6 blocks an hour my ass! - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Fjordbit

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Quote from: SchizophrenicX on June 23, 2011, 02:55:38 PM

Thats what the difficulty adjustment is meant to do. The inflation rate is kept constant. And thus further proves the point that difficulty has got nothing to do with exchange rates. The supply unrolls in a fixed expected rate. What was meant by 'fixed'. However the exchange rate is driven by demand.

So your thesis is that the fact that it takes $8.6M worth of computer equipment running maybe around 5.4MW to generate 300 btc in an hour has no bearing on the price than if it were just a $100 computer with a $56 card running at 60W. Sounds logical to me!

Or maybe, just maybe, it's all related.

(numbers based on 9603.45 GH/s, $900/GH, .56 KW/GH)

ribuck

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Quote from: proudhon on June 23, 2011, 12:57:46 PM

Interestingly, if you average the total number of blocks since the genesis block to now it comes out to about 6.14 blocks/hour.

The initial difficulty was originally chosen so that the expected block rate was well under 6 per hour, because there was no need to generate a lot of blocks until there were a reasonable number of transactions.

You really need to exclude all of the "difficulty=1" blocks from any calculation of average blocks per hour.

SchizophrenicX

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"I'm not psychic; I'm just damn good"

Thats what the difficulty adjustment is meant to do. The inflation rate is kept constant. And thus further proves the point that difficulty has got nothing to do with exchange rates. The supply unrolls in a fixed expected rate. What was meant by 'fixed'. However the exchange rate is driven by demand.

proudhon

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Interestingly, if you average the total number of blocks since the genesis block to now it comes out to about 6.14 blocks/hour.

talldude

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Quote from: bcpokey on June 23, 2011, 09:50:02 AM

Quote from: talldude on June 23, 2011, 09:16:57 AM

Quote from: Fjordbit on June 22, 2011, 07:10:10 PM

There are a lot of people here crying about the difficulty increases, but at the same time all the difficulty increases before haven't hurt profitability. The reason why is because they have been large enough to drive the price up.

Difficulty has no effect on price. A high price will induce people to come into the market, but a high difficulty will have no effect on price.

The only thing that drives price is demand, since supply is essentially fixed at 6.something million coins right now.

Not exactly "fixed". 7200 new BTC are generated every day. So every 9 days 1% of 6.somethng million coins are added to the supply. Miners are still somewhat a part of the game as they are dropping a relatively large amount of coin to market all the time (whereas the bigboys holding a majority of the coin are sitting on them, like mr. 500,000 bitcoins to be stolen and sold off on mtgox)

It's 0.17% of current outstanding amount generated per day right now (about 12k per day currently since we're moving at ~10 blocks an hour). That's why I said essentially fixed - the supply is not shifting at any appreciable rate to cause any kind of effect on price. And in a few hundred blocks difficulty will ramp up dramatically.

bcpokey

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Quote from: talldude on June 23, 2011, 09:16:57 AM

Quote from: Fjordbit on June 22, 2011, 07:10:10 PM

There are a lot of people here crying about the difficulty increases, but at the same time all the difficulty increases before haven't hurt profitability. The reason why is because they have been large enough to drive the price up.

Difficulty has no effect on price. A high price will induce people to come into the market, but a high difficulty will have no effect on price.

The only thing that drives price is demand, since supply is essentially fixed at 6.something million coins right now.

Not exactly "fixed". 7200 new BTC are generated every day. So every 9 days 1% of 6.somethng million coins are added to the supply. Miners are still somewhat a part of the game as they are dropping a relatively large amount of coin to market all the time (whereas the bigboys holding a majority of the coin are sitting on them, like mr. 500,000 bitcoins to be stolen and sold off on mtgox)

talldude

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Quote from: Fjordbit on June 22, 2011, 07:10:10 PM

There are a lot of people here crying about the difficulty increases, but at the same time all the difficulty increases before haven't hurt profitability. The reason why is because they have been large enough to drive the price up.

