china has a much larger share, I don't understand why are you underestimating the economic strength of China. If China coughs twice it will also send the entire global economy to hell.


We are kind of going off-topic here ( a lot of economics) but I have a better argument to put us back on track, the U.S does not ban Bitcoin, they don't have a problem with it, China performs a 51%:

or both China and the U.S have no problem with Bitcoin but UAE, Saudi, Iran does, or even any other prince/king decides to play with 2-5 Billion Dollars (because he can)

Current hashrate is about 120 million TH , half that is 60  million TH that is 4,285,714 Antminer S9 or 4285714*80$ = $342,857,120 , or 1,090,909 T17+ (55th) *1000$ = $1,090,909,090 (slightly higher than 1 billion) and just about 2,000 megawatts worth of power, I am pretty sure a king or prince can spare 1 billion + maybe half a billion for infrastructure and 2,000 megawatt worth of electricity.

Attacking bitcoin for economic profit does not make sense, but attacking it for fun, experimental purposes or protecting one's economy makes a lot of sense, the above calculation is just an estimate, of course, if someone decides to buy that many gears they will cause gears prices to rise, but to what extent? another billion dollars? two? that much money is still pretty affordable to many countries and individuals around the globe, after the halving a huge chunk of that hash rate will leave the network for good and if the price does not moon, the attack will be a lot cheaper.

I find it really naive to think that X person won't do something in one way because Z person can do it in another way, ignoring the possibility of something happening is a terrible idea, IMO anything that has the slightest chance of happening must be discussed seriously and not ignored.

No, it doesn't. We don't actually "hold cryptocurrencies". What kind of law could the politicians propose/make to outlaw this new kind of ledger? Should developing such a ledger be illegal? Why?

Gdp means nothing...sspecially when it is :

I wasn't talking about the US banning only mining, but banning usage. Who would care about mining where there is nothing left to do with them?

The constitution isn't preventing the government to ban anything aside from things that go against human rights.
Just how they've banned drugs, pesticides, cars, and Huawei equipment they can ban everything they want.


As others have said also, I stand by my opinion, why would be something that technical?
Raid coinbase with a SWAT team and from 3 billion in equipment you can do it with 10 million worth of it.  

I am not sure if I am underestimating their power or you are overestimating it, the U.S has been slapping sanctions on Russia, North Korea, Iran, China, Syria, well you name it, and the results are not as bad, the earth has not stopped spinning.



The projected results are even worse



But what do I know? I might be really "underestimating the power of the US"


BTC could be more like a threat to the U.S dollar, this does not mean it has to be at the same level of threat to any other economy.


So you really think if the U.S bans bitcoin mining for an example, the rest of the world will do the same? Also, I would like to hear your comment about how would the U.S government go about banning bitcoin anyway, does their constitution give the government enough rights to do that?


First of all by admitting that a 51% attack on BTC is very possible, and is IMO the most powerful way to fight bitcoin, way more effective than simply trying to ban it.

As far as being technically prepared for such an attack, well I might be the worst person to be asked  , but some interesting idea's like "the delayed block submission penalty." or "Komodo’s Delayed Proof of Work".

Other methods like increasing confirmations required by merchants and individuals, perhaps someone might make an automated system that sensors the migration of a large enough portion of hashrate (assuming the hash power that is used to perform the 51% has already been on the main blockchain),  community consensus to change the mining algothroim to a GPU-Only algthorim so if the attack happens it won't last long.

I don't know, those are off the top of my head, I am sure more intelligent people like yourself have better ways to prepare for such an attack rather than thinking that it simply won't happen:

And one for you too...
You're underestimating the power of the US and its influence, and this comes from an EU citizen, not some 2nd amendment freak.

Let's cut China out of the picture because you know that if the US sees BTC as a threat the Chinese would have gone with the ban already.
Who is left, Russia and Iran, with an economy the size of texas? North Korea? And even those won't encourage usage, all of them are far more control orientated to allow the spread of cryptocurrencies, they won't take a bit of the poison apple just to piss off the US.
As for Europe, we're still too heavily interlinked with the US, even if some might try to counter this some will ally with the Us view.

And since we're at 51% scenario, imagine how this "ban" or whatever it is called would affect the chain security...
We would be lucky if we would drop only to 1k in the first phase.


How can you be prepared for this?

That makes sense, however, there is an essential factor you seem to be missing, a single government can only enforce rules upon its citizens, if the U.S bans crypto altogether, the Russians, Chinese, Iranians and perhaps some European countries would want to buy it more than anything, banning crypto is a risky move to any government if done individually because jumping out of the train does not make it stop, it could simply keep moving and you will be left behind, you need to actually STOP the train, and that would be by "destroying" bitcoin and not just ban it.
 