Difficulty has no effect on price. A high price will induce people to come into the market, but a high difficulty will have no effect on price.

The only thing that drives price is demand, since supply is essentially fixed at 6.something million coins right now.

supermine

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This discussion is very interesting, however falls short to taking into account the most important factor: Greed and the capitalist system. Almost all westerners were socialized in the context of capitalism, hence we think money is the only -true- thing that can make you rich. Familiy, Tradition, Christianity (if you're an atheist: putting others before you), all these things are important to us, but I think we can all agree that money is a tad more important to the most of us.

I remember the pre-Yahoo! days, when onliners used a mouse mover plugin for NetScape to generate ad views, earning below 20 bucks a month out of it. For many of us, BitCoin Mining is no different - we perceive it as a money generator. So, as long as there is even 1 cent/h to be made out of BitCoin mining, miners will keep coming in, until it is unprofitable for all of us. This day will come very soon - my feelings tell me in 4-8 months.

In my opinion the single group of people that will keep mining then are people who see the true value behind BitCoin Mining: Ensuring a safe, federalised, pro-privacy currency, that will be another small wheel to make the world a better place. Just my 2 cents.

--
https://identi.ca/wikiterms

gentakin

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Quote from: jjiimm_64 on June 23, 2011, 07:45:14 AM

well, I dont know home many blocks per hour has been found today, but BTCGuild has NOT found one for almost 8 hours now...

It's just a stats display error. The stats fail to update. I hope it will be fixed soon.

jjiimm_64

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well, I dont know home many blocks per hour has been found today, but BTCGuild has NOT found one for almost 8 hours now...

Departure

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^^ exactly

doesn't matter what the bitcoin is spent on(transaction fee's ect..) it still is in circulation ... Hence the reason it is not a consumable, that transaction fee is still on the net and my point is there is more supply than demand right now, saying that the supply will never change it will always grow(upto 21000000) but the demand is only based on popularity, So can we now agree that the cost of mining has no effect on the price of the bitcoin?? getting this into your head as a fact will make everything else clear as mud...

Meni Rosenfeld

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Quote from: Jack of Diamonds on June 23, 2011, 04:44:39 AM

Have you ever heard of transaction fees?
There is only a limited amount of bitcoins that will ever exist (21m) yet transaction fees slowly eat them up as well. Which means there will be less and less of it to pass around as the years roll.

Transaction fees don't eat anything up. They're paid to the miners who then do with them whatever they want.

Jack of Diamonds

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Quote from: tehcodez on June 22, 2011, 12:52:00 PM

Difficulty increases are across the board, whether the new miner with one 4650, or the super miner with 20 rigs of 4x 6990s. Everyone will be affected the same.

No it doesn't. Assuming conservative price rises in the future per BTC, there is a difference between your earnings dropping from $20 per month to $1 per month, or from $19,500 to $975 per month.

For the guy with a 4650, he is just wasting his time in September. The guy with 20x 6990 is still earning way above the cost of electricity so it pays off to keep going for at least a month or two, maybe more.

Quote from: Departure

because supply never gets any lower, it is always there X amount of bitcoins on the net.. it is NOT a consumable

Have you ever heard of transaction fees?
There is only a limited amount of bitcoins that will ever exist (21m) yet transaction fees slowly eat them up as well. Which means there will be less and less of it to pass around as the years roll.

clint25n

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I wonder... when people start dropping out of the race with their rigs, but yet media coverage results in more new people who instead use their existing single video card, I wonder how close difficulty will level off compared to electricity costs. We are all just hoping many rigs get turned off by their owners, but how many more thousands of new people will mine with what they have when they hear about bitcoin.

Departure

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when you start counting pennies as profit you know its time to rethink and leave the mining to the tight asses that spend weeks to gain that extra 1 cent profit(or mining farms where a single cent can make a difference)...

people with there crazy calculation are forgetting the real basics... supply and demand is what drives the value of bitcoin.. and because supply never gets any lower, it is always there X amount of bitcoins on the net.. it is NOT a consumable,and there for needs to become more popular to reduce the supply, even if complete mining halted there is still the bit coins in circulation and wouldn't effect that price at all if there was no demand.. Demand came from the media, now that fase is over the demand reduces but supply continues... hence the bitcoin will lower in value..

evlew

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I disagree that Angelus is trolling.

Although we have all heard it 1000 times, I believe this to be useful information. But apparently some people need to hear it again.

If you don't like it, your probably mad for other reasons

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 11:25:45 AM

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.

I disagree. If you put in .25 (or better yet, a number that would equal the remainder of the difficulty period) in the month field.
Tongue

Then you have approximately what you can expect for the remainder of the difficulty period (BTC earned, not USD value)
Big Difference.

Then adjust difficulty to next anticipated level and calculate again for 8 or 9 days worth. Then sum it up. I feel that is the only way they can be used. and its only for the amount of USD created, not the value.

evlew

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Activity: 406

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I disagree that Angelus is trolling.

Although we have all heard it 1000 times, I believe this to be useful information. But apparently some people need to hear it again.

If you don't like it, your probably mad for other reasons

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 11:25:45 AM

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.

disagree.

tehcodez

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I sure did. Seems like you didn't read either, nor did you look into the context of my claims.

And I don't have to curse to cross-examine...

Besides, what does your expert criticism say about OP...ohh yeah...it doesn't.

sir murray

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Quote from: tehcodez on June 22, 2011, 12:52:00 PM

Quote from: AngelusWebDesign on June 22, 2011, 11:25:45 AM

A few days ago on here, someone was claiming to calculate the income of a 5830, and he calmly stated what a months' income would be -- based on 877K difficulty!

(Newsflash, bro: that difficulty level expires in LESS THAN TWO DAYS! Sorry to burst your bubble)

So you won't get more than 2 days income at this difficulty -- and then you can't count on 1.3M difficulty either, because that will only last 8 or 9 days...

Those monthly income projections are so stupid. That's why you have people wanting to sell/return their mining hardware -- when reality comes a-calling.

Ok, bra...so whats different about the 5830, or any other card, troll? Now you show up here harping on the 5830.

Difficulty increases are across the board, whether the new miner with one 4650, or the super miner with 20 rigs of 4x 6990s. Everyone will be affected the same.

Mining for block generation is for the long haul, and correlates with both difficulty and price. Both can go up, and down, Captain Obvious.

Wow, fuck off, you troll. He wasn't even harping on the 5830. Did you read his post?

Quote

I chimed in when I saw your troll-like behavior show up yet again and mention a 5830 card.

He was posting facts and using the 5830(A POPULAR MINING CARD) as an example. His post was also related to the conversation going on.

You are trolling. Ban pls.

Fjordbit

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firstbits.com/1kznfw

There are a lot of people here crying about the difficulty increases, but at the same time all the difficulty increases before haven't hurt profitability. The reason why is because they have been large enough to drive the price up.

Look at this post to get an understanding of the relationship between price, cost of mining equipment, and difficulty. The fact is that if the difficulty keeps rising, and the price does not go up, then people will stop buying rigs and bringing them online and the difficulty will level. But right now it makes too much sense to invest so people will keep doing so until it no longer makes sense.

Look at what happened on Black Sunday, people who bought rigs shit the bed and started dumping them. If they came upon the price of btc in the 5-10 range, they probably wouldn't have paid money to get in.

The people with rigs already with some portion paid for will have a window in which it makes sense to continue to mine. If demand really does fall out, then you can always sell your cards. This also presents a second wave of arbitrage as you can take the money from sold cards and buy btc with them (if you still want to transact).

Or maybe I should just kvetch and try to turn off new miners. I'm not sure what the protocol here is.

Topic: 6 blocks an hour my ass! - page 2. (Read 7252 times)