I pretty much like Saifedean Ammous's (the author of The Bitcoin Standard) statement where he talks about killing bitcoin


Whenever there are incentives to using bitcoin, people will use it, some countries have up to the death penalty for smoking weed and a mandatory 10 years for owning 1 gram of weed, I have personally lived in a country with such rules, and almost half of them smoke weed on the daily.

Another problem in banning bitcoin is that in most countries law amendment can only be adopted by the national legislature and not the government. In a democracy-based country, the legislature represents the people, if the people want bitcoin you can't ban it that easily, it won't work.

I could go on and on forever explaining how banning bitcoin is not easy, in fact, a 51% attack would be easier in terms of the government's limitations, but even that might end up ugly for them.

With that said, a 51% attack by government/s is doable and we as a community should be prepared for such attacks rather than completely ignoring them, just my thought!.

I think the government does that thing because they do not believe the essence of the bitcoin or any cryptocurrency. Some so many people dont believe in bitcoin because they consider the cryptocurrency as a threat to many government agencies and establishments that process the transaction between money. Still, bitcoin is so helpful in many ways. It would be hard for the government to remove or to delete the bitcoins because if they are successful in doing so, there are still many currencies that can be valuable as bitcoin, there are so many currencies here in this forum, the government will find it so hard to delete it all, they will need a billion of money to do that. Some countries accept the cryptocurrency and this so good for them, some article that I have read is that some students use bitcoin to pay their tuition in the universities. Why can other countries not do that thing? Where it is so beneficial to many of us.

I said outlaw. To make illegal under a country's constitution. You too didn't get the context. You believe Satoshi is liable for a crime because he invented Bitcoin? You believe all coders can be imprisoned for building/coding decentralized networks? You believe it's constitutional for the government to convict users for using, and running software for a new kind of database? 1s and 0s.

true, but the cat is already out of the bag. if a crazy government some day pulled something like that then it will only raise a lot of alarms among regular people who were not using any kind of encryption for anything they were doing so far and they will start thinking about using it.
it's like the Snowden effect, although US Gov has been snooping but nobody was thinking about protecting themselves, when they found out about it everyone was thinking about protecting their privacy.

I told you in my previous post
Just how they can allow C12H22O11  which is sugar and ban C21H23NO5 which is heroin.
Just how pinging a poe server is not a crime but a dos attack is, it's basically the same thing, right?
Are viruses and malware attacks legal? They are just a bunch of 0s and 1s.
I a crime having a database with the SSN of a thousand people?


I sometimes think people are really underestimating what an insane government or political party can do!
If one of them would want to that they will!

Fortunately for most of us living in democracies, no matter how much you criticize the "authoritarian" governments, nothing on this scale will be done against cryptos. But good luck if you're living in Turkmenistan or other centra Asia former URSS republics.
You won't be wondering what they can do  anymore!

The U.K. already proposed to forbid publishing open source, non custodial wallet software in one of their AMLD5 proposals. Luckily they decided not to include that rule in their final draft, but they are definitely eyeballing it.

You didn't get the context. The question actually was, what can any government do to outlaw the writing of code/development of software for a "new kind of database"?

Let's start
- ban all atms
- banks must stop servicing any cryptocurrency exchanges
- merchants are not allowed to offer bitcoin payments

We're back at SR levels in a second. What are you going to use is for? Look how shiny your 1s and 0s are?

Besides, we're talking about an extreme scenario here, some of you might be too young or have lived in a democracy all your life to even grasp what a dictatorship regime can do. They wouldn't even need a law, just grab 20 people who are known for dealing with cryptos make a lot of noise about it and throw them in prison for 40 years. On the forum, everybody is tough, in real life, 99% of those that aren't afraid of anything will piss their pants the moment the police knocks at the door at 2 am.

Let me quote :



People are thinking this wrong.

It is like a government would suddenly buy 2 million s17 and immediately launch an attack. Why?

Even a 9 yo would come with a better plan. Why not build gradually your hashrate?
Since it's the actual state doing so they get a zero cents electric bill, they even earn some coins which they can dump immediately on the market, pushing the price down, making it harder for other miners to keep mining and thus pushing down the actual hash rate that is done by independent miners.

If they add 30 PH of hash rate now and manage to get the price back at 8k 1/3 of the old true hashpower will be gone as almost any s9 will be losing money unless free energy. Do I have to add also the fact that if they manage to get ahold of 20-25% of that rate they would simply mine empty blocks and we all know where that would lead to?

Yeah overnight, the attack is not possible but if they would want and put all resources on table 3 billion is nothing.

But again, WHY would they want to do such a thing?

Kjoas76 presented a valid debate about confiscating ASICs to try to stop Bitcoin, but using them to successfully 51% attack the network? Very debatable, https://twitter.com/bitcoin/status/1225544194946555904


No. What kind of law could the any government make to outlaw software/code for a ledger?